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        <title>Government Accountability Shop - Your support keeps NAMELY LIBERTY 100% independent!</title>
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        <pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2026 10:46:52 +0000</pubDate>
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        <![CDATA[ “When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.” ]]>
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        <![CDATA[ “When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.” ]]>
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	<title>Eight people killed by ICE (5) or Border Patrol Agents (3) since January 20th, 2025. Any death is tragic, but these individuals were not blameless. Annual Average Customs &#038; Border Protection Fatal Encounters under Trump are half what they were under Biden</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/eight-people-killed-by-ice-5-or-border-patrol-agents-3-since-january-20th-2025-any-death-is-tragic-but-these-individuals-were-not-blameless-annual-average-customs-border-protection-fatal-enc/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2026 22:24:13 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67436</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Over 600,000 people have been booked into ICE detention centers between January 20th, 2025 and July 31, 2026. At the same time, there have been about 170,000 border apprehensions (155,000 at the southwest-border and another 15,000 nationwide). So with eight dead, that comes to a rate of 0.0010% of these encounters. our about one per [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over 600,000 people have been booked into ICE detention centers between January 20th, 2025 and July 31, 2026 [1]. At the same time, there have been about 170,000 border apprehensions [2] (155,000 at the southwest-border and another 15,000 nationwide). So with eight dead, that comes to a rate of 0.0010% of these encounters. our about one per 100,000 people. We have previously written [3] on comparing the Obama and Trump administrations on issues such as people dying in ICE custody, ICE erroneously arresting U.S. Citizens, and mistakenly deporting US citizens. In all those categories, the Trump administration is doing much better than Obama. Unfortunately, the Biden administration didn’t keep data on these issues. As shown below, even including the eight deaths listed below, Annual average Customs and Border Protection Fatal Encounters under Trump are half what they were under Biden, and that even includes deaths from ICE in Trump but not under Biden. This has become an issue again as ICE shot a Dominican criminal illegal alien on October 8th, 2026. Bill Melugin with Fox News reports [4] on that case: “ICE announces that the Dominican criminal illegal alien shot by ICE in the Bronx yesterday previously fled from ICE in September, and ICE didn’t pursue. Yesterday, ICE says they tried to block him in with several vehicles and he tried to flee again by ramming the ICE cars. ICE says they also had a detainer on him on a prior arrest last year, but NYC released him and ignored the detainer. ICE says because he’s a known flight risk, they now have him in detention outside of New York.” Some perspective is needed also in understanding the difficulties facing these officers. DHS reported a&#160;1,347% increase [5]&#160;in assaults against ICE law enforcement, citing 275 recorded assaults from January through December 2025, compared to 19 during the same period in 2024. DHS reported a&#160;3,200% to 3,300% increase [6]&#160;in vehicular attacks against immigration agents, rising to 68 or more incidents in 2025/early 2026 compared to just 2 incidents during the prior year. In addition, there&#160;is&#160;documented&#160;evidence&#160;that&#160;anti-ICE&#160;protesters&#160;and&#160;activists&#160;have&#160;gone&#160;to&#160;ICE&#160;officers’&#160;homes,&#160;followed&#160;officers&#160;home,&#160;exposed&#160;their&#160;residential&#160;addresses,&#160;and&#160;intimidated&#160;or&#160;threatened&#160;their&#160;families.&#160;Some&#160;incidents&#160;have&#160;resulted&#160;in&#160;criminal&#160;convictions. Partial list of these attacks is shown at the end of this post. It is useful to compare the change in assault on ICE officer to the use of force in ICE Detention Facilities between 2024 and 2025. The assaults on officers seems comparable to the use of force on detainees since neither measures actual injuries. While the increase in the number of use-of-force incidents was only 2.7% of the increase in assaults on ICE officers, it is almost the same as the percentage increase in the number of detainees processed.  Comparing assaults on ICE Officers and Use of Force in ICE Detention Facilities20242025Percent ChangeAssaults&#160;against&#160;ICE&#160;officers&#160;(DHS)19 [7]275 [8]1347%ICE&#160;detention-facility&#160;use-of-force&#160;incidents&#160;(Washington&#160;Post, the 2024 number is calculated&#160;from&#160;the&#160;Post’s&#160;reported&#160;37%&#160;increase)569 [9]780 [10]37%Detainees&#160;processed&#160;(initial&#160;ICE&#160;detention&#160;book-ins)259,837 [11]343,437 [12]32%The number of book-in detentions has two sources: Trac Immigration [13] and Vera Institute of Justice [14]. One comparison is to look at the Customs and Border Protection fatal encounters compiled in the Southern Border Communities Coalition’s CBP file [15], which includes medical deaths and crashes. Its 2025 and 2026 totals mix later ICE cases into the same list, so they will raise the deaths in those two years relative to other years. Even with that inclusion, the data for 2025 shows a lower total of fatal encounters than during any year of the Biden administration. The Southern Border Communities Coalition’s numbers are similar to that for the ACLU of Texas [16], but there numbers only go up to 2023. The Southern Border Communities Coalition is considered a&#160;left-of-center or progressive advocacy organization, and is labor union-funded [17], so these numbers are not biased in favor of Trump. Customs and Border Protection Fatal EncountersSouthern Border Communities Coalition [18]ACLU of Texas [16]YearTotal Fatal EncountersAnnual Average by AdministrationTotal Fatal Encounters20141212201511112016710720171212201817172019171720203520.253720215863202248492023455020243847.252025*332026 Annualize rate* **1624.512* Numbers for these years include ICE cases, so they are inflated relative to earlier years. ** Annualize rate uses data through September (12) and multiplies it by 1.3333. Before looking at individual cases there are three points to make. 1) While any death is tragic, these individuals were not blameless. They would likely be alive today if they hadn’t done things like ram agents with their vehicles or engage in a shoot out with agents or fight them. All of those deaths involve one of those cases. They also involved people not obeying lawful orders by law enforcement. 2) In places such as Minnesota, if local police had been involved to control those interfering with ICE agents, such confrontations would likely have been avoided. 3) If local sanctuary jurisdictions would let ICE pick up illegal aliens who are being released from incarceration, there would likely be fewer problems. It is more dangerous to pick up criminal illegals who are wandering around free. If we have missed any cases, please let us know. Five of these cases, with three of them illegal aliens, involved a ramming, dragging, or trying to run over ICE agents with a car: 
Ruben Ray Martinez (U.S. citizen, South Padre Island, Texas, March 2025, ICE): agents said he rammed a car into an agent [20]. Silverio Villegas González (Mexican national, Chicago area, September 2025, ICE): agents said he hit and dragged an officer with his vehicle [21]. Renee Good (U.S. citizen, Minneapolis, January 2026, ICE): Good&#160;struck an officer with her car [22]&#160;and&#160;ignored verbal orders from an officer [23]. Lorenzo Salgado Araujo (Mexican national, Houston, July 2026, ICE): DHS said he repeatedly fled different scenes and he rammed an ICE vehicle and tried to run over an officer [24]. Joan Sebastián Durán Guerrero (Colombian national, Biddeford, Maine, July 2026, ICE): agents said he tried to flee [25] and rammed officers with his vehicle. “the vehicle attempted to flee the scene and fearing for public safety an officer discharged his weapon [26].”
 Three additional cases all involving Border Patrol agents: 
Ophelia Bauckholt — German national, January 20, 2025, Coventry, Vermont. Killed in a shootout with Border Patrol agents after a vehicle stop near the Canadian border [27]. Alex Pretti — U.S. citizen, January 24, 2026, Minneapolis. Shot by Border Patrol agents; Pretti put himself between officers and people they were trying to arrest, disobeyed orders from officers to stop, got into a physical confrontation with officers, and was carrying a gun [28]. If an officer knows or suspects an individual is armed, any non-compliance—such as reaching toward a waistband, moving hands out of sight, or ignoring commands to stay still—is much more likely to be interpreted as an immediate threat to the officer’s life. Standard concealed carry instruction explicitly advises permit holders to act with extreme caution [29] to ensure officers do not feel endangered. Video footage [30] from a Minneapolis protest on January 13, 2026 (11 days before his death) captured Pretti cursing at federal immigration officers, spitting at them, and kicking/breaking the taillight of a federal SUV. Isaias Sanchez Barboza — Mexican national, December 11, 2025, Rio Grande City, Texas. Shot by a Border Patrol agent while allegedly trying to flee back toward Mexico. An agent tried to arrest Sanchez Barbosa, a fight broke out [31] within about four minutes, the agent radioed for help, and he fired in self-defense during the struggle.
 Cases not directly connected to immigration enforcement, but sometimes included in lists of deaths related to ICE and border patrol agents. 
Keith Porter [32] (U.S. citizen, Northridge, California, December 2025, off-duty ICE agent): DHS described it as an “active shooter” situation in which the agent responded to gunfire and acted in self-defense after Porter allegedly pointed a rifle. Porter’s family and attorneys say he was firing celebratory shots into the air for New Year’s and posed no threat; a rifle was recovered. The case has been under local LAPD and district attorney review (with family calls for charges or a grand jury). It was not an on-duty immigration enforcement operation.⁠ [33] James Douglas McMillan [34] (no mention of non-citizen status, Sierra Blanca, Texas, March 2026, Border Patrol): He fled a Border Patrol checkpoint after a drug dog alerted, then fired at pursuing officers (including BORTAC/Border Patrol) and civilians during a high-speed chase in a reportedly stolen vehicle. He was shot and killed in a multi-agency response (primarily described as involving Texas DPS troopers returning fire, with Border Patrol involved in the pursuit and life-saving efforts). It began at a border checkpoint but was a multi-agency shootout and began as a drug enforcement response.⁠ [35] Jonah Neal [36] (U.S. citizen, Memphis, Tennessee, May 2026, Homeland Security Investigations): The HSI agent involved was there as part of the federal law enforcement surge Trump directed for Memphis, not a standard immigration enforcement operation. The agent was assigned to the&#160;Memphis Safe Task Force, a multi-agency operation created by a presidential memorandum signed by President Donald Trump on September 15, 2025 (“Restoring Law and Order in Memphis”). Members of the Memphis Safe Task Force responded to a call about a man armed with a gun who was threatening to harm himself. They encountered Jonah Neal inside the residence with multiple weapons. Outlets such as CBS News includes this as people killed “during Trump’s deportation crackdown [37],” but that is difficult to understand the connection here. Kenneth Richard Sok [38] (U.S. citizen, Blythe, California, July 2026, Border Patrol): Agents attempted to pull him over for unspecified reasons. He fled in a pursuit, struck a pedestrian (who was airlifted), then got out and allegedly charged at agents with a sword, injuring one. Agents shot and killed him. He likely ran from agents and then attacked them because he was later connected by Long Beach police to a fatal hit-and-run of a bicyclist days earlier (ruled a homicide by the medical examiner). It was not publicly confirmed as an immigration enforcement action.⁠ [39]
 Here is the list of where anti-ICE activists went to ICE officers’ homes. Partial list of cases where anti-ICE&#160;protesters&#160;and&#160;activists&#160;have&#160;gone&#160;to&#160;ICE&#160;officers’&#160;homes,&#160;followed&#160;officers&#160;home,&#160;exposed&#160;their&#160;residential&#160;addresses,&#160;and&#160;intimidated&#160;or&#160;threatened&#160;their&#160;familiesLocationDate&#160;of&#160;incidentDescriptionSupporting&#160;evidenceBaldwin&#160;Park,&#160;California28-Aug-25Three&#160;anti-ICE&#160;activists&#160;followed&#160;an&#160;ICE&#160;officer&#160;from&#160;downtown&#160;Los&#160;Angeles&#160;to&#160;his&#160;home,&#160;livestreamed&#160;the&#160;pursuit,&#160;announced&#160;his&#160;identity&#160;to&#160;neighbors,&#160;and&#160;encouraged&#160;others&#160;to&#160;come&#160;to&#160;the&#160;location.&#160;His&#160;wife&#160;and&#160;two&#160;young&#160;children&#160;witnessed&#160;the&#160;confrontation.&#160;The&#160;family&#160;subsequently&#160;moved.&#160;Two&#160;women&#160;were&#160;convicted&#160;of&#160;felony&#160;stalking&#160;on&#160;February&#160;27,&#160;2026;&#160;the&#160;third&#160;was&#160;acquitted.DOJ,&#160;March&#160;2,&#160;2026 [40];&#160;Los&#160;Angeles&#160;Times [41]Portland,&#160;OregonDuring&#160;2025;&#160;exact&#160;dates&#160;not&#160;establishedAccording&#160;to&#160;a&#160;sworn&#160;declaration&#160;by&#160;ICE&#160;Field&#160;Office&#160;Director&#160;Cammilla&#160;Wamsley,&#160;unidentified&#160;individuals&#160;appeared&#160;at&#160;multiple&#160;ICE&#160;officers’&#160;homes,&#160;peered&#160;inside,&#160;and&#160;photographed&#160;or&#160;recorded&#160;officers&#160;entering&#160;and&#160;leaving.&#160;Officers’&#160;residential&#160;addresses&#160;were&#160;also&#160;publicly&#160;distributed&#160;with&#160;threatening&#160;messages.Federal&#160;court&#160;declaration,&#160;October&#160;2025,&#160;page&#160;A74 [42]Portland,&#160;OregonJuly&#160;2025&#160;(reported);&#160;exact&#160;day&#160;unverifiedDHS&#160;alleged&#160;that&#160;an&#160;ICE&#160;officer’s&#160;residence&#160;was&#160;targeted&#160;when&#160;someone&#160;dumped&#160;trash&#160;on&#160;the&#160;officer’s&#160;lawn.&#160;DHS&#160;also&#160;described&#160;doxxing&#160;of&#160;ICE&#160;personnel.&#160;No&#160;prosecution&#160;for&#160;the&#160;reported&#160;residential&#160;incident&#160;was&#160;identified.Oregon&#160;Public&#160;Broadcasting,&#160;October&#160;16,&#160;2025 [43]Wake&#160;County,&#160;North&#160;CarolinaBy&#160;March&#160;31,&#160;2026;&#160;exact&#160;date&#160;unverifiedAnti-ICE&#160;activists&#160;allegedly&#160;identified&#160;an&#160;ICE&#160;officer’s&#160;home&#160;and&#160;mailed&#160;postcards&#160;to&#160;his&#160;neighbors&#160;warning&#160;that&#160;an&#160;ICE&#160;officer&#160;lived&#160;nearby.&#160;No&#160;physical&#160;confrontation&#160;at&#160;the&#160;residence&#160;was&#160;established.Fox&#160;News,&#160;March&#160;31,&#160;2026 [44]Santa&#160;Monica,&#160;CaliforniaFebruary&#160;2025Gregory&#160;John&#160;Curcio&#160;published&#160;an&#160;ICE&#160;attorney’s&#160;residential&#160;address&#160;on&#160;Facebook&#160;and&#160;encouraged&#160;others&#160;to&#160;carry&#160;out&#160;a&#160;swatting&#160;attack.&#160;The&#160;victim&#160;also&#160;reported&#160;earlier&#160;harassment&#160;of&#160;her&#160;mother.&#160;Curcio&#160;pleaded&#160;guilty&#160;to&#160;the&#160;federal&#160;doxxing&#160;charge&#160;in&#160;June&#160;2026.&#160;No&#160;physical&#160;visit&#160;to&#160;the&#160;attorney’s&#160;home&#160;was&#160;established.DOJ,&#160;June&#160;5,&#160;2026&#160;—&#160;Guilty&#160;plea; [45]&#160;DOJ&#160;—&#160;Original&#160;criminal&#160;complaint [46]Newark,&#160;New&#160;Jersey27-May-26During&#160;a&#160;protest&#160;outside&#160;an&#160;ICE&#160;detention&#160;facility,&#160;a&#160;demonstrator&#160;allegedly&#160;threatened&#160;to&#160;kill&#160;an&#160;immigration&#160;officer,&#160;his&#160;wife,&#160;and&#160;his&#160;children.&#160;The&#160;incident&#160;did&#160;not&#160;occur&#160;at&#160;the&#160;officer’s&#160;residence.DOJ&#160;—&#160;Threats&#160;against&#160;ICE&#160;officer&#160;and&#160;family [47]Chaska,&#160;Minnesota&#160;January&#160;12,&#160;2026&#160;(video&#160;circulating)After&#160;Ross&#160;fatally&#160;shot&#160;Renee&#160;Good&#160;on&#160;January&#160;7,&#160;a&#160;woman&#160;identified&#160;in&#160;reporting&#160;as&#160;Sara&#160;Larson&#160;posted&#160;a&#160;video&#160;identifying&#160;his&#160;residential&#160;neighborhood&#160;and&#160;encouraging&#160;opponents&#160;of&#160;Ross&#160;to&#160;drive&#160;around&#160;it&#160;and&#160;make&#160;him&#160;uncomfortable.&#160;She&#160;described&#160;police&#160;vehicles&#160;guarding&#160;the&#160;residence.&#160;This&#160;documents&#160;an&#160;explicit&#160;call&#160;for&#160;residential&#160;harassment,&#160;but&#160;not&#160;a&#160;confirmed&#160;crowd&#160;gathering&#160;outside&#160;his&#160;home.Conservative&#160;Brief&#160;—&#160;Video&#160;and&#160;account;&#160;People,&#160;January&#160;12&#160;—&#160;Neighbors&#160;describe&#160;police&#160;protection&#160;and&#160;Ross’s&#160;belongings&#160;being&#160;moved [48]People, January 12, 2026 [49]St.&#160;Paul,&#160;Minnesota&#160;18-Jan-26Approximately&#160;two&#160;dozen&#160;protesters&#160;entered&#160;Cities&#160;Church&#160;during&#160;a&#160;Sunday&#160;service&#160;to&#160;confront&#160;church&#160;leadership&#160;over&#160;pastor&#160;David&#160;Easterwood’s&#160;role&#160;as&#160;an&#160;ICE&#160;field&#160;office&#160;official.&#160;This&#160;was&#160;an&#160;attempt&#160;to&#160;confront&#160;an&#160;ICE&#160;official&#160;in&#160;his&#160;private&#160;religious&#160;life,&#160;rather&#160;than&#160;at&#160;his&#160;home.Washington&#160;Post,&#160;January&#160;19,&#160;2026 [50]St.&#160;Louis&#160;Park,&#160;Minnetonka,&#160;and&#160;Plymouth,&#160;MinnesotaJanuary&#160;30,&#160;2026&#160;(early&#160;morning)Anti-ICE&#160;demonstrators&#160;organized&#160;late-night&#160;noise&#160;protests&#160;outside&#160;three&#160;hotels&#160;reportedly&#160;housing&#160;immigration&#160;agents.&#160;Protesters&#160;brought&#160;musical&#160;equipment&#160;and&#160;other&#160;noisemakers.&#160;These&#160;were&#160;temporary&#160;accommodations&#160;rather&#160;than&#160;officers’&#160;permanent&#160;residences.Minnesota&#160;Reformer,&#160;January&#160;31,&#160;2026 [51]New&#160;YorkJanuary&#160;2026;&#160;investigated&#160;June&#160;2026Paigelynne&#160;Gonyea&#160;allegedly&#160;published&#160;the&#160;residential&#160;address&#160;of&#160;ICE&#160;officer&#160;Jonathan&#160;Ross&#160;after&#160;the&#160;fatal&#160;shooting&#160;of&#160;Renee&#160;Good.&#160;DHS&#160;said&#160;her&#160;post&#160;constituted&#160;doxxing&#160;and&#160;that&#160;authorities&#160;were&#160;investigating.&#160;Federal&#160;officers&#160;confronted&#160;Gonyea&#160;at&#160;a&#160;polling&#160;location&#160;in&#160;June.&#160;Gonyea&#160;disputed&#160;the&#160;government’s&#160;characterization&#160;of&#160;her&#160;activity.&#160;This&#160;is&#160;a&#160;separate&#160;alleged&#160;act&#160;of&#160;doxxing,&#160;but&#160;it&#160;concerns&#160;the&#160;same&#160;officer&#160;as&#160;the&#160;Chaska&#160;incident&#160;and&#160;does&#160;not&#160;establish&#160;that&#160;protesters&#160;visited&#160;his&#160;home.Associated&#160;Press&#160;reporting,&#160;July&#160;6,&#160;2026,&#160;via&#160;Washington&#160;Post [52] 

[1] https://austinkocher.substack.com/p/over-600000-people-booked-into-ice
[2] https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters
[3] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/01/at-the-new-york-post-how-trumps-ice-enforcement-record-blows-obamas-out-of-the-water-by-a-lot/
[4] https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/2108548302442528939
[5] https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/01/08/radical-rhetoric-sanctuary-politicians-leads-unprecedented-1300-increase-assaults
[6] https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&#38;source=web&#38;rct=j&#38;url=https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/02/03/dhs-law-enforcement-experienced-more-180-vehicle-attacks-president-trump-took&#38;ved=2ahUKEwjU592Tm7CXAxVDIjQIHeNBMDAQ0YISeggIAggBCCEQBw&#38;opi=89978449&#38;cd&#38;psig=AOvVaw1g-PApFnlgCIGb7-npFVcL&#38;ust=1791747886601000
[7] https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/01/08/radical-rhetoric-sanctuary-politicians-leads-unprecedented-1300-increase-assaults
[8] https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/01/08/radical-rhetoric-sanctuary-politicians-leads-unprecedented-1300-increase-assaults
[9] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/05/04/ice-detention-centers-force/
[10] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/05/04/ice-detention-centers-force/
[11] https://tracreports.org/immigration/detentionstats/book_in_agen_program_table.html
[12] https://tracreports.org/immigration/detentionstats/book_in_agen_program_table.html
[13] https://tracreports.org/immigration/detentionstats/book_in_agen_program_table.html
[14] https://github.com/vera-institute/ice-fytd-stats
[15] https://www.southernborder.org/deaths_by_border_patrol
[16] https://www.aclutx.org/app/uploads/2026/03/CBP-Fatal-Encounters-Use-of-Force-07012023.pdf
[17] https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/southern-border-communities-coalition-sbcc/
[18] https://www.southernborder.org/deaths_by_border_patrol
[19] https://www.aclutx.org/app/uploads/2026/03/CBP-Fatal-Encounters-Use-of-Force-07012023.pdf
[20] https://www.texastribune.org/2026/03/06/south-padre-immigration-officer-shooting/
[21] https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/09/19/dhs-sets-record-straight-gross-smears-against-ice-officer-who-was-seriously-injured
[22] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrUMVtrCK_Y
[23] https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/10/us/ice-shooting-minneapolis-renee-good
[24] https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdtx/pr/us-attorney-reitz-statement-shooting-and-death-lorenzo-salgado
[25] https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2026/07/13/fatal-shooting-in-biddeford-maine-involved-ice-state-house-speaker-says/
[26] https://www.pressherald.com/2026/07/13/immigration-agent-kills-man-in-biddeford-spurring-protests/
[27] https://www.justice.gov/usao-vt/pr/woman-charged-discharging-firearm-during-assault-united-states-border-patrol-agent
[28] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/04/at-real-clear-politics-political-violence-isnt-one-sided-so-why-is-the-conversation/
[29] https://www.reddit.com/r/CCW/comments/r60p2n/police_interactions_with_conceal_carry_license/
[30] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/video-alex-pretti-scuffle-federal-agents-minneapolis-11-days-before-his-death/
[31] https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/06/texas-immigration-border-patrol-killed-migrant-starr-county-isaias-sanchez-barbosa/
[32] https://laist.com/news/criminal-justice/ice-new-year-eve-shooting-keith-porter-brian-palacios
[33] https://laist.com/news/criminal-justice/ice-new-year-eve-shooting-keith-porter-brian-palacios
[34] https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/crime/2026/03/04/texas-i-10-shooting-pursuit-ran-border-patrol-sierra-blanca-checkpoint/88989279007/
[35] https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/crime/2026/03/04/texas-i-10-shooting-pursuit-ran-border-patrol-sierra-blanca-checkpoint/88989279007/
[36] https://www.newsbreak.com/newschannel-5-wtvf-563677/4664884354534-hsi-agent-involved-in-fatal-shooting-in-memphis-tbi-investigating
[37] https://www.cbsnews.com/projects/2026/ice-shooting-tracker/
[38] https://lbpost.com/news/crime/hit-and-run-bicyclist-long-beach-shot-border-patrol-blythe/
[39] https://lbpost.com/news/crime/hit-and-run-bicyclist-long-beach-shot-border-patrol-blythe/
[40] https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/riverside-and-colorado-women-found-guilty-stalking-ice-officer-home-work-and
[41] https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-02-27/two-los-angeles-protesters-convicted-of-stalking-ice-agent
[42] https://web.pdx.edu/~pcooper/ORvTrumpUSStayMotion9th10052025.pdf
[43] https://www.opb.org/article/2025/10/16/ice-doxing-cases-portland/
[44] https://www.foxnews.com/politics/photos-anti-ice-agitators-doxx-agents-sending-warning-postcards-neighbors.amp
[45] https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/santa-monica-man-pleads-guilty-doxing-ice-lawyer
[46] https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/santa-monica-man-arrested-federal-criminal-complaint-alleging-he-doxxed-and-harassed
[47] https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/brooklyn-man-charged-threatening-assault-and-murder-ice-officer-and-his-family
[48] https://conservativebrief.com/woman-minn-98148/
[49] https://people.com/ice-agent-jonathan-ross-told-neighbor-he-was-botanist-exclusive-11883673
[50] https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2026/01/19/minnesota-church-anti-ice-protest/
[51] https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/01/31/gnight-ice-but-first-some-rage-against-the-machine/
[52] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/06/ice-lawsuit-free-speech-first-amendment-immigration/3b66b980-7953-11f1-b194-f872dd4ec5aa_story.html]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>At The Federalist: New Trump Admin Stats Prove Good Guys With Guns Save Lives</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/at-the-federalist-new-trump-admin-stats-prove-good-guys-with-guns-save-lives/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2026 16:21:14 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67433</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[. The federal government consistently downplays evidence that armed, law-abiding citizens can stop public mass-casualty attacks. . Those who manipulate crime data can shape the political debate. The Trump administration has reversed some serious data manipulation that occurred during the Biden administration when it comes to crime. . At the request of gun control advocates, [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[.
The federal government consistently downplays evidence that armed, law-abiding citizens can stop public mass-casualty attacks. . Those who manipulate crime data can shape the political debate. The Trump administration has reversed some serious data manipulation that occurred during the Biden administration when it comes to crime. . At the request of gun control advocates, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) removed data from its website. The Trump administration has now restored the data, but it went a step further, correcting an important error in the original post. . That correction is a major accomplishment. But there are problems with data at the FBI and Department of Justice that still need to be corrected. . Getting the CDC Back in Line A 2013&#160;National Academies of Sciences (NAS) report [1], co-sponsored by the CDC, discussed research producing estimates of defensive gun uses ranging from about 500,000 annually at the lower end of national surveys to over three million. Yet the CDC posted a substantially different range of&#160;60,000 to 2.5 million defensive gun uses per year [2]. . During the Biden administration, the White House and Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois connected gun control advocates with CDC officials. The advocates then met privately with CDC officials and exchanged numerous emails as they pressed the agency to remove its discussion of defensive gun use. Documents obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request revealed that the advocates objected in part because “gun rights folks” cited defensive-gun-use estimates to “stop [gun-control] legislation [3].” . By May 2022, the CDC removed the defensive-gun-use material from its website. It remained down until the Trump administration restored the original post in July 2026. Gun control organizations sharply criticized the decision. Michael Bloomberg-funded outlet The Trace, for example, ran the headline, “Inflated Claim About Guns and Self-Defense Returns to CDC Website [4].” . But the CDC’s range of 60,000 to 2.5 million defensive gun uses did not accurately describe what the 2013 NAS report said about national survey estimates. The NAS report cautioned that the National Crime Victimization Survey estimate was “difficult to interpret because respondents were not asked specifically about defensive gun use.” It then reported that estimates based on national surveys ranged from about 500,000 to more than 3 million defensive gun uses annually. Moreover, the 500,000 estimate limited defensive gun uses to just cases involving handguns. . The Trump administration has now&#160;corrected the lower end of the range [5]&#160;from 60,000 to 500,000 defensive gun uses per year, bringing the CDC’s description into line with the lower end of the national survey estimates discussed by the NAS. . For years, gun control&#160;activists [6]&#160;have tried to&#160;“debunk” [7]&#160;what they call the “good guy with a gun myth” as they push for stricter limits on one of our nation’s most cherished liberties. The federal government and much of the legacy media have reinforced that narrative by downplaying evidence that armed, law-abiding citizens can stop public mass-casualty attacks. . Even dramatic defensive gun uses rarely receive national attention. One exception came in August, when Jordan Salinas fired at a gunman who was shooting at vehicles outside an In-N-Out restaurant in Twin Falls, Idaho. As one&#160;news report [8]&#160;noted, Twin Falls County Sheriff Jack Johnson said the death toll would have been higher without the actions of Salinas and an off-duty police officer. . Since the beginning of 2025 alone, we have identified&#160;15 defensive gun uses [9]&#160;in which police made similar statements about armed civilians saving lives. . FBI Doubles Down on Data Errors The FBI has also had its own data problems. The FBI&#160;defines [10]&#160;an active shooter as someone actively killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area. The category can include an incident in which a gunman shoots at a single person and misses, as well as a mass public shooting. But it excludes shootings tied to other crimes, such as robberies or fights over drug turf. . I have seen politicized data firsthand. Until January 2021, I served at the U.S. Department of Justice as senior adviser for research and statistics in the Office of Justice Programs, where part of my job involved evaluating&#160;the FBI’s active shooter reports [11]. During my time at DOJ, I found that the FBI had missed or misidentified many&#160;cases [12]&#160;in which armed civilians stopped attacks. The FBI still reports that armed citizens stopped only 16 of the 408 active shooter incidents it identified from 2014 through 2025. . The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), which I run, has identified many additional cases and maintains an&#160;updated list [13]. Our&#160;numbers [14]&#160;tell a very different story. From 2014 through 2025, we identified 615 active shooter incidents and found that armed citizens&#160;stopped [15]&#160;225 of them. We also excluded 35 cases in which a law-abiding citizen with a gun stopped an attacker before he could fire a shot. . Overall, the CPRC estimates that armed, law-abiding citizens stopped 36.6 percent of active-shooter attacks from 2014 through 2025 and 42.5 percent over the most recent five years. That is roughly 10 times the FBI’s estimate of about 4 percent. . The gap grows even larger when we look only at places where law-abiding citizens can legally carry firearms. We should not expect armed civilians to stop many attacks in gun-free zones, where the law prevents them from carrying. In places where citizens could legally carry firearms, we estimate that armed civilians stopped 52.9 percent of active-shooter attacks over the past 12 years. . The FBI has continually ignored requests from news outlets such as the&#160;Washington Post [16]&#160;and&#160;Washington Times [17]&#160;to explain these missing cases. When John Stossel&#160;asked [18]&#160;the FBI about our claim that they had omitted many cases, the Bureau responded: “[Our data is] not intended to explore all active shooting incidents but rather to provide a baseline understanding . . .” . Texas State University researchers who helped compile the FBI data questioned two of the hundreds of cases we identified. In response, we pointed to&#160;17 cases [19]&#160;that the FBI did include despite circumstances essentially identical to the two cases they said should be excluded. The only difference was that the ones they excluded had civilians legally carrying firearms stopping the attacks. . The FBI has omitted so many defensive gun uses that it becomes difficult to dismiss the pattern as accidental, especially because the agency has not corrected mistakes that I previously brought to its attention. And because&#160;we list each case and link to the underlying sources [20], no one has to take our word for it. John R. Lott, Jr., “New Trump Admin Stats Prove Good Guys With Guns Save Lives,” The Federalist, October 9, 2026. [21]


[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20220713172632/https:/nap.nationalacademies.org/login.php?record_id=18319&#38;page=&#38;cc=1
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/10/the-cdc-corrects-its-post-on-defensive-gun-uses/
[3] https://thereload.com/app/uploads/2022/12/CDC-DGU-Emails-Reload-Redactions.pdf
[4] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Trump-CDC-Props-Up-Inflated-%E2%80%98Good-Guy-With-a-Gun-Data.pdf
[5] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/10/the-cdc-corrects-its-post-on-defensive-gun-uses/
[6] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/debunking-the-guns-make-us-safer-myth/
[7] https://www.everytown.org/debunking-gun-myths-at-the-dinner-table/
[8] https://nypost.com/2026/08/03/us-news/hero-civilian-who-fired-back-at-in-n-out-shooter-trained-in-self-defense-after-witnessing-another-mass-shooting/
[9] https://crimeresearch.org/2023/06/uber-driver-in-chicago-stops-mass-public-shooting/
[10] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/U-_ActiveShooter13B_FBI.pdf
[11] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/09/massive-errors-in-fbis-active-shooting-reports-from-2014-2025-regarding-cases-where-civilians-stop-attacks-instead-of-3-9-the-correct-number-is-at-least-36-6-excluding-gun-free-zones-it-a/
[12] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3857331
[13] https://crimeresearch.org/2024/07/updated-cases-where-armed-citizens-have-stopped-active-shooter-incidents/?_thumbnail_id=16421
[14] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/09/massive-errors-in-fbis-active-shooting-reports-from-2014-2025-regarding-cases-where-civilians-stop-attacks-instead-of-3-9-the-correct-number-is-at-least-36-6-excluding-gun-free-zones-it-a/
[15] https://crimeresearch.org/2024/07/updated-cases-where-armed-citizens-have-stopped-active-shooter-incidents/?_thumbnail_id=16421
[16] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/31/whats-more-common-good-guy-without-gun-or-with-one/
[17] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/sep/10/fbi-undercounts-cases-good-guy-gun-stops-attacks/
[18] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0r_xc09q9vo&#38;t=324s
[19] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/09/massive-errors-in-fbis-active-shooting-reports-from-2014-2025-regarding-cases-where-civilians-stop-attacks-instead-of-3-9-the-correct-number-is-at-least-36-6-excluding-gun-free-zones-it-a/
[20] https://crimeresearch.org/2024/07/updated-cases-where-armed-citizens-have-stopped-active-shooter-incidents/
[21] https://thefederalist.com/2026/10/09/new-trump-admin-stats-prove-good-guys-with-guns-save-lives/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Explaining the remarkable drop in violent crime during the Trump Administration</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/explaining-the-remarkable-drop-in-violent-crime-during-the-trump-administration/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2026 06:27:52 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67431</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on Stacy on the Right, a nationwide radio show, to discuss recent Supreme Court decisions involving mail-in ballot safeguards and why half of U.S. states refuse to share voter-roll data. See also Dr. Lott&#8217;s new op-ed at Real Clear Politics&#8230;]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on Stacy on the Right, a nationwide radio show, to discuss recent Supreme Court decisions involving mail-in ballot safeguards and why half of U.S. states refuse to share voter-roll data. See also Dr. Lott's new op-ed at Real Clear Politics...
]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>New Research: The worst 2% of U.S. counties produce an even larger share of firearm murders than of murders overall. Those counties account for 53% of all murders but 57% of firearm murders. Most in heavily Democrat controlled areas. U.S. murders are concentrated far more heavily than Canada’s and Australia’s.</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/new-research-the-worst-2-of-u-s-counties-produce-an-even-larger-share-of-firearm-murders-than-of-murders-overall-those-counties-account-for-53-of-all-murders-but-57-of-firearm-murders-most-in-heav/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Tue, 06 Oct 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67217</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[We have previously examined how heavily murders concentrate in the United States, but this is our first analysis of firearm homicide concentration. The first two graphs show that the worst 2% to 5% of counties account for a share of firearm murders about four percentage points larger than their share of all murders. Firearm murders [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[  We have previously examined how heavily murders concentrate in the United States, but this is our first analysis of firearm homicide concentration. The first two graphs show that the worst 2% to 5% of counties account for a share of firearm murders about four percentage points larger than their share of all murders. Firearm murders are more concentrated than all murders. Another way to see this concentration: 1,981 counties with 17% of the population recorded no firearm murders, and another 453 with 8.92% of the population recorded just one. Together, 78% of counties recorded zero or one firearm murder. So just 4.9% of the firearm murders occurred where 25.97% of the people live. By comparison, 1,729 counties recorded no murders of any kind, and another 503 recorded just one—a total of 71% of counties. Counties with zero or one murder contained 19.7% of the population—12.2% in counties with no murders and 7.51% in counties with one—but accounted for only 3.9% of all murders.  There was a total of 9,288 firearm murders and 12,768 murders in 2025. The data is available here [1] (the Excel files we created using that data are provided here for the firearms murder data [2] and here for the overall murder data [3]). This report marks our first analysis of firearm murder concentration. The share of counties recording zero or one murder rose slightly, from&#160;69% in our 2024 report [4]&#160;to 71% in 2025. In 2025, the counties with either zero or one firearm murder or murder accounted for just 4.9% of firearm murders and 3.9% of all murders. Meanwhile, the counties with the most murders accounted for slightly smaller shares of the national total. The worst 1% of counties accounted for 40% of murders in 2025, down from 41% in 2024, with them having 20% of the U.S. population in both years. The worst 2% accounted for 53%, down from 54% (and they have 30% of the population). As the murder rate plunged to record lows in 2025 [5], murders fell proportionately faster in the counties that had the most murders. In our past work, we have shown how even within these counties with the most murders, the murders are even extremely concentrated in tiny areas within those counties (here [6] and here [7]). As we show at the end, Biden carried all but one of these counties in 2020. Trump carried the lone exception by just 1.1 percentage points. Even in the more Republican 2024 election, Harris carried 25 of these 31 counties. Trump carried the other six by an average of only four percentage points. More importantly, murders in these counties overwhelmingly occur in their major cities, where city officials make key policing decisions. Excluding the places where the cities and the counties cover identical areas, for the 1% of the counties where the most murders occur, on average 74% of the murders in those counties occur within their major city (see Table 7 at the end). Where the major city does not encompass the entire county, the city consistently votes more Democratic than the county as a whole. In 2024, Harris carried the major city in all six of the six counties that Trump won (Table 8). Twenty-six of the 31 cities elected Democrats as mayors and either had a strong Democrat majority or Democrat-leaning control of the city councils (Table 9). Miami and San Bernardino have Democratic mayors and officially nonpartisan councils with no documented party majority, so it is possible that total is 28 rather than 26 (see the list at the end). There is only one clear case where there is a Republican mayor and Republican city council — Oklahoma City. Fort Worth also has a Republican mayor, but its elections are nonpartisan and I could not document a formal partisan council majority. County elected prosecutors and judges aren’t answering to just those who live in the cities, but except for 2024, these counties have voted overwhelmingly Democratic in recent presidential elections, and even the ones that Republicans won in 2024 were usually very narrow victories.   The next two figures show the cumulative percentages of murders for counties.   Finally, the last graphs track how the distribution of murders and population has changed since we began analyzing total murders in 2010. Murder concentration peaked in 2020, then gradually declined to roughly its 2016 level. The 1% and 2% of counties with the most murders have seen little change in their share of the U.S. population. Still, their slight population share decline may explain part of the drop in their share of murders between 2020 and 2024.   Using U.S.’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) Since we are also going to compare the U.S. data to Canada’s, we also break it down the U.S.’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA). Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and U.S.’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) offer broadly comparable metropolitan concepts, not U.S. counties. Both identify metropolitan areas around an urban core of at least 50,000 people and incorporate surrounding areas based partly on commuting integration. Canadian CMAs, however, must also have at least 100,000 residents overall and are built from municipalities, while U.S. MSAs are built from counties. The MSA data is available at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States, 2025, Table 6, “Crime in the United States by Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2025.” [8] And at the bottom of this post, the data for all 349 MSAs and the additional non-MSA is provided (Table 6). Figure 9 shows a less dramatic concentration of murders. When we rank MSAs by total murders, those containing the first 30% of the MSA population account for a share of murders 28.4 percentage points higher than their population share. For MSAs containing the next 30% of the population, the murder share exceeds the population share by only 5.4 percentage points. For the remaining 198 MSAs, which only represents about 12% of the U.S. population, their share of the population is almost twice their share of murders. The areas outside the MSAs include areas centered on urban populations of fewer than 50,000 residents, including small cities, towns, and rural areas, though some of these non-MSA areas don’t contain urban areas. This group is the most dramatic yet, with their share of the population more than three times their share of murders. The pattern shows that for the MSAs with the most murders the share of murders greatly exceeds their share of the population, then in the middle area the share of murders roughly equals the share of the population, and then counties with few murders and in the areas outside the MSAs the share of murders is much lower than their share of the population. In switching from an area where the share of murders exceeds their share of the population to the reverse, there is an area in between where there isn’t much of a difference. The discrepancy between the 12,768 total in the county-level analysis and the 14,085 total in the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) analysis stems from differences in reporting parameters and the FBI’s estimation methodologies for missing data. Because participation in the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program is voluntary, the FBI estimates missing data. For agencies in counties [9] reporting three to 11 months of offense data, the FBI estimates the missing months using the data that the agency provided. For agencies reporting fewer than three months, the FBI estimates missing data using crime figures from similar areas within the state, taking into account population, type of jurisdiction, and geographic location. For the MSA data [10], the FBI includes an MSA in Table 6 only if its principal city or cities provide 12 complete months of data and at least 75% of the agencies within the MSA report data. Yet, the pattern that murders in the US are highly concentrated holds with both the county and MSA data. Screenshot Canada’s Data Comparing the U.S.’s MSAs to Canada’s CMAs shows the U.S. homicides are clearly much more concentrated than those in Canada. While the MSAs with the most homicides consistently have a greater share of homicides than their share of the population, the opposite pattern is clearly true for Canada. For the three CMAs with the most homicides, they make up 35.4% of Canada’s population, but only 24.3% of its homicides, so overall their share of the homicides is only 69% of their share of the population (Table 1). The areas outside the CMAs provide a very sharp contrast to the areas outside the MSAs. It is in these areas outside the CMAs that you have 37.9% of the homicides but only 25.2% of the population, so their share of homicides is 51% more than their share of the population. To phrase it differently, the report finds: 
All 41 CMAs:&#160;74.8% of population, 62.1% of homicides Outside CMAs:&#160;25.2% of population, 37.9% of homicides
 That means the homicide share inside the CMAs is 17% less than its share of the population while the homicide share outside CMAs is indeed&#160;51% greater than its population share. The difference in rates is striking: the homicide rate outside Canada’s CMAs is approximately 82% higher than inside CMAs. The pattern is the reverse of what we see for U.S. MSAs. Among the Canadian CMAs with the most homicides, their share of homicides is substantially below their share of the population. Moving toward the middle, the two shares become more similar. Outside the CMAs, the relationship reverses: these areas contain only 25.1% of Canada’s population but account for 37.9% of its homicides. This is the exact opposite of the U.S. pattern, where the MSAs with the most murders account for disproportionately more murders, while areas outside MSAs account for disproportionately fewer. Table 1: Distribution of Homicides and Population by Canada’s Census Metropolitan AreasCMA rank by homicide count2025 homicidesShare of Canada’s homicidesShare of Canada’s populationTop 3 (Toronto, Montréal, Vancouver)16324.30%35.40%Top 6 (Additional areas: Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa–Gatineau)24035.70%45.80%Top 10 (Additional areas: Calgary, Halifax, Regina, Oshawa)28542.40%53.50%11th–20th7711.50%9.20%21st–30th406.00%8.30%31st–40th152.20%3.60%41st00.00%0.30%All 41 CMAs41762.10%74.8%Outside CMAs25537.90%25.2%Canada total672100%100%Source: my calculations from Statistics Canada’s homicide table [11] and published crime counts and rates used to reconstruct population denominators. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510007101 Table 2: Distribution of Homicides by Canada’s Six Worst Census Metropolitan Areas by Total Homicides2025 CMA2025 homicidesShare of Canada’s homicidesShare of Canada’s populationToronto649.50%16.90%Montréal527.70%11.20%Vancouver477.00%7.40%Edmonton324.80%4.10%Winnipeg233.40%2.20%Ottawa–Gatineau223.30%4.00%24035.70%45.80%Source: my calculations from Statistics Canada’s homicide table [11] and published crime counts and rates used to reconstruct population denominators. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510007101 While it isn’t relevant for the issue of measuring how concentrated homicides are in Canada, there is one partial explanation for Canada’s opposite pattern compared to the U.S. Aboriginal people accounted for&#160;203 of Canada’s 672 homicide victims, or 30.2% [13], even though Aboriginal people are only about&#160;5% of Canada’s population [14]. Statistics Canada puts the 2025 Aboriginal homicide rate at&#160;9.59 per 100,000, roughly eight times the non-Indigenous rate of&#160;1.13. This matters because Aboriginal Canadians are much less concentrated in large metropolitan areas than the Canadian population generally. For example, Statistics Canada reported that in 2020&#160;59% of Aboriginal people lived outside CMAs [15], and correspondingly&#160;59% of Aboriginal homicide victims were killed outside CMAs [16]. By contrast, there were about 7.7 million [17] American Indian or Alaska Native population alone or in combination with other race groups in 2024, about 2.26% of the 340.1 million Americans at that time. In 2023, American Indian or Alaska Native homicide victimizations numbered 250 (1.3% of the estimated 19,800 total), with a rate of 4.2 per 100,000 [18]. The rate for whites was 3.2 per 100,000 [19]. By applying the&#160;2020 geographic distribution of aboriginal homicide victims&#160;to the&#160;203 aboriginal homicide victims in 2025 we can get a guess at how the homicide rates inside and outside of the CMAs would change if homicides against aboriginals was removed from the totals. In&#160;2020, there were 201 aboriginal homicide victims, of whom: 118 (59%) occurred outside a CMA and 83 (41%) occurred in a CMA [20]. Applying those 2020 percentages to the 203 aboriginal homicides victims in 2025 implies that there were 83 aboriginal homicides inside CMAs (203 x 41%) and 120 outside CMAs (203 x 59%).  This adjustment reduces the gap between the outside CMAs share of homicides from 37.9% to 28.8% and their share of population from 25.2% to 23.7% — so the gap declines from 12.7 percentage points to 5.1 percentage points (Table 3). Similarly, the gap between the 41 CMAs share of homicides increases from 62.1% to 71.22% while their share of the population increases from 74.8% to 76.33% — so that gap also gets smaller, but it still shows that the CMAs have a smaller share of homicides than their share of the population. Nor does it appear the gap can be explained by aboriginals killing non-aboriginals. Statistics Canada’s [21] linked homicide and court data show that homicide is heavily concentrated within aboriginal-status groups. Among aboriginal women and girls in the linked cases, 83% of accused persons were aboriginal, compared with only 5% of accused persons associated with non-aboriginal female homicide victims. Statistics Canada does not publish the equivalent aboriginal/non-aboriginal victim-by-accused breakdown for male victims in this table. Table 3: Showing How the Relative Shares of Homicides and Population Change When the Aboriginal Population is Removed from the SampleGeographyAll 2025 homicidesUsing 2025 homicide dataIllustrative Indigenous victims removed using 2020 geographic distribution of aboriginal homicide victimsRemaining homicides after aboriginal homicide victims removedShare of remaining homicidesShare of remaining population after aboriginal population removed41 CMAs41762.05%8333471.22%76.33%Outside CMAs25537.95%12013528.78%23.67% While the MSAs and CMAs provide the most similar communities, we can also compare U.S. counties with CMAs, though this comparison is only suggestive. For example, the stark difference in concentration can be seen here: while 40% of U.S. murders occur where 20% of the people live in the 1% of the counties with the most murders, Toronto with the most homicides accounted for 16.9% of the population and 9.5% of the homicides. If you add Toronto and Montréal together, you get 17.3% of the murders with 28.1% of the population. The worst three CMAs have 35.4% of the population and 24.3% of Canada’s homicides. At the other end of the spectrum, while 3.9% of murders in the U.S. occurred in counties with zero or one murder were where 19.7% of the population lives, in Canada outside the CMAs 25.1% of the people live there but it has 37.9% of the homicides. Australia’s Data Australia has quite good data for making a comparison similar to the Canadian CMA analysis, and although the Australian geography is somewhat different, it still allows a comparison in steps from very urban to very remote areas. The&#160;Australian Institute of Criminology’s National Homicide Monitoring Program (NHMP) [22]&#160;publishes homicide incidents by the Australian Bureau of Statistics’&#160;Remoteness Areas—Major Cities, Inner Regional, Outer Regional, Remote, and Very Remote. The latest report,&#160;Homicide in Australia 2024–25 [23], records&#160;264 homicide incidents&#160;and 279 victims.  Australia shows a pattern strikingly similar to Canada’s. Major Cities contain a much larger share of Australia’s population than of its homicides, while the relationship progressively reverses as areas become more remote. The ratio of an area’s homicide share to its population share rises from 0.85 in Major Cities to 1.02 in Inner Regional areas, 1.36 in Outer Regional areas, 3.38 in Remote areas, and 4.12 in Very Remote areas (Table 4). Thus, as in Canada, homicides become increasingly disproportionate to population as we move away from the largest urban areas. Table 4: Distribution of Homicides and Population by Australia’s Remoteness AreasAustralian Remoteness Area, 2024–25Homicide incidents [24]Share of homicide incidents2025 population estimates in millions [25]Share of populationRatio of share of homicides and population163 Major Cities16361.70%20.14306772.9%0.84647 Inner Regional4717.80%4.80217617.4%1.02428 Outer Regional2810.60%2.1569457.8%1.35710 Remote103.80%0.3101271.1%3.3848 Very Remote83.00%0.2013390.7%4.115Not stated/unknown — Homicides could not be assigned to one of the five Remoteness Area categories83.00%—Total264100%27.613654100.0% Again, while it isn’t central to the question of how concentrated homicides are in Australia, as was true for Canada, aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (hereafter, aboriginals) make up a disproportionate share of homicide offenders — about 3.8% of Australia’s population [26] versus 24.7% of identified homicide offenders in 2024–25 [27] (67 of 271). We have data on the share of each area’s population that are aboriginals (Table 5), but we are still looking for the share of homicide victims or murderers in the different areas who are aboriginals. The very limited historical evidence suggests that Indigenous homicide victimization is particularly important in Australia’s most remote areas. In 2005-2006 (p. 10) [28], the AIC reported that 77% of homicide victims in Remote and Very Remote Australia were Indigenous (24 victims). However, the report did not provide comparable Indigenous percentages separately for Major Cities, Inner Regional, Outer Regional, Remote and Very Remote areas.  Here is the data for all the U.S. MSAs and the non-MSA areas. Table 6: U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas: Murders, Percent of Murders, and Percent of PopulationMetropolitan Statistical AreaMurder and nonnegligent manslaughterPercent of PopulationPercent of Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter (Denominator: CIUS 2025 Total 14,085)Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA M. S. A.5333.80%3.80%Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX M. S. A.4782.30%3.40%Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN M. S. A.4702.80%3.30%New York–Newark–Jersey City M.S.A.**4285.88%3.04%Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA M. S. A.3781.90%2.70%Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX M. S. A.3742.50%2.70%Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD M. S. A.3191.90%2.30%Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI M. S. A.2581.30%1.80%Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV M. S. A.2561.90%1.80%St. Louis, MO-IL M. S. A.2360.80%1.70%Memphis, TN-MS-AR M. S. A.2300.40%1.60%Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ M. S. A.2081.50%1.50%Kansas City, MO-KS M. S. A.1950.70%1.40%Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD M. S. A.1920.80%1.40%Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA M. S. A.1671.40%1.20%Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC M. S. A.1630.90%1.20%Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI M. S. A.1590.50%1.10%Cleveland, OH M. S. A.1410.60%1.00%San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA M. S. A.1371.40%1.00%San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX M. S. A.1350.80%1.00%Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO M. S. A.1250.90%0.90%Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC M. S. A.1250.50%0.90%Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV M. S. A.1200.70%0.90%Birmingham, AL M. S. A.1170.30%0.80%Columbus, OH M. S. A.1150.70%0.80%Pittsburgh, PA M. S. A.1150.70%0.80%Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN M. S. A.1140.60%0.80%Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA M. S. A.1111.20%0.80%Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI M. S. A.1071.10%0.80%Richmond, VA M. S. A.990.40%0.70%Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN M. S. A.960.70%0.70%Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX M. S. A.950.80%0.70%Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN M. S. A.950.60%0.70%Jacksonville, FL M. S. A.1910.50%0.60%Albuquerque, NM M. S. A.880.30%0.60%Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA M. S. A.880.70%0.60%Oklahoma City, OK M. S. A.870.40%0.60%Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR M. S. A.810.20%0.60%Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA M. S. A.740.70%0.50%Montgomery, AL M. S. A.680.10%0.50%Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH M. S. A.661.50%0.50%Bakersfield-Delano, CA M. S. A.610.30%0.40%Raleigh-Cary, NC M. S. A.580.50%0.40%San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA M. S. A.561.00%0.40%Columbia, SC M. S. A.550.30%0.40%Jackson, MS M. S. A.540.20%0.40%Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC M. S. A.500.20%0.40%Stockton-Lodi, CA M. S. A.500.20%0.40%Winston-Salem, NC M. S. A.500.20%0.40%Durham-Chapel Hill, NC M. S. A.490.20%0.30%Fresno, CA M. S. A.490.30%0.30%Mobile, AL M. S. A.490.10%0.30%Tulsa, OK M. S. A.470.30%0.30%Tucson, AZ M. S. A.460.30%0.30%Charleston-North Charleston, SC M. S. A.430.30%0.30%Fayetteville, NC M. S. A.430.10%0.30%Wichita, KS M. S. A.430.20%0.30%Greenville-Anderson-Greer, SC M. S. A.420.30%0.30%Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN M. S. A.420.40%0.30%Shreveport-Bossier City, LA M. S. A.420.10%0.30%Florence, SC M. S. A.400.10%0.30%Colorado Springs, CO M. S. A.380.20%0.30%Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY M. S. A.370.30%0.30%Flint, MI M. S. A.370.10%0.30%Akron, OH M. S. A.360.20%0.30%El Paso, TX M. S. A.360.30%0.30%Fort Wayne, IN M. S. A.360.10%0.30%Rochester, NY M. S. A.360.30%0.30%Salt Lake City-Murray, UT M. S. A.360.40%0.30%San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA M. S. A.360.60%0.30%Omaha, NE-IA M. S. A.340.30%0.20%Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH M. S. A.330.20%0.20%Savannah, GA M. S. A.330.10%0.20%Huntsville, AL M. S. A.310.20%0.20%Knoxville, TN M. S. A.310.30%0.20%Providence-Warwick, RI-MA M. S. A.290.50%0.20%Gulfport-Biloxi, MS M. S. A.280.10%0.20%Vallejo, CA M. S. A.280.10%0.20%Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA M. S. A.270.20%0.20%Albany, GA M. S. A.250.00%0.20%Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY M. S. A.250.30%0.20%New Haven, CT M. S. A.250.20%0.20%Tallahassee, FL M. S. A.1250.10%0.20%Anchorage, AK M. S. A.240.10%0.20%Monroe, LA M. S. A.240.10%0.20%Wilmington, NC M. S. A.240.10%0.20%Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX M. S. A.230.10%0.20%Lake Charles, LA M. S. A.230.10%0.20%Reno, NV M. S. A.230.20%0.20%Roanoke, VA M. S. A.230.10%0.20%Saginaw, MI M. S. A.230.10%0.20%Chattanooga, TN-GA M. S. A.220.20%0.20%Corpus Christi, TX M. S. A.220.10%0.20%Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA M. S. A.220.20%0.20%Clarksville, TN-KY M. S. A.210.10%0.10%Lafayette, LA M. S. A.210.10%0.10%Tuscaloosa, AL M. S. A.210.10%0.10%Auburn-Opelika, AL M. S. A.200.10%0.10%Columbus, GA-AL M. S. A.200.10%0.10%Hammond, LA M. S. A.200.00%0.10%Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA M. S. A.200.10%0.10%McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX M. S. A.200.30%0.10%Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC M. S. A.200.10%0.10%Toledo, OH M. S. A.200.20%0.10%Visalia, CA M. S. A.200.10%0.10%Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL M. S. A.1190.30%0.10%Macon-Bibb County, GA M. S. A.190.10%0.10%Rocky Mount, NC M. S. A.190.00%0.10%Springfield, MA M. S. A.190.10%0.10%Springfield, MO M. S. A.190.10%0.10%Trenton-Princeton, NJ M. S. A.190.10%0.10%Greenville, NC M. S. A.180.10%0.10%Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Port Royal, SC M. S. A.180.10%0.10%Lexington-Fayette, KY M. S. A.180.20%0.10%Reading, PA M. S. A.180.10%0.10%York-Hanover, PA M. S. A.180.10%0.10%Alexandria, LA M. S. A.170.00%0.10%Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT M. S. A.170.30%0.10%Muskegon-Norton Shores, MI M. S. A.170.10%0.10%Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA M. S. A.170.10%0.10%Springfield, IL M. S. A.170.10%0.10%Sumter, SC M. S. A.170.00%0.10%Yuma, AZ M. S. A.170.10%0.10%Canton-Massillon, OH M. S. A.160.10%0.10%Jackson, TN M. S. A.160.10%0.10%Las Cruces, NM M. S. A.160.10%0.10%Modesto, CA M. S. A.160.20%0.10%Salinas, CA M. S. A.160.10%0.10%Champaign-Urbana, IL M. S. A.150.10%0.10%Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR M. S. A.150.20%0.10%Peoria, IL M. S. A.150.10%0.10%Rockford, IL M. S. A.150.10%0.10%Greeley, CO M. S. A.140.10%0.10%Jackson, MI M. S. A.140.00%0.10%Kalamazoo-Portage, MI M. S. A.140.10%0.10%Madison, WI M. S. A.140.20%0.10%Merced, CA M. S. A.140.10%0.10%Ogden, UT M. S. A.140.20%0.10%Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA M. S. A.140.20%0.10%Port St. Lucie, FL M. S. A.1140.20%0.10%Syracuse, NY M. S. A.140.20%0.10%Yakima, WA M. S. A.140.10%0.10%Asheville, NC M. S. A.130.10%0.10%Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL M. S. A.130.10%0.10%Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL M. S. A.130.10%0.10%Hanford-Corcoran, CA M. S. A.130.00%0.10%Longview, TX M. S. A.130.10%0.10%Lubbock, TX M. S. A.130.10%0.10%Ocala, FL M. S. A.1130.10%0.10%Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA M. S. A.130.20%0.10%Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ M. S. A.120.10%0.10%Waterbury-Shelton, CT M. S. A.120.10%0.10%Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ M. S. A.110.30%0.10%Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT M. S. A.110.28%0.10%Decatur, IL M. S. A.110.03%0.10%Goldsboro, NC M. S. A.110.04%0.10%Napa, CA M. S. A.110.04%0.10%Waco, TX M. S. A.110.09%0.10%Charleston, WV M. S. A.100.06%0.10%Chico, CA M. S. A.100.06%0.10%Eugene-Springfield, OR M. S. A.100.11%0.10%Jacksonville, NC M. S. A.100.06%0.10%Sioux Falls, SD-MN M. S. A.100.09%0.10%Ann Arbor, MI M. S. A.90.11%0.10%Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ M. S. A.90.11%0.10%Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY M. S. A.90.21%0.10%Lansing-East Lansing, MI M. S. A.90.14%0.10%Laredo, TX M. S. A.90.08%0.10%Lynchburg, VA M. S. A.90.08%0.10%Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA M. S. A.90.13%0.10%Tyler, TX M. S. A.90.07%0.10%Victoria, TX M. S. A.90.03%0.10%Abilene, TX M. S. A.80.05%0.10%Boise City, ID M. S. A.80.25%0.10%Dothan, AL M. S. A.80.05%0.10%Duluth, MN-WI M. S. A.80.08%0.10%Evansville, IN M. S. A.80.08%0.10%Farmington, NM M. S. A.80.04%0.10%Fort Collins-Loveland, CO M. S. A.80.11%0.10%Fort Smith, AR-OK M. S. A.80.07%0.10%Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA M. S. A.80.06%0.10%Janesville-Beloit, WI M. S. A.80.05%0.10%Monroe, MI M. S. A.80.05%0.10%Odessa, TX M. S. A.80.05%0.10%Rapid City, SD M. S. A.80.05%0.10%Salem, OR M. S. A.80.13%0.10%Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ M. S. A.80.04%0.10%Slidell-Mandeville-Covington, LA M. S. A.80.08%0.10%St. George, UT M. S. A.80.06%0.10%Valdosta, GA M. S. A.80.05%0.10%Altoona, PA M. S. A.70.04%0.00%Binghamton, NY M. S. A.70.07%0.00%Brownsville-Harlingen, TX M. S. A.70.13%0.00%Charlottesville, VA M. S. A.70.07%0.00%Cheyenne, WY M. S. A.70.03%0.00%Coeur d’Alene, ID M. S. A.70.06%0.00%Columbia, MO M. S. A.70.07%0.00%Dalton, GA M. S. A.70.04%0.00%Decatur, AL M. S. A.70.05%0.00%Erie, PA M. S. A.70.08%0.00%Fargo, ND-MN M. S. A.170.08%0.00%Kennewick-Richland, WA M. S. A.70.09%0.00%Lewiston, ID-WA M. S. A.70.02%0.00%Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT M. S. A.70.23%0.00%Redding, CA M. S. A.70.05%0.00%Vineland, NJ M. S. A.70.05%0.00%Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA M. S. A.70.05%0.00%Bend, OR M. S. A.60.08%0.00%Burlington, NC M. S. A.60.05%0.00%Chambersburg, PA M. S. A.60.05%0.00%Dover, DE M. S. A.60.06%0.00%Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL M. S. A.60.05%0.00%Gadsden, AL M. S. A.60.03%0.00%Gainesville, GA M. S. A.60.07%0.00%Hattiesburg, MS M. S. A.60.05%0.00%Hot Springs, AR M. S. A.60.03%0.00%Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH M. S. A.60.11%0.00%Jonesboro, AR M. S. A.60.04%0.00%Lawrence, KS M. S. A.60.04%0.00%Lincoln, NE M. S. A.60.10%0.00%Medford, OR M. S. A.60.06%0.00%Santa Fe, NM M. S. A.60.05%0.00%Texarkana, TX-AR M. S. A.60.04%0.00%Battle Creek, MI M. S. A.50.04%0.00%Billings, MT M. S. A.50.06%0.00%Burlington-South Burlington, VT M. S. A.50.07%0.00%Cleveland, TN M. S. A.50.04%0.00%College Station-Bryan, TX M. S. A.50.09%0.00%Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA M. S. A.50.22%0.00%Johnstown, PA M. S. A.50.04%0.00%Lima, OH M. S. A.50.03%0.00%Longview-Kelso, WA M. S. A.50.03%0.00%Mansfield, OH M. S. A.50.04%0.00%Midland, TX M. S. A.50.06%0.00%Morgantown, WV M. S. A.50.04%0.00%Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA M. S. A.50.04%0.00%Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA M. S. A.50.09%0.00%St. Cloud, MN M. S. A.50.06%0.00%Terre Haute, IN M. S. A.50.05%0.00%Wenatchee-East Wenatchee, WA M. S. A.50.04%0.00%Amarillo, TX M. S. A.50.08%0.00%Anniston-Oxford, AL M. S. A.40.03%0.00%Athens-Clarke County, GA M. S. A.40.07%0.00%Beckley, WV M. S. A.40.03%0.00%Bellingham, WA M. S. A.40.07%0.00%Bloomington, IL M. S. A.40.05%0.00%Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA M. S. A.40.08%0.00%Cedar Rapids, IA M. S. A.40.08%0.00%Eau Claire, WI M. S. A.40.05%0.00%Fairbanks-College, AK M. S. A.40.01%0.00%Grand Junction, CO M. S. A.40.05%0.00%Grants Pass, OR M. S. A.40.03%0.00%Green Bay, WI M. S. A.40.10%0.00%Lancaster, PA M. S. A.40.17%0.00%Lawton, OK M. S. A.40.04%0.00%Lexington Park, MD M. S. A.40.06%0.00%Muncie, IN M. S. A.40.03%0.00%Parkersburg-Vienna, WV M. S. A.40.03%0.00%Pueblo, CO M. S. A.40.05%0.00%Racine-Mount Pleasant, WI M. S. A.40.06%0.00%Rome, GA M. S. A.40.03%0.00%Sandusky, OH&#160;&#160;M. S. A.40.03%0.00%San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA M. S. A.40.08%0.00%Sherman-Denison, TX M. S. A.40.05%0.00%South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI M. S. A.40.10%0.00%Staunton-Stuarts Draft, VA M. S. A.40.04%0.00%Urban Honolulu, HI M. S. A.40.29%0.00%Wausau, WI M. S. A.40.04%0.00%Wichita Falls, TX M. S. A.40.04%0.00%Yuba City, CA M. S. A.40.06%0.00%Appleton, WI M. S. A.30.07%0.00%Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA M. S. A.30.05%0.00%Boulder, CO M. S. A.30.10%0.00%El Centro, CA M. S. A.30.05%0.00%Elizabethtown, KY M. S. A.30.04%0.00%Iowa City, IA M. S. A.30.05%0.00%Kahului-Wailuku, HI M. S. A.30.05%0.00%Kokomo, IN M. S. A.30.03%0.00%La Crosse-Onalaska, WI-MN M. S. A.30.05%0.00%Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN M. S. A.30.07%0.00%Lebanon, PA M. S. A.30.04%0.00%Lewiston-Auburn, ME M. S. A.30.03%0.00%Manchester-Nashua, NH M. S. A.30.13%0.00%Minot, ND M. S. A.130.02%0.00%Morristown, TN M. S. A.30.04%0.00%Niles, MI M. S. A.30.04%0.00%Norwich-New London-Willimantic, CT M. S. A.30.06%0.00%Owensboro, KY M. S. A.30.03%0.00%Pittsfield, MA M. S. A.30.04%0.00%Punta Gorda, FL M. S. A.130.06%0.00%Sioux City, IA-NE-SD M. S. A.30.04%0.00%Twin Falls, ID M. S. A.30.04%0.00%Utica-Rome, NY M. S. A.30.09%0.00%Walla Walla, WA M. S. A.30.02%0.00%Winchester, VA-WV M. S. A.30.04%0.00%Albany, OR M. S. A.20.04%0.00%Bloomington, IN M. S. A.20.05%0.00%Bowling Green, KY M. S. A.20.06%0.00%Bozeman, MT M. S. A.20.04%0.00%Cape Girardeau, MO-IL M. S. A.20.03%0.00%Elmira, NY M. S. A.20.02%0.00%Enid, OK M. S. A.20.02%0.00%Great Falls, MT M. S. A.20.03%0.00%Harrisonburg, VA M. S. A.20.04%0.00%Helena, MT M. S. A.20.03%0.00%Idaho Falls, ID M. S. A.20.05%0.00%Logan, UT-ID M. S. A.20.05%0.00%Manhattan, KS M. S. A.20.04%0.00%Mankato, MN M. S. A.20.03%0.00%Portland-South Portland, ME M. S. A.20.17%0.00%Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ M. S. A.20.07%0.00%San Angelo, TX M. S. A.20.04%0.00%Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA M. S. A.20.08%0.00%Traverse City, MI M. S. A.20.05%0.00%Wheeling, WV-OH M. S. A.20.04%0.00%Ames, IA M. S. A.10.04%0.00%Barnstable Town, MA M. S. A.10.07%0.00%Bay City, MI M. S. A.10.03%0.00%Carson City, NV M. S. A.10.02%0.00%Casper, WY M. S. A.10.02%0.00%Corvallis, OR M. S. A.10.03%0.00%Eagle Pass, TX M. S. A.10.02%0.00%Fond du Lac, WI M. S. A.10.03%0.00%Grand Island, NE M. S. A.10.02%0.00%Jefferson City, MO M. S. A.10.04%0.00%Johnson City, TN M. S. A.10.06%0.00%Kenosha, WI M. S. A.10.05%0.00%Kingston, NY M. S. A.10.05%0.00%Michigan City-La Porte, IN M. S. A.10.03%0.00%Oshkosh-Neenah, WI M. S. A.10.05%0.00%Paducah, KY-IL M. S. A.10.03%0.00%Rochester, MN M. S. A.10.07%0.00%Salisbury, MD M. S. A.10.04%0.00%St. Joseph, MO-KS M. S. A.10.04%0.00%Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH M. S. A.10.03%0.00%Amherst Town-Northampton, MA M. S. A.00.05%0.00%Bangor, ME M. S. A.00.05%0.00%Bismarck, ND M. S. A.100.04%0.00%Columbus, IN M. S. A.00.03%0.00%Dubuque, IA M. S. A.00.03%0.00%Gettysburg, PA M. S. A.00.03%0.00%Glens Falls, NY M. S. A.00.04%0.00%Ithaca, NY M. S. A.00.03%0.00%Joplin, MO-KS M. S. A.00.06%0.00%Midland, MI M. S. A.00.03%0.00%Missoula, MT M. S. A.00.04%0.00%Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC M. S. A.00.03%0.00%Pocatello, ID M. S. A.00.03%0.00%Sheboygan, WI M. S. A.00.04%0.00%Watertown-Fort Drum, NY M. S. A.00.03%0.00%Non-MSA&#160;1,26827.40%9.00%* Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States, 2025, Table 6, “Crime in the United States by Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2025.” [8]** Not included in&#160;&#160;2025 FBI CIUS Table 8, so we have created a the subtotal from the 375 city-agency entries identified in the 2025 FBI CIUS Table 8 indicates that it would be at least 428 murders for 2025 The share of murders and population of the major city in counties that had the most murders. As discussed in detail earlier, the city and county data are calculated differently by the FBI and thus should be viewed as approximate measures of the geographic concentration of murders within counties.  Table 7: The Major City Share of County Murders and Population in the 1% of Counties that had the Most Murders (Excluding Counties where City and County are the Same, so New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C. are excluded)City2025 City Murder and Nonnegligent Manslaughter (Source: FBI, Crime in the United States, 2025, Table 6, “Crime in the United States by Metropolitan Statistical Area.”)County2025 County Murder and Nonnegligent Manslaughter (Source: FBI, Supplementary Homicide Report, 2025)City Share of County MurdersCity Share of County PopulationLos Angeles, CA225Los Angeles47547%40%Chicago, IL346Cook36894%52%Dallas, TX139Dallas21266%50%Detroit, MI165Wayne19385%36%Atlanta, GA100Fulton15166%48%St. Louis, MO141City of St. Louis141100%28%Kansas City, MO135Jackson13699%71%Milwaukee, WI142Milwaukee15790%61%Cleveland, OH103Cuyahoga12284%29%Oakland, CA55Alameda8168%27%Charlotte-Mecklenburg, NC93Mecklenburg10589%84%Albuquerque, NM72Bernalillo8189%84%Indianapolis, IN104Marion11095%91%Columbus, OH84Franklin9489%69%Cincinnati, OH66Hamilton7687%38%Birmingham, AL83Jefferson10281%29%Pittsburgh, PA31Allegheny7243%25%Houston, TX272Harris40767%48%San Antonio, TX106Bexar13380%72%Las Vegas, NV91Clark13468%71%Phoenix, AZ127Maricopa23055%36%Jacksonville, FL.Duval89.96%Miami, FL25Miami-Dade10424%18%Oklahoma City, OK68Oklahoma7689%88%San Bernardino, CA22San Bernardino9623%10%Fort Worth, TX78Tarrant10674%46%Average74%52%The 2025 City Murder are from the FBI, Crime in the United States, 2025, Table 6, “Crime in the United States by Metropolitan Statistical Area,” while the 2025 County Murder figures are from the FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR), 2025. Limited data for 2025 were available for Florida. Jacksonville, FL population data is missing from the FBI CIUS, so it was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau.&#160; Here are the political leanings for the worst 1% of the counties in terms of murders (31 counties) Strong Democratic Strongholds (22 Counties / Cities). Note that 43% of the 57% of firearm murders in the 2% worst counties occur in the worst 1% of the counties. These areas are the most reliable Democratic strongholds in the country. Consistently Democrat presidential candidates winning by at least ten percentage points. 
Los Angeles, CA (Biden beat Trump by 44.7 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 32.91 percentage points in 2024) Cook, IL&#160;(Chicago) (Biden beat Trump by 50.2 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 41.55 percentage points in 2024) New York City, NY&#160;(Biden beat Trump by 53.5 percentage points in 2020, All 5 boroughs combined) (Harris beat Trump by 38.2 percentage points in 2024) Philadelphia, PA (Biden beat Trump by 63.5 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 58.74 percentage points in 2024) Dallas, TX (Dallas) (Biden beat Trump by 31.6 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 22.2 percentage points in 2024) Wayne, MI&#160;(Detroit) (Biden beat Trump by 37.9 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 28.97 percentage points in 2024) Baltimore City, MD (Biden beat Trump by 76.6 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 59.4 percentage points in 2024) Washington, DC (Biden beat Trump by 86.8 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 83.81 percentage points in 2024) Fulton, GA&#160;(Biden beat Trump by 46.4 percentage points in 2020, Atlanta) (Harris beat Trump by 38.9 percentage points in 2024) St. Louis, MO (Biden beat Trump by 24.0 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 23.4 percentage points in 2024) Jackson, MO&#160;(Biden beat Trump by 22.2 percentage points in 2020, Kansas City) (Harris beat Trump by 18.2 percentage points in 2024) Milwaukee, WI (Biden beat Trump by 39.8 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 38.41 percentage points in 2024) Cuyahoga, OH&#160;(Biden beat Trump by 34.0 percentage points in 2020, Cleveland) (Harris beat Trump by 34.2 percentage points in 2024) DeKalb, GA&#160;(Atlanta metro) (Biden beat Trump by 67.5 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 62.5 percentage points in 2024) Alameda, CA&#160;(Biden beat Trump by 62.5 percentage points in 2020, Oakland/Berkeley) (Harris beat Trump by 53.6 percentage points in 2024) Mecklenburg, NC&#160;(Charlotte) (Biden beat Trump by 35.1 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 32.68 percentage points in 2024) Bernalillo, NM&#160;(Biden beat Trump by 24.5 percentage points in 2020, Albuquerque) (Harris beat Trump by 21.03 percentage points in 2024) Marion, IN&#160;(Indianapolis) (Biden beat Trump by 29.1 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 27.6 percentage points in 2024) Franklin, OH&#160;(Columbus) (Biden beat Trump by 31.3 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 28.4 percentage points in 2024) Hamilton County, OH (Cincinnati) (Biden beat Trump by 15.8 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 14.9 percentage points in 2024) Jefferson, AL&#160;(Birmingham) (Biden beat Trump by 13.2 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 10.4 percentage points in 2024) Allegheny, PA&#160;(Pittsburgh) (Biden beat Trump by 20.4 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 20.3 percentage points in 2024)
 Democrat counties or Leaning Democratic (3 Counties). At least it is possible for Democrats to win by less than ten percentage points. 
Harris, TX&#160;(Houston) (Biden beat Trump by 13.5 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 5.5 percentage points in 2024) Bexar, TX&#160;(San Antonio) (Biden beat Trump by 18.2 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 9.7 percentage points in 2024) Clark, NV&#160;(Las Vegas) (Biden beat Trump by 9.2 percentage points in 2020, Harris beat Trump by 2.6 percentage points in 2024)
 Swing / Republican-Leaning (6 Counties). At least, Trump showed it was possible to win these counties in 2024, though all but one of these counties were won by Democrats in 2020, and even in the one that Trump won in both 2020 and 2024 the wins were only by about one percentage point. 
Maricopa, AZ&#160;(Phoenix): (Biden beat Trump by 3.47 percentage points in 2020, Trump beat Harris by 3.5 percentage points in 2024) Duval, FL (Jacksonville): Swing county that has switched between Trump in 2016 and 2024 and Biden in 2020. (Biden beat Trump by 3.9 percentage points in 2020, Trump beat Harris by 1.5 percentage points in 2024) Miami-Dade, FL: Historically Democratic, but recently flipped heavily Republican due to shifting Hispanic voter trends. (Biden beat Trump by 7.3 percentage points in 2020, Trump beat Harris by 11.45 percentage points in 2024) Oklahoma, OK: (Trump beat Biden by 1.1 percentage points in 2020, Trump beat Harris by 1.7 percentage points in 2024). San Bernardino, CA (Biden beat Trump by 10.7 percentage points in 2020, Trump beat Harris by 2.14 percentage points in 2024) Tarrant, TX&#160;(Fort Worth): Traditionally one of the largest conservative urban counties in the country. (Biden beat Trump by 0.2 percentage points in 2020, Trump beat Harris by 5.19 percentage points in 2024)
 Table 8: In the counties where the major city doesn’t equal the entire county, how did those cities compare to the county vote in 2024?CityCity: Harris–Trump marginCounty: Harris–Trump marginCity more Democratic byLos Angeles, CAHarris +45.1Harris +32.9112.2Chicago, ILHarris +59.4Harris +39.519.9Dallas, TXHarris +30.4Harris +22.198.2Detroit, MIHarris +~82Harris +28.88~+53Atlanta, GAHarris +~65Harris +38.9~+26.1St. Louis, MOHarris +~65.5Harris +23.40~+42.1Kansas City, MOHarris +~55.5Harris +18.2~+37.3Milwaukee, WIHarris +~57.5Harris +38.41~+19.1Cleveland, OHHarris +~63.5Harris +34.2~+32.1Oakland, CAHarris +76.21Harris +53.5522.66Charlotte, NCHarris +~39.5Harris +32.68~+6.8Albuquerque, NMHarris +~27.5Harris +21.03~+6.5Indianapolis, INHarris +~29Harris +27.63~+1.4Columbus, OHHarris +39.0Harris +28.3710.6Cincinnati, OHHarris +~36.5Harris +14.87~+21.6Birmingham, ALHarris +~70Harris +10.37~+59.6Pittsburgh, PAHarris +~48.5Harris +20.31~+28.2Houston, TXHarris +~15Harris +5.53~+9.5San Antonio, TXHarris +~17Harris +9.74~+7.3Las Vegas, NVHarris +~8Harris +2.63~+5.4Phoenix, AZHarris +~4Trump +3.47~+7.5Jacksonville, FLHarris +~1Trump +1.47~+2.5Miami, FLHarris +0.7Trump +11.4512.2Oklahoma City, OKHarris +~3Trump +1.68~+4.7San Bernardino, CAHarris +~19Trump +2.14~+21.1Fort Worth, TXHarris +~2Trump +5.19~+7.2The ~ sign is used because some election offices don’t publish a presidential total for the city proper. Instead, the exact city result has to be constructed from precinct returns, and for some cities the precincts cross outside city boundaries, making the aggregation more complicated. Table 9: Democrat Control of Mayoralties and City CouncilsPlaceMayor or executiveBallotAffiliationCouncil or legislatureLos Angeles, CA (Harris +32)Karen BassNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; 14 Democrats, 1 independentChicago / Cook, IL (Harris +39.5)Brandon JohnsonPartisanDemocraticDemocratic supermajorityNew York City (Harris +38.2)Zohran MamdaniPartisanDemocraticDemocratic supermajorityPhiladelphia, PA (Harris +58.6)Cherelle ParkerPartisanDemocraticDemocratic, 14 of 17; 2 Working Families, 1 RepublicanDallas, TX (Harris +22.2)Eric JohnsonNonpartisanElected as a Democrat, but switched parties once in office.Nonpartisan ballot; no formal caucus, Democratic-leaning controlDetroit / Wayne, MI (Harris +28.97)Mary SheffieldNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-affiliatedBaltimore City, MD (Harris +59.4)Brandon ScottPartisanDemocraticDemocratic majorityWashington, DC (Harris +83.8)Muriel BowserPartisanDemocraticDemocratic majority. November 2026 election is open; Bowser is the incumbent until January 2027Atlanta / Fulton, GA (Harris +38.9)Andre DickensNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-affiliatedSt. Louis, MO (Harris +23.4)Cara SpencerNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-affiliatedKansas City / Jackson, MO (Harris +18.2)Quinton LucasNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-affiliatedMilwaukee, WI (Harris +38.4)Cavalier JohnsonNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-affiliatedCleveland / Cuyahoga, OH (Harris +34.2)Justin BibbNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-affiliatedDeKalb, GA (Harris +62.5)Lorraine Cochran-Johnson, county CEO; no single city mayorPartisanDemocraticBoard of Commissioners, DemocraticOakland / Alameda, CA (Harris +53.6)Barbara LeeNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-affiliatedCharlotte / Mecklenburg, NC (Harris +32.67)Vi LylesPartisanDemocraticDemocratic majorityAlbuquerque / Bernalillo, NM (Harris +21)Tim KellerNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-affiliatedIndianapolis / Marion, IN (Harris +27.5)Joe HogsettPartisanDemocraticDemocratic majorityColumbus / Franklin, OH (Harris +28.37)Andrew GintherNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-affiliatedCincinnati / Hamilton, OH (Harris +14.9)Aftab PurevalNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-affiliatedBirmingham / Jefferson, AL (Harris +10.37)Randall WoodfinPartisanDemocraticDemocratic majorityPittsburgh / Allegheny, PA (Harris +20.31)Corey O’ConnorPartisanDemocraticDemocratic majorityHouston / Harris, TX (Harris +5.5)John WhitmireNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-leaningSan Antonio / Bexar, TX (Harris +9.7)Gina Ortiz JonesNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-leaningLas Vegas / Clark, NV (Harris +2.63)Shelley BerkleyNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-leaningPhoenix / Maricopa, AZ (Trump +3.5)Kate GallegoNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; Democratic-leaningJacksonville / Duval, FL (Trump +1.5)Donna DeeganPartisanDemocraticRepublican, 13–6 as of August 2026Miami / Miami-Dade, FL (Trump +11.4)Eileen HigginsNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; no formal party majorityOklahoma City / Oklahoma County (Trump +1.7)David HoltNonpartisanRepublicanNonpartisan ballot; Republican-associated majority, about 6–3 including the mayorSan Bernardino, CA (Trump +2.14)Helen TranNonpartisanDemocraticNonpartisan ballot; no formal party majorityFort Worth / Tarrant, TX (Trump +5.1)Mattie ParkerNonpartisanRepublicanNonpartisan ballot; no formal party majority 

[1] https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/downloads
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Firearm-Murder-by-County_MapChart_2025-N.xlsx
[3] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Murder-by-County_MapChart_2025-N.xlsx
[4] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-research-murders-in-us-remain-very-concentrated-in-2024-with-the-murders-in-worst-2-of-counties-remaining-at-their-2020-peaks/
[5] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/08/major-cities-chiefs-association-reports-drops-in-all-violent-crime-categories-for-the-first-six-month-of-the-year-for-66-of-the-67-agencies-participated-in-the-survey-17-2-drop-in-reported-homic/
[6] https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/number-murders-county-54-us-counties-2014-zero-murders-69-1-murder/
[7] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Explaining-LA-crime-data-1.docx
[8] https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/downloads
[9] https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/methodology
[10] https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/data-decs/table-6-data-declaration
[11] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510007101
[12] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510007101
[13] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?geocode=A000011124&#38;pid=3510012701
[14] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220921/dq220921a-eng.htm
[15] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2021001/article/00017-eng.pdf
[16] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2021001/article/00017-eng.pdf
[17] https://www.test.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2025/aian-month.html
[18] https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/hvus23.pdf
[19] https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/hvus23.pdf
[20] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2021001/article/00017-eng.pdf
[21] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2023001/article/00006/tbl/tbl09-eng.htm
[22] https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/sr/sr58
[23] https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-02/sr58_homicide_in_australia_2024-25.pdf
[24] https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-02/sr58_homicide_in_australia_2024-25.pdf
[25] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2024-25
[26] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples/estimates-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-australians/latest-release
[27] https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-02/sr58_homicide_in_australia_2024-25.pdf
[28] https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/rpp077.pdf
[29] https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/downloads]]></content:encoded>
		<media:content url="https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/new-research-the-worst-2-of-u-s-counties-produce-an-even-larger-share-of-firearm-murders-than-of-murders-overall-those-counties-account-for-53-of-all-murders-but-57-of-firearm-murders-most-in-heav/attachment/new-research-the-worst-2-of-u-s-counties-produce-an-even-larger-share-of-firearm-murders-than-of-murders-overall-those-counties-account-for-53-of-all-murders-but-57-of-firearm-murders-most-in-heav-2/" type="image/jpeg" expression="full"></media:content>
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<item>
	<title>The CDC Corrects its Post on Defensive Gun Uses</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/the-cdc-corrects-its-post-on-defensive-gun-uses/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 05 Oct 2026 06:02:14 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67348</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[At the request of gun-control activists such as Mark Bryant, founder of the Gun Violence Archive, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention&#160;removed its defensive gun-use data in May 2022. Bryant had complained that gun-rights advocates frequently cited the estimates to “stop&#160;[gun-control]&#160;legislation,”&#160;In July 2026, the Trump administration restored the post as it originally appeared before [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[At the request of gun-control activists such as Mark Bryant, founder of the Gun Violence Archive, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention&#160;removed its defensive gun-use data in May 2022. Bryant had complained that gun-rights advocates frequently cited the estimates to “stop&#160;[gun-control]&#160;legislation [1],”&#160;In July 2026, the Trump administration restored the post as it originally appeared before the CDC removed it and has now corrected an error in the original version.&#160;This was the CDC’s original post.  Gun control organizations, such as Michael Bloomberg’s The Trace were outraged, with titles such as “Inflated Claim About Guns and Self-Defense Returns to CDC Website [2].” The “inflated” claim was that the range of defensive gun uses ranged from 60,000 to 2.5 million. The 60,000 estimate is from an earlier NCVS. The problem is that 2013&#160;National Academies of Sciences (NAS) report [3] warns the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) estimates are “difficult to interpret because respondents were not asked specifically about defensive gun use.” The report noted that estimates from national surveys as cited by Kleck ranged from about 500,000 to more than 3 million defensive gun uses per year. The CDC has now corrected the information that had been posted [4] and eliminated the lower estimate of defensive gun uses that the NAS report had noted was problematic..The NAS report didn’t make it clear that the 500,000 number was just for handguns, and the top estimate from the NAS report was 3.7 million. But this is a big improvement over what had originally been put up at the CDC website.  What was in the 2013&#160;National Academies of Sciences report [5].  

[1] https://thereload.com/app/uploads/2022/12/CDC-DGU-Emails-Reload-Redactions.pdf
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Trump-CDC-Props-Up-Inflated-‘Good-Guy-With-a-Gun-Data.pdf
[3] https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/18319/chapter/3#15
[4] https://www.cdc.gov/firearm-violence/about/index.html
[5] https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/18319/chapter/3#15]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>CPRC in the News: Daily Caller, El Tiempo (Colombia), Townhall, American Thinker, California’s Peace Officers Research Association, Ann Coulter’s Unsafe, and more</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/featured/cprc-in-the-news-daily-caller-el-tiempo-colombia-townhall-american-thinker-californias-peace-officers-research-association-ann-coulters-unsafe-and-more/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2026 19:45:11 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>Featured</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67106</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Research&#160;by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) showed that murders with illegally modified Glocks were rarer than fatal lightning strikes. By comparison, the National Weather Service&#160;confirmed&#160;81 fatal lightning strikes since the start of 2021 and confirmed 40 fatal lightning strikes in 2016 alone. “The total that we have so far found is 40 murders from [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[ 
Research [1]&#160;by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) showed that murders with illegally modified Glocks were rarer than fatal lightning strikes. By comparison, the National Weather Service&#160;confirmed [2]&#160;81 fatal lightning strikes since the start of 2021 and confirmed 40 fatal lightning strikes in 2016 alone. “The total that we have so far found is 40 murders from 17 attacks where someone was murdered,” the CPRC article said, adding that while they attempted an “exhaustive search,” other killings were possible. . . . Harold Hutchison, “Gun Manufacturer Slaps Connecticut With Suit Over Gun Ban,” Daily Caller, September 23, 2026. [3]
 Screenshot 
Arming the “good guys” against the “bad guys”—within the bounds of the law—will improve the country’s security. Furthermore, studies conducted by John Lott over a 20-year period in the United States concluded that the greater the number of legally owned firearms among the citizenry, the lower the crime rate in society. According to Lott, the 29 states that permitted firearms saw significant reductions in murders, rapes, and aggravated assaults. Homicide rates, for instance, were 81% lower in areas where the carrying of firearms was permitted. Conversely, shifting from permission to prohibition led to increased crime: as a result of a ban, Washington went from having a homicide rate 28% above the national average to one 98% higher. . . . Alfredo Rangel, “Armarse contra los criminales,” El Tiempo (Colombia), September 24, 2026. [4]
  
Dr. John. R. Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center crimeresearch.org&#160;&#160;notes that while Trans aren’t in any real danger, Americans are in&#160;disproportionate danger of murderous attack by trans. [5]Lott found that trans comprise less than 1% of the population. He uses .73% in his data analysis. From 2018 to 2024, they committed mass public attacks at a rate of 6.2 times their share of the population. That figure increased to more than 16 times in 2024. Most Americans know that the Nashville shooter was trans, despite media and government attempts to hide her trans ideology as a motive for that deadly attack. Here’s a short list of other trans killers, including the Uvalde killer, whose trans identity has been largely successfully hidden: Lott has also reported well-hidden information deadly to every trans narrative: As a final note, mass public shooters in particular are overwhelmingly suicidal. Given the high rates of suicide by transgender individuals, it isn’t too surprising that they may be overrepresented about mass public shooters. The&#160;Williams Institute reports [6]&#160;that&#160;about 48% had seriously considered suicide&#160;in the past year, and&#160;~10–12% had attempted suicide in the past year&#160;among transgender respondents.&#160;Compare with the general U.S. adult population:&#160;~4.3% report suicidal thoughts in the past year and ~0.6% report a suicide attempt. If the survey data from the Williams Institute is accurate, the&#160;rate people were seriously thinking of suicide is about 12× higher among transgender adults compared to the general population&#160;and the attempt rate is roughly 18× higher.&#160;Not as much work has been done of the motives of active shooters, but presumably they are similar. . . . Mike McDaniel, “The ‘trans genocide’ narrative: another Democrat hoax,” American Thinker, September 27, 2026. [7]
  Research [8]&#160;by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) showed that murders with illegally modified Glocks were rarer than fatal lightning strikes. By comparison, the National Weather Service&#160;confirmed [2]&#160;81 fatal lightning strikes since the start of 2021 and confirmed 40 fatal lightning strikes in 2016 alone. 
“The total that we have so far found is 40 murders from 17 attacks where someone was murdered,” the CPRC article said, adding that while they attempted to do an “exhaustive search,” it was possible there were other killings. . . . “‘Instead of Enforcing the Law’: Dem Connecticut Faces 2A Court Fight with Major Gun Maker for Banning Popular Pistol,” The Western Journal, September 29, 2026. [10]
 Screenshot 
The tilt is already documented. John Lott’s Crime Prevention Research Center&#160;ran twenty AI chatbots through sixteen questions on crime and gun control [11]&#160;and found that most scored consistently liberal, with several — including Meta’s Llama-2 and Google’s Gemini — reaching the maximum liberal score. Only one chatbot Lott tested returned a response even close to neutral on gun control. The starting point Everytown is working from isn’t a level playing field. It’s a field that already tilts in their direction, and they want AI companies to tilt it further. . . . Staff, “Everytown Wants AI Chatbots to Push Gun Control Talking Points,” The Truth about Guns, September 29, 2026. [12]
 Screenshot 
So, what’s all the “new” news? Recent survey data conducted in partnership between the Crime Prevention Research Center and the well-respected polling firm The McLaughlin Group revealed Americans are significantly more likely to support and exercise their Second Amendment rights now than they were just 18 months ago. They are less likely to support increased gun control restrictions pushed by antigun activists. The three main takeaways from the polling are simple and straightforward. First, “Independent voters are more aligned with enforcement-focused crime policies than additional gun-control legislation,” the polling summary states. The data shows that more than 63% of survey respondents agreed that enforcing existing laws and arresting and prosecuting criminals would do the most to reduce crime, compared with less than 30% who thought passing additional gun control laws would help. . . . Larry Keane, “The New Faces of Firearms,” Shooting Sports Retailer, September 22, 2026. [13]
  
The National Sheriffs’ Association (NSA) and the Western States Sheriffs’ Association (“Sheriffs’ brief”) have submitted&#160;their brief [14]&#160;and&#160;another has been jointly filed [15]&#160;by the Peace Officers Research Association of California (the largest law enforcement organization in California and the largest statewide association nationally), the California Association of Highway Patrolmen, and Dr. John Lott’s well-known Crime Prevention Research Center (“Research brief”). . . .  Likewise, the Research brief&#160;amici note they: share a common conviction that firearms regulation should focus on the misuse of firearms, disarming prohibited persons and those posing a physically-violent danger to themselves or others, confining violent offenders under gun-enhancement statutes, and securing the self-defense rights of the law-abiding, rather than furnishing a symbolic substitute that faults the arm for the consequences of&#160;[under- or mis-applied]&#160;lax enforcement. California’s extreme version of the bans at issue furnishes an additional and more perfect illustration of their perverse and irrational nature. As the Research brief explains, a law enforcement officer may possess what is classified as an “assault weapon” only while employed for duty by a qualifying agency and only if the agency provides a discretionary certification for the gun; off-duty possession is limited to specific locations. Once employment ends due to retirement or otherwise, the former officer has 90 days in which to render the gun inoperable, sell it (only to a licensed dealer), or exile the gun out of state, even as the person and their family members remain potential targets for reprisal and “politically motivated retaliation” attacks. . . . Staff, “LAW ABIDING CITIZENS WITH AN AR-15 ARE NOT A THREAT TO ANYONE” — LAW ENFORCEMENT GROUPS WEIGH IN ON SUPREME COURT “ASSAULT WEAPONS” CASES,” NRA-ILA, September 23, 2026. [16]
  
John Lott did the math: Deportation is a LOT cheaper than prosecuting and imprisoning our raping, murdering, mugging immigrants. . .  Ann Coulter, “criminal aliens,” Unsafe, September 19, 2026. [17]
   Amy Curtis, “Chuck Schumer Told Us the Democrats’ ‘Ultimate Goal’ Is Amnesty for Millions of Illegals,” Townhall, September 29, 2026. [18] Screenshot 
PORAC has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to strike down bans on the semiautomatic rifles its members carry on duty and are required to surrender when they retire. On September 4, PORAC, joined by the California Association of Highway Patrolmen (CAHP) and the Crime Prevention Research Center, filed an amicus brief in&#160;Viramontes v. Cook County, No. 25-238, supporting the petitioners’ challenge to Cook County’s rifle ordinance and Illinois’s Protect Illinois Communities Act. Those laws employ the same feature-based method as California’s assault weapon statutes, and the rule the court announces will determine whether a California officer may retain, after leaving public service, the commonly owned rifle he or she lawfully carried while employed. . . . DAVID E. MASTAGNI and TIMOTHY K. TALBOT, “PORAC Urges Supreme Court to Invalidate Semiautomatic Rifle Bans,” PORAC.org, September 29, 2026. [19]
 Screenshot 
Some let any lawful gun owner keep a loaded handgun in a private vehicle under a traveling or peaceable journey provision, while others require a carry permit for a loaded firearm in the cab at all. For example,&#160;Texas generally allows [20]&#160;lawful gun owners to carry in a vehicle,&#160;while California requires a permit [21]&#160;to carry a loaded firearm in one. Roughly&#160;21.46 million Americans [22]&#160;held concealed carry permits in 2024, per the Crime Prevention Research Center, yet a permit still only travels as far as each state’s reciprocity rules allow. . . . Staff, “Can Truck Drivers Carry Firearms? What the Law Actually Says,” De Santis Gunhide, October 1st, 2026.
 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/05/how-many-people-have-been-murdered-with-glock-style-guns-using-glock-switches-about-40-total-over-five-years/?fbclid=IwY2xjawSFmJNleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFhSlBFRms2aWZZTndwQk9qc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHiyuFPzS-eO2xgXJh2SMPtm9I45OdQ99Qh6Kc_y3FxK8muBqNaEFjZ5EkbGa_aem_bZwFn3J2HKYtm_ZgHqZjdA
[2] https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-fatalities
[3] https://dailycaller.com/2026/09/23/gun-manufacturer-slaps-blue-state-with-suit-over-gun-ban/
[4] https://www.eltiempo.com/opinion/columnistas/armarse-contra-los-criminales-3588696
[5] http://statelymcdanielmanor.wordpress.com/2026/03/06/are-trans-unusually-dangerous/
[6] https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/Suicidality-Transgender-Sep-2019.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[7] https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2026/09/the-trans-genocide-narrative-another-democrat-hoax/
[8] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/05/how-many-people-have-been-murdered-with-glock-style-guns-using-glock-switches-about-40-total-over-five-years/?fbclid=IwY2xjawSFmJNleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFhSlBFRms2aWZZTndwQk9qc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHiyuFPzS-eO2xgXJh2SMPtm9I45OdQ99Qh6Kc_y3FxK8muBqNaEFjZ5EkbGa_aem_bZwFn3J2HKYtm_ZgHqZjdA
[9] https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-fatalities
[10] https://www.westernjournal.com/instead-enforcing-law-dem-connecticut-faces-2a-court-fight-major-gun-maker-banning-popular-pistol/
[11] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/new-lott-study-ai-chatbots-lean-left-on-gun-control/
[12] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/everytown-ai-chatbots-gun-safety/?utm_source=google&#38;utm_medium=organic
[13] https://www.shootingsportsretailer.com/business/the-new-faces-of-firearms
[14] https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25-238/422598/20260831170220549_NsaViramontes_Amicus%20Document%20August%2031%202026%20EFile.pdf
[15] https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25-238/423144/20260904144157000_25-238acPeaceOfficersResearchAssociation.pdf
[16] https://www.nraila.org/articles/20260923/law-abiding-citizens-with-an-ar-15-are-not-a-threat-to-anyone-law-enforcement-groups-weigh-in-on-supreme-court-assault-weapons-cases
[17] https://anncoulter.substack.com/p/video-no-ads-the-ai-hysteria-deporting
[18] https://townhall.com/news/amy-curtis/2026/09/29/schumer-2022-illegal-aliens-comments-n2683773
[19] https://porac.org/article/porac-urges-supreme-court-to-invalidate-semiautomatic-rifle-bans/
[20] https://driverresourcecenter.com/can-truck-drivers-carry-guns/
[21] https://driverresourcecenter.com/can-truck-drivers-carry-guns/
[22] https://crimeresearch.org/2024/12/concealed-carry-permit-holders-across-the-united-states-2024/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>At Townhall: Gun Control Advocates Really Don’t Think There Is Any Age at Which People Should Own Guns</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/at-townhall-gun-control-advocates-really-dont-think-there-is-any-age-at-which-people-should-own-guns/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Wed, 30 Sep 2026 05:11:37 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67209</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[. Gun control advocates have&#160;condemned&#160;the Justice Department’s decision to stop criminally enforcing the nearly 60-year-old 1968 federal ban on licensed dealers selling handguns to law-abiding 18-, 19-, and 20-year-olds. They say it will cause the loss of life. “That’s because young Americans are disproportionately likely to commit gun violence,” claims&#160;the GIFFORDS Center’s Executive Director Emma [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[.
Gun control advocates have&#160;condemned [1]&#160;the Justice Department’s decision to stop criminally enforcing the nearly 60-year-old 1968 federal ban on licensed dealers selling handguns to law-abiding 18-, 19-, and 20-year-olds. They say it will cause the loss of life. “That’s because young Americans are disproportionately likely to commit gun violence,” claims&#160;the GIFFORDS Center’s Executive Director Emma Brown. . It is true that young people commit crime at relatively high rates, but they are also more likely to be victims of crime. A 20-year-old woman facing a stalker needs protection as much as a 21-year-old woman does. Young adults also face substantial risks of becoming victims: Reported rapes are&#160;32% more likely for ages 18 to 20 than for people ages 21 to 23, and the younger group’s homicide rate is 7% higher [2]. . The 1968 law isn’t the only time that the government has raised the age requirement for handguns. The 1968 law barred licensed dealers from selling handguns to 18- to 20-year-olds, but it did not ban them from possessing handguns. In 1994, Congress enacted the first federal law that, with limited exceptions, barred people under 18 from possessing handguns. Eighteen states had previously passed such bans, 15 of them between 1975 and 1993. . Professor Thomas Marvell has the only&#160;&#160;peer-reviewed study [3]&#160;by a criminologist or economist&#160;on this type of age restriction on possession. It was published in the&#160;Journal of Law and Economics, and concluded: “Where the 1994 laws seem to have an impact, the suggestion is almost always that crime increases; thus, there is no evidence that these bans had their intended effect.” . The one public health study [4]&#160;looked at the states that raised the age to purchase a handgun from any source for those under 21 and while it doesn’t account for many of the factors that Marvell does, it found no statistically significant benefit.&#160; . Nor are these findings unusual. Gun bans consistently produce more crimes because they disarm law-abiding good people relative to gang members. Indeed, every place in the world governments have banned either all guns or all handguns,&#160;murder and homicide rates have risen, often by several fold or more [5]. These increases have occurred not only in U.S. jurisdictions such as&#160;Washington, DC, and Chicago [6], where handgun bans were implemented, but also in island nations such as the Republic of Ireland and Jamaica. . Random variation alone would suggest that at least once a ban would coincide with falling or stable murder rates. Yet, murder and homicide rates have increased every single time. . Emma Brown&#160;portrays [7]&#160;the Trump administration’s decision as a refusal to enforce the law. But the administration is only following the majority of court decisions and the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel&#160;opinion [8]&#160;that have raised the same constitutional objection. The&#160;Fifth Circuit [9]&#160;ruled against the federal restriction on handgun sales by licensed dealers. The&#160;Third Circuit [10]&#160;ruled against Pennsylvania’s effective ban on carrying during declared emergencies. The&#160;Eighth Circuit [11]&#160;struck down Minnesota’s minimum age for carry permits, and a&#160;Florida state appeals court [12]&#160;struck down that state’s concealed-carry age requirement. These rulings address different laws, but each recognizes a Second Amendment claim for adults under 21. The only cases that has upheld threating 18 to 20 years old adults as different than those who are 21 is from the&#160;Fourth [13]&#160;and&#160;Eleventh [14]&#160;Circuits. . Today’s 18- to 20-year-olds are adults whose need for self-defense does not begin at 21. Under&#160;Bruen, the government must identify a historical tradition of similar restrictions. The courts found no age restrictions around 1791 when the Second Amendment was adopted; even if we use 1868, when the states ratified the Fourteenth Amendment, as the historical benchmark, only&#160;&#160;three states [15]&#160;had restricted pistol transfers to legal minors. Today, 18 to 20-year-olds are considered adults. . Indeed, the most common laws actually mandated ownership. The majority of courts pointed to the 1792 militia law, which required men to enroll and arm themselves at 18, as evidence against excluding that age group from the right.&#160; . This requirement to own a gun was also widespread among the states. Georgia’s&#160;1784 [16], Maine’s&#160;1820 [17], Massachusetts’&#160;1775 [18], New Hampshire’s&#160;1786 [19], New York’s&#160;1786 [20], New Jersey’s&#160;1781 [21], Rhode Island’s&#160;1779 [22], Virginia’s&#160;1777 [23], and Vermont’s&#160;1779 [24]&#160;laws all required males from 16 years and older to provide a firearm at their own expense and there were fines for those who didn’t have a gun. North Carolina’s&#160;1777 [25]&#160;law also applied to those 16 and older but guns were provided for to men who couldn’t afford them.&#160;South Carolina [26]&#160;and&#160;Pennsylvania’s laws [27]&#160;applied to those who were 18 and up. And these laws lasted for a long time.&#160;For example, from 1792 until 1893 [28], Connecticut males 18 and up were required to provide a firearm following the federal militia law. After 1893, the state was to provide the weapons.&#160; . Today, 18-year-olds generally reach the legal age of majority. That was not true when these laws were being adopted: a 1872&#160;State Department survey [29]&#160;reported that males reached majority at 21 in every state it listed. Many states only lowered the age of majority to 18 during the 1970s. . Unlike today, men under 21 weren’t even considered to be an adult with all the rights that come with it. A U.S. State Department&#160;survey [30]&#160;in 1872 reported that males reached majority at 21 in every state it listed. It wasn’t until the 1970s when states started reducing the age to 18. . Guns can enable violence, but they also help people defend themselves—especially women and people who face high rates of violent crime, including poor Black residents of high-crime neighborhoods. . Drug gangs involved in much of the crime committed by young people will still obtain weapons. A ban will chiefly constrain people who obey the law. . If gun control groups had the chance, they would likely raise the minimum age to buy a gun well beyond 21. . It is true that 18 to 20 year olds commit murder at a higher rate than those 21 to 24, but there is a reason that every time all guns or all handguns have been banned murder rates go up. Gun bans disproportionately disarm law-abiding compared to gang members and other criminals. Ultimately, gun control advocates probably don’t think there is any age at which people should own guns. John R. Lott, Jr., “Gun Control Advocates Really Don’t Think There Is Any Age at Which People Should Own Guns,” Townhall, September 30, 2026. [31]


[1] https://x.com/GabbyGiffords/status/2102504160260129204
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/09/trump-administration-decision-not-to-criminally-prosecute-licensed-dealers-who-sell-handguns-to-18-19-and-20-year-olds-showing-that-the-victimization-rate-for-murder-and-rape-is-higher-for-18-to-20/
[3] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Marvell-age-restriction-guns.pdf
[4] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7489426/
[5] https://crimeresearch.org/2016/04/murder-and-homicide-rates-before-and-after-gun-bans/
[6] https://www.amazon.com/More-Guns-Less-Crime-Understanding/dp/1707911975/
[7] https://x.com/GabbyGiffords/status/2102504160260129204
[8] https://www.justice.gov/olc/media/1461811/dl?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[9] https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/23/23-30033-CV0.pdf
[10] https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca3/21-1832/21-1832-2025-01-13.html
[11] https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca8/23-2248/23-2248-2024-07-16.html
[12] https://flcourts-media.flcourts.gov/content/download/2490173/opinion/Opinion_2025-1698.pdf
[13] https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca4/23-2085/23-2085-2025-06-18.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[14] https://media.ca11.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/files/202112314.enb.op.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[15] https://www.justice.gov/olc/media/1461811/dl
[16] https://michellawyers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/NRA-v.-McCraw_Appendix-to-Brief-In-Support-of-Plaintiffs-Motion-for-Summary-Judgment.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[17] https://digitalmaine.com/arc_act-resolves-1820/31/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[18] https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/307/174/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[19] https://scholars.unh.edu/nh_laws/5/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[20] https://moglen.law.columbia.edu/twiki/pub/AmLegalHist/GunCulture/ConnecticutCodeExcerpts.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[21] https://moglen.law.columbia.edu/twiki/pub/AmLegalHist/GunCulture/ConnecticutCodeExcerpts.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[22] https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-4th-circuit/2137262.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[23] https://encyclopediavirginia.org/primary-documents/an-act-for-regulating-and-disciplining-the-militia-may-5-1777/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[24] https://ldsgenealogy.com/VT/books/Vermont-state-papers-being-a-collection-of-records-and-documents-connected-with-the-assumption-and-establishment-of-government-by-the-people-of-Vermont-1779-to-1786-etc-part-36.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[25] https://michellawyers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/NRA-v.-McCraw_Appendix-to-Brief-In-Support-of-Plaintiffs-Motion-for-Summary-Judgment.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[26] https://michellawyers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/NRA-v.-McCraw_Appendix-to-Brief-In-Support-of-Plaintiffs-Motion-for-Summary-Judgment.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[27] https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-4th-circuit/2137262.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[28] https://armsdb.org/articles/1784-connecticut-militia-requirements?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[29] https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1872p1/d9
[30] https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1872p1/d9?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[31] https://townhall.com/columnists/johnrlottjr/2026/09/30/gun-control-advocates-really-dont-think-there-is-any-age-at-which-people-should-own-guns-n2683821]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>On Sunday Nights with Bill Cunningham Show: To Discuss Illegal Immigration in the United States</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/on-sunday-nights-with-bill-cunningham-show-to-discuss-illegal-immigration-in-the-united-states/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67078</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Krieger Files by Dave Krieger to discuss the unbelievable costs of immigration laws and deportations. They also discussed law enforcement’s misuse of Flock camera data, the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit against San Jose over its&#8230;]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Krieger Files by Dave Krieger to discuss the unbelievable costs of immigration laws and deportations. They also discussed law enforcement’s misuse of Flock camera data, the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit against San Jose over its...
]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Talk at the 2026 Gun Rights Policy Conference: The Effects of Gun Control Policies on Crime and Public Safety</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/talk-at-the-2026-gun-rights-policy-conference-the-effects-of-gun-control-policies-on-crime-and-public-safety/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2026 18:10:39 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67186</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Krieger Files by Dave Krieger to discuss the unbelievable costs of immigration laws and deportations. They also discussed law enforcement’s misuse of Flock camera data, the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit against San Jose over its&#8230;]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Krieger Files by Dave Krieger to discuss the unbelievable costs of immigration laws and deportations. They also discussed law enforcement’s misuse of Flock camera data, the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit against San Jose over its...
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	<title>Trump Administration Decision Not to Criminally Prosecute Licensed Dealers who Sell Handguns to 18, 19, and 20 Year Olds. Showing that the Victimization Rate for Murder and Rape is Higher for 18 to 20 Year Olds than 21 to 23 Year Olds. That is Relevant if a Gun Ban Primarily Disarms Law-abiding People Relative to Criminals.</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/trump-administration-decision-not-to-criminally-prosecute-licensed-dealers-who-sell-handguns-to-18-19-and-20-year-olds-showing-that-the-victimization-rate-for-murder-and-rape-is-higher-for-18-to-20/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2026 03:27:49 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67174</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Gun control advocates have&#160;condemned&#160;the Justice Department’s decision to stop criminally enforcing the nearly 60-year-old federal ban on licensed dealers selling handguns to law-abiding 18-, 19-, and 20-year-olds. Saying it will cause the loss of life. “That’s because young Americans are disproportionately likely to commit gun violence,” claims&#160;the GIFFORDS Center’s Executive Director Emma Brown. It is [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Gun control advocates have&#160;condemned [1]&#160;the Justice Department’s decision to stop criminally enforcing the nearly 60-year-old federal ban on licensed dealers selling handguns to law-abiding 18-, 19-, and 20-year-olds. Saying it will cause the loss of life. “That’s because young Americans are disproportionately likely to commit gun violence,” claims&#160;the GIFFORDS Center’s Executive Director Emma Brown. It is true that those in the 18, 19, and 20 year old age group commits murder at a higher rate than those 21 to 24 [2], the problem is that a gun ban is likely to disproportionately disarm law-abiding 18, 19, and 20 year olds compared to gang members and other criminals. If so, you would have a drop in self-defense with a relatively small change in crimes like murder. The data below breaks down the murder and rape victimization rates. In 2024, according to the CDC WONDER underlying cause of death; injury intent Homicide, there were 1,670 murders of those 18, 19, and 20 years old compared to 1,559 for those 21 to 23. That means that there were 7.12% more murders for those in the younger age group. If one adjusts for the population of the two groups, it still remains at 7%. In 2024, according to the FBI Crime Data Explorer, 2024 national NIBRS master file there were 11,602 reported rapes for those 18, 19, and 20 years old compared to 8,799 for those 21 to 23. That means that there were 31.86% more reported rapes for those in the younger age group. CDC WONDER underlying cause of death; injury intent Homicide; U.S. residents; all sexes, races, mechanisms and states; deaths in 2024.AgeHomicide deathsPopulationRate per 100,000&#60; 1 year2323,615,5986.41 year953,701,8242.62 years663,768,0121.83 years523,690,1291.44 years553,823,7511.45 years343,880,5360.96 years313,965,1480.87 years284,039,5270.78 years284,139,4970.79 years254,172,9640.610 years224,157,4820.511 years284,140,0920.712 years354,144,1270.813 years654,187,0191.614 years1404,272,4343.315 years2234,363,6955.116 years3384,532,6907.517 years4624,538,19510.218 years5734,484,08312.819 years5524,457,16212.420 years5454,485,95312.121 years5374,448,78612.122 years4794,433,30210.823 years5434,521,95912.024 years5074,531,93611.225 years5244,466,65211.726 years4754,458,80310.727 years4364,467,0989.828 years4794,496,34910.729 years4834,570,97410.630 years5034,660,19010.831 years4964,727,79110.532 years4964,825,62510.333 years4964,888,15510.134 years4894,892,22710.035 years5144,747,02310.836 years4294,654,5669.237 years4644,594,68910.138 years4464,593,6559.739 years4114,580,1399.040 years3804,477,0418.541 years3684,530,6958.142 years3524,512,0207.843 years4064,438,6169.144 years3674,410,7808.345 years3164,224,8037.546 years2994,124,2677.247 years2674,066,1716.648 years2293,922,0825.849 years2663,956,7266.750 years2303,874,9665.951 years2403,919,2536.152 years2204,099,0425.453 years2584,333,8026.054 years1994,259,2444.755 years1924,095,0024.756 years1734,001,2464.357 years1584,006,7373.958 years1614,055,4994.059 years1624,201,4443.960 years1494,291,8373.561 years1594,283,0923.762 years1424,285,8773.363 years1364,265,1383.264 years1364,175,8533.365 years1234,084,2523.066 years994,036,1682.567 years983,949,0962.568 years923,760,8142.469 years853,659,1412.370 years883,513,1492.571 years733,348,8062.272 years723,201,9752.273 years763,027,9292.574 years522,863,6321.875 years602,761,4562.276 years542,672,3632.077 years522,783,8991.978 years401,941,0122.179 years481,834,5962.680 years351,751,3662.081 years371,731,0622.182 years231,445,1431.683 years301,260,4792.484 years191,118,4371.785 years17N/AN/A86 years17N/AN/A87 yearsSuppressedN/AN/A88 years15N/AN/A89 yearsSuppressedN/AN/A90 years10N/AN/A91 yearsSuppressedN/AN/A92 yearsSuppressedN/AN/A93 yearsSuppressedN/AN/A94 yearsSuppressedN/AN/A95 yearsSuppressedN/AN/A96 yearsSuppressedN/AN/A97 yearsSuppressedN/AN/A98 years0N/AN/A99 years0N/AN/A100+ yearsSuppressedN/AN/ANot StatedSuppressedN/AN/ATotal20,162340,110,9885.9 2024 reported rape victimizations by recorded age Source: FBI Crime Data Explorer, 2024 national NIBRS master file (nibrs-2024.zip), downloaded September 2026.Recorded age (years)Victimizations01301235255631,27741,77951,88261,73271,62381,66791,627101,753112,164123,590135,115146,376157,429166,734175,460184,464193,846203,292213,214222,947232,638242,563252,395262,335272,188282,149292,056302,027311,934321,884331,870341,898351,820361,698371,628381,537391,425401,394411,309421,208431,121441,016451,0464688247831486874966050631515635254453515544875540356353573745837959333602746125262255632366419565191661586715968137699870103718872817376746575657656775878367943805081508246833984308527862387208822891590189114926937941095796597698599+32Unknown age925All ages, including unknown121,656Ages 15–3055,737 

[1] https://giffords.org/press-release/2026/09/trump-administration-to-violate-law-allow-people-under-21-to-buy-handguns/
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/a-deep-dive-into-murders-who-murders-whom/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Talk at Freedomfest on Restoring Self Defense</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/talk-at-freedomfest-on-restoring-self-defense/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67150</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Krieger Files by Dave Krieger to discuss the unbelievable costs of immigration laws and deportations. They also discussed law enforcement’s misuse of Flock camera data, the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit against San Jose over its&#8230;]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Krieger Files by Dave Krieger to discuss the unbelievable costs of immigration laws and deportations. They also discussed law enforcement’s misuse of Flock camera data, the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit against San Jose over its...
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	<title>New Survey: Voters by a 51.4% to 35.7% Margin Support Armed Teachers, Parents with Children in K-12 Support by an Even Larger 57.3% to 30.2% Margin</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/new-survey-voters-by-a-51-4-to-35-7-margin-support-armed-teachers-parents-with-children-in-k-12-support-by-an-even-larger-57-3-to-30-2-margin/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Wed, 23 Sep 2026 20:58:31 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67130</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[The CPRC hired McLaughlin &#38; Associates to&#160;survey 1,000 general election voters on August 25th, 2026&#160;(cross tabs available here) regarding general election voters’ views on allowing teachers to carry concealed handguns at schools. While voters overwhelmingly approve of the idea by a 51.4% to 35.7% margin, voters with children in K-12 schools are significantly more supportive [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[The CPRC hired McLaughlin &#38; Associates to&#160;survey 1,000 general election voters on August 25th, 2026 [1]&#160;(cross tabs available here [2]) regarding general election voters’ views on allowing teachers to carry concealed handguns at schools. While voters overwhelmingly approve of the idea by a 51.4% to 35.7% margin, voters with children in K-12 schools are significantly more supportive by a 57.3% to 30.2% margin. Those voters without children in school still support armed teachers, but at a lower rate 50.2% to 38%. Twenty-two percent of those surveyed had children in K-12 schools. Only three demographic or political groups oppose armed teachers: Democrats (51.3% opposed to 35.7% supportive), liberals (48.9% to 35.1%), and those classified as “other race” (47.8% to 39.2%). Regionally, respondents in the East are essentially evenly divided, with opposition narrowly exceeding support, 42.8% to 42.3%. By contrast, support leads among every other racial group, with Asians and whites showing the strongest support; among both men and women, although men support the policy more strongly (even women favor it 45.9% to 38.6%); across every age group, peaking among 30- to 40-year-olds at 55.8% to 31.2%; across every type of community, including urban areas at 49.7% to 35.1%; and at every income level, with the wealthiest respondents showing the strongest support at 78.6% to 19.4%. Conservatives, Republicans, those in the south, and those in rural areas strongly support armed teachers. Our previous research on armed teachers was published in the academic Journal of Health Behavior Research [3]. We had also previously looked at all the school shootings in the US from 2000 to 2018 available here [4]. Screenshot Screenshot Screenshot 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/National-Topline-CPRC-08-25-26.pdf
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-X-Tabs-CPRC-08-25-26.pdf
[3] https://crimeresearch.org/2019/01/in-the-journal-of-health-behavior-research-on-should-schools-have-teachers-carry-guns/
[4] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3377801]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Ann Coulter on the Crime Prevention Research Center’s Estimates of the Cost of Prosecuting Illegals</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/ann-coulter-on-the-crime-prevention-research-centers-estimates-of-the-cost-of-prosecuting-illegals/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:31:48 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67128</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Krieger Files by Dave Krieger to discuss the unbelievable costs of immigration laws and deportations. They also discussed law enforcement’s misuse of Flock camera data, the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit against San Jose over its&#8230;]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Krieger Files by Dave Krieger to discuss the unbelievable costs of immigration laws and deportations. They also discussed law enforcement’s misuse of Flock camera data, the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit against San Jose over its...
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	<title>HBO’s Lanterns Pushing the Myth of the Dangers of Concealed Carry Handguns</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/featured/hbos-lanterns-pushing-the-myth-of-the-dangers-of-concealed-carry-handguns/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Wed, 23 Sep 2026 06:35:58 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>Featured</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67110</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Krieger Files by Dave Krieger to discuss the unbelievable costs of immigration laws and deportations. They also discussed law enforcement’s misuse of Flock camera data, the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit against San Jose over its&#8230;]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Krieger Files by Dave Krieger to discuss the unbelievable costs of immigration laws and deportations. They also discussed law enforcement’s misuse of Flock camera data, the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit against San Jose over its...
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	<title>Rep Thomas Massie Mentions John Lott’s Research on Errors in the NICS Background Check System</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/rep-thomas-massie-mentions-john-lotts-research-on-errors-in-the-nics-background-check-system/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 23:58:38 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=67097</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[[embedded content] Congressman Thomas Massie gives a speech on the House floor that mentions Dr. John Lott. Our discussion of the bill Massie is discussing is provided in this write up at Real Clear Politics. Democrats claim that 5.1 million dangerous or prohibited people having been stopped from buying guns since the instant background check [&#8230;]]]></description>
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[embedded content]
 Congressman Thomas Massie gives a speech on the House floor that mentions Dr. John Lott. Our discussion of the bill Massie is discussing is provided in this write up at Real Clear Politics [1]. Democrats claim that 5.1 million [2] dangerous or prohibited people having been stopped from buying guns since the instant background check system went into effect in 1998, but only 0.1% were Referred for Prosecution and the Conviction Rate is Less than 0.01%. 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/05/at-real-clear-politics-gun-background-checks-are-failing-the-wrong-people/
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/12/the-nics-background-check-system-has-issued-5-1-million-denials-since-1998/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Survey: Most Likely Voters Say the Government Failed to Stop Election Cheating and Expect Widespread Cheating This Fall by Almost 2-to-1</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/survey-most-likely-voters-say-the-government-failed-to-stop-election-cheating-and-expect-widespread-cheating-this-fall-by-almost-2-to-1/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 04:58:19 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66724</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of 1,094 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 10-12, 2026 finds that just 34% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the government has done enough in recent years to prevent election cheating, while 52% say it has not. Another 14% aren’t sure. The partisan and educational [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of 1,094 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 10-12, 2026 finds that just 34% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the government has done enough in recent years to prevent election cheating, while 52% say it has not. Another 14% aren’t sure. The partisan and educational divide is very large. While 45% of Democrats believe the government has done enough in recent years to prevent election cheating, only 25% of Republicans and 30% of unaffiliated voters agree. A plurality of liberals and those with a graduate school education also believe that the government has done enough to stop cheating in the elections.  Screenshot A similar divide also exists for whether people expect cheating this fall, with likely voters expecting it by a 60%-to-32% margin. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans expect widespread cheating to affect the outcome of this fall’s congressional elections, as do 50% of Democrats and 57% of unaffiliated voters. Screenshot Now even Democrats and those with a graduate school education expect widespread cheating this fall, and only liberals don’t (by a 52%-to-41% margin). Screenshot 
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	<title>Just 15 House Democrats were willing to sign a letter saying that “We want safety, not lawlessness”</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/just-15-house-democrats-were-willing-to-sign-a-letter-saying-that-we-want-safety-not-lawlessness/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 23:43:17 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66711</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[“We want safety, not lawlessness. We believe Americans deserve secure borders, safe communities, honest government, and an orderly immigration system that protects the country, strengthens the economy, and treats people with dignity. We believe America remains indispensable to global stability, democratic values, international security, and strong alliances. In a dangerous and uncertain world, America must [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[
“We want safety, not lawlessness. We believe Americans deserve secure borders, safe communities, honest government, and an orderly immigration system that protects the country, strengthens the economy, and treats people with dignity. We believe America remains indispensable to global stability, democratic values, international security, and strong alliances. In a dangerous and uncertain world, America must lead with strength, purpose, and partnership.” “Promise to America,” June 26, 2026. [1]
 We previously highlighted the growing number of Democrat politicians calling for defunding the police, abolishing prisons, abolishing ICE, and abolishing national borders [2]. In an open letter, 15 Democrat congressmen declared [3]: “We are capitalist, not socialist,” “We want safety, not lawlessness,” “We are responsible, not reckless,” “We believe government should solve problems, not create them,” “We are mainstream, not extreme,” and “We are proud, not ashamed of America.” Taken together, however, the vast majority of Democrats rejected these statements as too controversial. We find the stand “We want safety, not lawlessness” relevant to the work we do here. 
Organizers of the letter, which had been released earlier this month, unveiled the first 15 signatories on Thursday — two days after primary results that put&#160;democratic socialists on track to double their ranks [4]&#160;in the House. “Politics forces false choices between extremes on right and left,” the letter said. “We reject them.” The letter is led by Representative Tom Suozzi, a New York Democrat who flipped a swing&#160;district on Long Island two years ago [5].&#160;. . . . Tim Balk, “Centrist Democrats Rebuke Party’s Left Wing: ‘We Are Capitalist, Not Socialist’,” New York Times, June 26, 2026 [6]
 

[1] https://www.thepromisetoamerica.com
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/democrats-join-growing-calls-to-abolish-ice-many-democrats-also-call-for-defunding-the-police/
[3] https://www.thepromisetoamerica.com
[4] https://archive.is/o/wweWA/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/24/nyregion/mamdani-politics-influence.html
[5] https://archive.is/o/wweWA/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/nyregion/pilip-suozzi-santos-election.html
[6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/us/politics/moderate-democrats-capitalist-socialism.html]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Talk in Argentina: Making People Safer</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/talk-in-argentina-making-people-safer/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:11:01 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66679</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Here is the audio and PowerPoint for Dr. John Lott’s recent talk in Buenos Aires, Argentina on August 13th. This talk has Lott speaking in English followed by a translator speaking in Spanish. The video in the presentation is available here.]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Here is the audio and PowerPoint for Dr. John Lott’s recent talk in Buenos Aires, Argentina on August 13th. This talk has Lott speaking in English followed by a translator speaking in Spanish. available here [1]. 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/04/elon-musks-retweet-of-our-video-on-fbi-data-errors-gets-36-million-impressions/]]></content:encoded>
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		<enclosure url="https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Argentina-Talk-Audro.mp3" length="69807796" type="audio/mpeg" />
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	<title>CPRC in the News: San Francisco Weekly, The Washington Stand, Open to Debate, Bearing Arms, Ammoland, Reason, and more</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/cprc-in-the-news-san-francisco-weekly-the-washington-stand-open-to-debate-bearing-arms-ammoland-reason-and-more/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:56:39 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66407</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Screenshot John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former senior advisor for Research and Statistics in the U.S. Department of Justice, told The Washington Stand that if the trend continues, the country will experience the lowest ever murder rate it’s ever seen under President Donald Trump. “That would bring the murder rate [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Screenshot 
John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former senior advisor for Research and Statistics in the U.S. Department of Justice, told The Washington Stand that if the trend continues, the country will experience the lowest ever murder rate it’s ever seen under President Donald Trump. “That would bring the murder rate down to about 3.3 per 100,000. The lowest previous [rate] before the Trump administration was 4.5,” Lott said. . . . Quin Delamater, “Crime, homicide rates continue to drop during President Trump’s second term,” SF Weekly, August 13, 2026. [1]
  
John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former senior advisor for Research and Statistics in the U.S. Department of Justice, told The Washington Stand that if the trend continues, the country will experience the lowest ever murder rate it’s ever seen under President Donald Trump. “That would bring the murder rate down to about 3.3 per 100,000. The lowest previous [rate] before the Trump administration was 4.5,” Lott said. Major cities such as Washington D.C. and Philadelphia have both seen crime rates lowered.&#160; Homicides in D.C. are down 43.9% from the first half of 2025, while homicides in Memphis lowered 43.7%, killings are down 38.3% in Houston, and down 27.2% in Philadelphia. Additionally, homicides in Newark fell 64.7%, while murders in Raleigh fell 63.6% as well. “If you want to reduce crime, you have to make it risky for three months to go and commit crime. That means higher arrest rates, higher conviction rates, longer prison sentences,” Lott noted.&#160; . . . Quinn Delamater, “Crime, Homicide Rates Continue to Drop During President Trump’s Second Term,” The Washington Stand, August 12, 2026. [2]
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A new report from the Crime Prevention Research Center tries to cut through the politics by digging into the FBI’s latest homicide data. The findings cover where murders happen, who commits them, who the victims are, and how often murders cross racial lines. Some of the numbers may surprise you. One of the biggest takeaways is just how concentrated murder is in the United States. As we discussed earlier this week, the worst 1% of counties account for 41% of all murders while containing only about 20% of the country’s population. Expand that to the worst 2% of counties, and they account for 54% of murders despite making up just 30% of the population. On the flip side, most counties rarely see a homicide at all. More than half of U.S. counties—53%—recorded zero murders in 2024. Another 16% had just one. Together, those counties make up 69% of all counties in America but account for only 3% of the nation’s murders. The report also looks at who is committing those murders. According to the FBI data analyzed by the CPRC, Black offenders accounted for 56.4% of known murderers in 2024. Lott notes the FBI’s race data combines Hispanic and non-Hispanic White offenders into a single “White” category. He argues likely under-states the number of Hispanic offenders because ethnicity isn’t reported consistently across jurisdictions. This infographic summarizes key findings from a Crime Prevention Research Center analysis of FBI homicide data, including offender demographics, age distribution, and how each group’s share of known murderers compares with its share of the U.S. population. The ratio is meant to answer one simple question: Is this group represented among known murderers more or less often than its share of the population? If every demographic group committed murders strictly in proportion to its share of the population, everyone would score 1.0. Instead, the CPRC found one group stood far apart from the rest. Black males registered 8.3, White males were 1.2, and every other demographic group came in below 1.0. . . . “When people talk about violent crime in America, there’s no shortage of opinions,” The Eillis County Press (Ferris, Texas), August 7, 2026.  [3]
  
. . . We’re hitting record lows for violent crime. We’re safer than we’ve probably ever been in this country, and this is despite a lot of reasons why we probably shouldn’t be. Income disparity, racial tension, political upheaval, and anti-police animosity all would seem to create a recipe for violence, and while it has to some extent, it’s not spilling over into people’s everyday lives. As&#160;Cam noted earlier this week [4], some are expecting the drop to be even greater for&#160;2026 [5]. In addition to what I noted above, something else to consider is that&#160;anti-gunners [6]&#160;claimed that the Bruen decision would put more guns on the streets and that would lead to more violent confrontations.&#160; Well…they were half right [7]. John Lott, head of the&#160;Crime Prevention Research Center [8], is one of the best people I know for pointing out interesting, important facts discovered through polling of American citizens. The original discoverer of the fact that more guns in lawful American hands leads to less crime, Lott has now reported on a few interesting — and in my mind, very important — nuggets from a recent CPRC poll conducted by McLaughlin &#38; Associates. . . . “In the survey, 15.7% carry all/most of the time, with another 15.2% carrying sometimes/rarely,”&#160;Lott reported [9]. “The percent who carry all or most of the time increased from 13.0% in December 2024 to 13.2% in May 2026 to 15.7% in July 2026. But total percent who carry increased from 24.3% in December 2024 to 29.8% in May 2026 to 30.9% in July 2026. So, the total who are carrying increased by 5.5 percentage points (from 24.3% to 29.8%).” . . . So yeah, it looks like the Bruen decision put more guns on the streets. However, as the violent crime rate is historically low, it’s pretty clear the rest of their prediction was nonsense. It’s not a case of the rates being low in spite of the&#160;increase in concealed carry [10], either. It’s because of it. . . . Tom Knighton, “You Can’t Tell Us This Doesn’t Have Positive Impact on Violent Crime Rate,” Bearing Arms, August 16, 2026. [11]
  
Research done at [12]&#160;the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) and published in July of 2026 shows the percentage and number of people carrying concealed handguns continues to increase. A&#160;survey of 1000 [13]&#160;people conducted by McLaughlin&#160; &#38; Associates on July 22, 2026 shows significant increases in the carrying of concealed handguns. In the last 19 months, from December of 2024 to July of 2026, the percentage of likely voters who carried all or most of the time increased from 13% to 15.7%, an increase of 2.7% of the sample. Those who carry sometimes/rarely increased from 11% to 15.2% or 4.2% of the sample. . . .  Dean Weingarten, “Nearly 1 in 3 Voters Say They Carry a Concealed Handgun, Survey Finds,” Ammoland, August 10, 2026. [14]
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John Lott, head of the&#160;Crime Prevention Research Center [8], is one of the best people I know for pointing out interesting, important facts discovered through polling of American citizens. The original discoverer of the fact that more guns in lawful American hands leads to less crime, Lott has now reported on a few interesting — and in my mind, very important — nuggets from a recent CPRC poll conducted by McLaughlin &#38; Associates. The CPRC hired McLaughlin &#38; Associates to survey 1,000 general election voters on July 22, 2026 (with the&#160;full topline results [16]&#160;and&#160;detailed cross tabs [17]&#160;available for readers who want to dig into the raw numbers). The survey builds on prior CPRC surveys conducted in December 2024 and May 2026, allowing the CPRC to track carry rate changes over a 19-month period. “In the survey, 15.7% carry all/most of the time, with another 15.2% carrying sometimes/rarely,”&#160;Lott reported [9]. “The percent who carry all or most of the time increased from 13.0% in December 2024 to 13.2% in May 2026 to 15.7% in July 2026. But total percent who carry increased from 24.3% in December 2024 to 29.8% in May 2026 to 30.9% in July 2026. So, the total who are carrying increased by 5.5 percentage points (from 24.3% to 29.8%).” It might interest those who look at you like you’re crazy to carry a gun that nearly one-third of the respondents in the poll carry at least occasionally. One-third of the population represents a massive number of Americans, a sure sign that concealed carry is now mainstream, not on the fringe, as most in the gun-ban movement proclaim. This continues&#160;the long-term growth trend CPRC has documented in concealed carry permits [19], with 21.46 million active CCW permit holders as of 2024 — a figure that doesn’t even include those carrying under constitutional carry in the 29 states that allow permitless carry. . . . Mark Chesnut, “Study: Nearly One-Third Of General Election Voters Say They Carry A Concealed Firearm,” The Truth About Guns, August 13, 2026. [20]
  
All the training in the world won’t do much good, though, if you’re unarmed when somebody decides that it’s a good day to go out in a blaze of infamy. That’s why the roughly 30 percent of the population carrying firearms for self-defense is a nice start, but not the final word. It breaks down, according to the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), into 13.2 percent who “carry all/most of the time” and 16.6 percent “carrying sometimes/rarely.” Those who carry intermittently will be able to respond when they are exercising their self-defense rights, but they’ll be as unprepared as those who never carry if an attack occurs on a day when they leave their guns at home. . . . J.D. Tuccille, “Twin Falls Shooting Underlines the Need for Taking Self-Defense Seriously,” Reason, August 7, 2026. [21]
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The Crime Prevention Research Center documented that armed citizens stopped 157 active shooter incidents between 2014 and 2022 – more than ten times what the FBI officially acknowledged.&#160; The FBI reported 14. . . . “An Armed Idaho Man Said Something to the Gunman That Democrats Never Want You to Hear,” Deplorable Daily, August 5, 2026. [22]
  
New research by John R. Lott, the head of the Crime Prevention Research Center&#160;indicates [23]&#160;that&#160;“the worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 46% of the population and account for 71% of murders. But even within those counties the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas within those counties.” In fact, it may come as a surprise that 53% of US counties experience zero murders in a typical year, while another 16% record only one murder. Taken as a whole, these 69% of counties account for a mere 3% of all murders nationwide. Furthermore, the 31 counties with the highest murder rates –&#160;just 1% of all US counties&#160;– contain about 20% of the nation’s population but account for 41% of all murders. Expanding the analysis to the 63 highest-rate counties (2% of counties) captures 30% of the population but 54% of all murders. . . . Robert Bridge, “America’s murder crisis not as hopeless as many believe,” RT, August 5, 2026. [24]
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New research by John R. Lott, the head of the Crime Prevention Research Centre, indicates that “the worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 46% of the population and account for 71% of murders. But even within those counties, the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas within those counties.” In fact, it may come as a surprise that 53% of US counties experience zero murders in a typical year, while another 16% record only one murder. Taken as a whole, these 69% of counties account for a mere 3% of all murders nationwide. Furthermore, the 31 counties with the highest murder rates – just 1% of all US counties – contain about 20% of the nation’s population but account for 41% of all murders. Expanding the analysis to the 63 highest-rate counties (2% of counties) captures 30% of the population but 54% of all murders. . . . Robert Bridge, “America’s murder crisis isn’t as hopeless as many believe,” KHMER Times, August 18, 2026. [25]
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Krugman and the Politics of Falling Crime [26] John R. Lott &#124; August 11, 2026 Watch John debate whether guns reduce crime [27] Staff, “This Week: Death is the End… Or Is It?” Open to Debate, August 16, 2026. [28]
 

[1] https://www.sfweekly.com/news/state/crime-homicide-rates-continue-to-drop-during-president-trump-s-second-term/article_9ce9becf-5420-5bcd-aafb-2d7b375b5743.html
[2] https://washingtonstand.com/article/-crime-homicide-rates-continue-to-drop-during-president-trumps-second-term
[3] https://www.elliscountypress.com/news/when-people-talk-about-violent-crime-america-theres-no-shortage-opinions
[4] https://bearingarms.com/camedwards/2026/08/11/crime-analyst-offers-incredible-prediction-about-us-murder-rate-n1233478
[5] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/06/03/anti-gun-states-are-wrong-to-make-concealed-carry-difficult-and-heres-why-n1232728
[6] https://bearingarms.com/camedwards/2026/06/01/anti-gun-media-does-some-myth-making-about-bidens-zero-tolerance-policy-for-gun-dealers-n1232702
[7] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/nearly-one-third-americans-carry-concealed-handgun/?utm_source=google&#38;utm_medium=organic
[8] https://crimeresearch.org/
[9] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-percent-of-americans-carrying-continues-to-increase-from-24-3-in-december-2024-to-29-8-in-may-2026-to-30-9-in-july-2026/
[10] https://bearingarms.com/tags/concealed-carry
[11] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/08/16/you-cant-tell-us-this-doesnt-have-positive-impact-on-violent-crime-rate-n1233517
[12] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-percent-of-americans-carrying-continues-to-increase-from-24-3-in-december-2024-to-29-8-in-may-2026-to-30-9-in-july-2026/
[13] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-Topline-CPRC-07-22-26.pdf
[14] https://www.ammoland.com/2026/08/concealed-carry-survey-voters-2026/
[15] https://crimeresearch.org/
[16] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-Topline-CPRC-07-22-26.pdf
[17] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-X-Tabs-CPRC-07-22-26.pdf
[18] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-percent-of-americans-carrying-continues-to-increase-from-24-3-in-december-2024-to-29-8-in-may-2026-to-30-9-in-july-2026/
[19] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/concealed-carry-permit-numbers-gun-sales-remain-solid-in-2024/
[20] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/nearly-one-third-americans-carry-concealed-handgun/?utm_source=google&#38;utm_medium=organic
[21] https://reason.com/2026/08/07/twin-falls-shooting-underlines-the-need-for-taking-self-defense-seriously/
[22] https://deplorabledaily.com/an-armed-idaho-man-said-something-to-the-gunman-that-democrats-never-want-you-to-hear/
[23] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6971902
[24] https://www.rt.com/news/643879-us-gun-murder-crisis/amp/
[25] https://www.khmertimeskh.com/502007932/americas-murder-crisis-isnt-as-hopeless-as-many-believe/
[26] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/08/11/krugman_and_the_politics_of_falling_crime_154405.html
[27] https://opentodebate.substack.com/p/guns-reduce-crime
[28] https://opentodebate.substack.com/p/this-week-death-is-the-end-or-is]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>At Real Clear Politics: Krugman and the Politics of Falling Crime</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/at-real-clear-politics-krugman-and-the-politics-of-falling-crime/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 17:27:52 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66597</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[. Paul Krugman remains one of the left’s most influential voices. In his&#160;latest column, he argues that President Trump avoids taking credit for the drop in murders because Trump’s ultimate goal is cruelty rather than public safety. Krugman contends that Trump’s policies have made crime worse than it otherwise would have been. But if Trump’s [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[.
Paul Krugman remains one of the left’s most influential voices. In his&#160;latest column [1], he argues that President Trump avoids taking credit for the drop in murders because Trump’s ultimate goal is cruelty rather than public safety. Krugman contends that Trump’s policies have made crime worse than it otherwise would have been. But if Trump’s policies truly reflect “cruelty,” how should we account for the lives they may have saved – particularly the lives of black Americans, who suffer a disproportionate share of murder victimization? . His column illustrates how people on the political left are trying to explain away the truly record-low crime rates under President Trump. . Krugman claims Trump “won’t mention” the good news about plunging crime rates. In fact, Trump has repeatedly highlighted the decline. During this year’s State of the Union address, he&#160;declared [2]: “In the last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history. This is the biggest decline, think of it, in recorded history, the lowest number in over 125 years, since 1900.” He has repeated that claim in speeches,&#160;social media posts [3], and televised&#160;Cabinet meetings [4]. FBI Director Kash Patel and other administration officials have likewise&#160;credited [5]&#160;the administration’s policies after the Council on Criminal Justice reported historically low homicide levels. . Krugman writes that murders are “approaching lows not seen since the 1960s in a number of big cities.” The national numbers tell an even more remarkable story. Since national recordkeeping began in 1900, the previous record-low murder rate was approximately 4.5 per 100,000 people. The rate stood at about 5.0 per 100,000 in 2024, but fell to&#160;just under 4.0 in 2025 [6], and, if the Council on Criminal Justice’s&#160;reported 18% decline [7]&#160;in murders across the nation’s 30 largest cities during the first half of 2026 reflects the national trend, the U.S. murder rate will fall to roughly 3.25 per 100,000 this year – the lowest rate ever recorded. . Reducing crime is not complicated. Governments reduce crime by increasing the certainty of arrest and conviction, imposing meaningful prison sentences, and allowing law-abiding citizens to defend themselves. Recent developments have moved in all three directions. . The FBI dramatically increased enforcement in 2025. FBI arrests&#160;rose 184% [8]&#160;over 2024 levels, while total FBI arrests – including many joint operations with state and local agencies –&#160;increased 197%. [9] . Voters also replaced several George Soros-backed prosecutors in jurisdictions such as Los Angeles and San Francisco with district attorneys who prosecute criminals more aggressively and seek tougher sentences. Across the country, President Trump’s U.S. attorneys have likewise pursued violent offenders far more aggressively than their predecessors. In Washington, D.C., for example, the Biden administration’s U.S.&#160;attorney declined to prosecute 67% of those arrested [10]. Under U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, that figure has fallen&#160;to just 4% [11]. . The decline in crime has also coincided with increased immigration enforcement. During the Trump administration,&#160;approximately 70% of deported illegal immigrants had either criminal convictions or pending criminal charges [12]. Even those without criminal records understand that contact with law enforcement can lead to deportation, giving them a stronger incentive to avoid criminal activity. . It isn’t a coincidence that&#160;felony violent crime rates soared by a record 59% during the Biden administration; [13]&#160;we had a record influx of illegals coming into the country, and violent crime is plummeting now that the border is closed and illegals are being deported. During the Biden administration, at least&#160;12.8 million illegal aliens [14]&#160;either surrendered at the border, were apprehended after crossing illegally, or became known gotaways, but no one knows how many more millions of additional illegals entered without being detected. . More Americans are also carrying concealed handguns for protection. Surveys show that the share of general election voters who carry concealed handguns&#160;increased from 24.3% in December 2024 to 30.9% in July 2026 [15]. Hispanic and black voters are carrying at substantially higher rates than white voters. Among those who carry all or most of the time,&#160;Hispanics and blacks are 2.6 times more likely than whites to do so [16]. That pattern matters because if you are going to reduce violent crime, you must ensure that the most likely victims can defend themselves. . Krugman instead attributes the decline in violent crime to the Biden administration’s American Rescue Plan. Yet decades of academic research find that economic factors such as welfare payments, poverty rates, and similar measures explain&#160;only a few percentage points of the variation in crime rates [17]. By contrast, studies consistently find that criminal justice variables – including arrest rates, conviction rates, sentence lengths, and the death penalty – account for over half of the variation. . Krugman ultimately argues that “the cruelty is the point” and that punishment serves no public-safety purpose (“Punishment isn’t a means to an end, a way to fight crime; it’s an end in itself”). According to Krugman, Trump cannot acknowledge falling crime because doing so would prevent him from continuing his policy of cruelty and inflicting pain. Whatever one thinks of the administration’s motives, the relevant question is whether its policies have reduced violent crime. If those policies have contributed to the historic decline in murders, then they have also saved lives – including many black lives, since black Americans accounted for&#160;almost half [18]&#160;of murder victims in 2024. John R. Lott, Jr., “Krugman and the Politics of Falling Crime,” Real Clear Politics, August 11, 2026. [19]


[1] https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-good-news-trump-wont-mention?utm_source=post-email-title&#38;publication_id=277517&#38;post_id=209956788&#38;utm_campaign=email-post-title&#38;isFreemail=false&#38;r=1imot&#38;triedRedirect=true&#38;utm_medium=email
[2] https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-transcript-state-of-union-2026-c13e2a07df999b464b733f4a6e84dbd4
[3] https://politifact.com/factchecks/2026/feb/12/donald-trump/murder-crime-rate-lowest-125-years-FBI/
[4] https://news.meaww.com/fact-check-is-trumps-claim-about-murder-rate-being-the-lowest-in-125-years-true?utm_source=chatgpt.com).
[5] https://time.com/7357500/crime-homicide-rate-violent-property-decline-trump-covid-19/
[6] https://counciloncj.org/whats-driving-the-drop-in-homicide-how-low-might-it-go/
[7] https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-mid-year-2026-update/
[8] https://www.fbi.gov/
[9] https://www.facebook.com/reel/773355865803074
[10] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jun/25/us-attorney-jeanine-pirro-fixing-dcs-broken-prosecution-record/
[11] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jun/25/us-attorney-jeanine-pirro-fixing-dcs-broken-prosecution-record/
[12] https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/01/20/dhs-recaps-worst-worst-criminal-illegal-aliens-ice-took-enforcement-action-during
[13] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/10/final-data-through-2024-shows-that-violent-crime-increased-even-more-during-biden-administration/
[14] https://homeland.house.gov/2024/10/24/startling-stats-factsheet-fiscal-year-2024-ends-with-nearly-3-million-inadmissible-encounters-10-8-million-total-encounters-since-fy2021/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[15] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-percent-of-americans-carrying-continues-to-increase-from-24-3-in-december-2024-to-29-8-in-may-2026-to-30-9-in-july-2026/
[16] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-percent-of-americans-carrying-continues-to-increase-from-24-3-in-december-2024-to-29-8-in-may-2026-to-30-9-in-july-2026/
[17] https://www.amazon.com/More-Guns-Less-Crime-Understanding/dp/1707911975/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2PYQ4HPEPWQN0&#38;keywords=more+guns+less+crime&#38;qid=1636267088&#38;sprefix=More+Guns+L%2Caps%2C238&#38;sr=8-1
[18] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/a-deep-dive-into-murders-who-murders-whom/
[19] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/08/11/krugman_and_the_politics_of_falling_crime_154405.html]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Argentina is a much more dangerous country than the United States. Total violent crime in Argentina is at least five time higher than the US rate</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/argentina-is-a-much-more-dangerous-country-than-the-united-states-total-violent-crime-in-argentina-is-at-least-five-time-higher-than-the-us-rate/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 13:44:59 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66569</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Comparisons of crime rates across countries often focus on homicides or murders. In 2025, the U.S. murder rate will be about&#160;4 per 100,000 people—roughly 10% higher than Argentina’s 2025 homicide rate of&#160;3.6 per 100,000. It looks like the U.S. murder rate for the first six months of this year has fallen even further, with an [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Comparisons of crime rates across countries often focus on homicides or murders. In 2025, the U.S. murder rate will be about&#160;4 per 100,000 people [1]—roughly 10% higher than Argentina’s 2025 homicide rate of&#160;3.6 per 100,000 [2]. It looks like the U.S. murder rate for the first six months of this year has fallen even further, with an annual rate for the 66 largest cities at about 3.3 per 100,000 [3], so it will actually be below the Argentinian rate. Argentina, like the United States, uses two measures of crime: crimes reported to the police and total crime. In the United States, the Bureau of Justice Statistics measures total crime through the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). In Argentina, there is the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (known in Spanish as Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, or INDEC) National Victimization Survey, though the last time it was conducted was in 2017 [4].&#160;We have previously done a similar comparison with Australia [5] and Canada [6]. Although the media and most public discussions focus on crimes reported to the police, victims report only a small share of violent crimes. This distinction becomes especially important when making international comparisons because reporting rates can vary dramatically across countries. For example, INDEC found that victims reported only 10% of rapes and sexual assaults in 2017. In 2017, the comparable reporting rate in the United States was&#160;40.4% [7]. In 2024,&#160;48.1% [8]&#160;of violent crimes in the US were reported to the police. Everything else being equal, the higher reporting rate in the United States would make its violent crime rate appear four times higher than Argentina’s in 2017 (40.4%/10%=4.04), even if both countries experienced exactly the same level of violent crime. The differences in total crime rates between the two countries are striking. Although the 2025 reported-crime data show a higher rape and sexual-assault rate in the United States, the 2017 victimization surveys paint a dramatically different picture. Argentina’s survey found a sexual-offense victimization rate of 1,700 per 100,000 adults, compared with 140 rape and sexual-assault victimizations per 100,000 people in the United States—a twelvefold difference. Even that comparison understates the difference because the Argentine survey counts&#160;victims, while the U.S. survey counts&#160;victimizations. If someone suffered two sexual assaults or two robberies, Argentina would count that person once, while the U.S. survey would count both incidents. The surveys also cover different age groups. Argentina surveyed adults age 18 and older, whereas the U.S. NCVS covers people age 12 and older. Consequently, a sexual assault of a 16-year-old would fall outside Argentina’s survey population but would be included in the U.S. survey. There is another problem that also makes the U.S. look relatively worse and that involves aggravated assaults. The U.S. data includes the threat of assault, particularly if it involves a weapon. Yet, despite these biases that make the U.S. look relatively worse than Argentina, the robbery rate in Argentina is still about 27 times worse, the aggravated assault rate is 38% worse, and the total violent crime rate is about five times higher. Screenshot 

[1] https://counciloncj.org/whats-driving-the-drop-in-homicide-how-low-might-it-go/
[2] https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/security-ministry-argentina-recorded-lowest-homicide-rate-on-record-in-2025.phtml
[3] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/08/major-cities-chiefs-association-reports-drops-in-all-violent-crime-categories-for-the-first-six-month-of-the-year-for-66-of-the-67-agencies-participated-in-the-survey-17-2-drop-in-reported-homic/
[4] https://biblioteca.indec.gob.ar/bases/minde/env_2017_02_18.pdf
[5] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/01/australians-are-dramatically-more-likely-to-be-victims-of-violent-crime-than-americans/
[6] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/06/canada-is-a-much-more-dangerous-country-than-the-united-states/
[7] https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv17.pdf
[8] https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv24.pdf]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>UPDATED: Despite Lula’s Campaign Promises, the Number of Licensed Firearm Owners in Brazil Increased by at least 18% Between 2022 and 2026, and total guns owned up slightly by 3.3%</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/updated-despite-lulas-campaign-promises-the-number-of-licensed-firearm-owners-in-brazil-increased-by-at-least-18-between-2022-and-2026-and-total-guns-owned-up-slightly-by-3-3/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:04:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=64768</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[UPDATE August 14, 2026: Include the new graph at the top. So there was a 86% increase in licensed firearm owners from 2017 to 2018. There was another 238% increase from 2018 to 2019. Between the year before Balsonaro took office in 2019 to his last year in office (2022) there was a 638% increase [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[UPDATE August 14, 2026: Include the new graph at the top. So there was a 86% increase in licensed firearm owners from 2017 to 2018. There was another 238% increase from 2018 to 2019. Between the year before Balsonaro took office in 2019 to his last year in office (2022) there was a 638% increase in licensed firearm owners. Whether one wants to attribute any of the drop in homicides to more people owning guns it is clear that there was no increase as so many were predicting [1]. UPDATE April 25, 2026: Data directly from the Federal Police shows a different set of numbers (Original Post below). The number of CAC licenses in Brazil increased from 867,472 in 2022 to 1,026,633 in 2026 [2] (see screenshots below), but those are internal government numbers that links aren’t available for. If those numbers are correct, that would imply a 18% increase. Yet, despite the reduction in the total number of guns that each person can have, the total number of registered guns increased from 2,862,948 in 2022 to 2,958,277 in 2026 — a 3.3% increase. During that same period the Brazil population increased by between 3.26 million (1.6%) and 10.5 million (5.2%) over the 203.08 million in 2022, so the increase in the number of people owning guns exceeds the grown in population by 3.5 to 11.5 times. Note hat in 2026, there were about 164 million adults in Brazil [3], so it is still less than one percent of the adult population. These numbers have a direct bearing on how gun ownership is related to changes in crime [4]. There has been growing problems with hidden homicides in recent years. In 2024, Brazil recorded 81,873 missing persons [5], with some cases suspected to involve murders where bodies are concealed, but only 44,127 homicide victims [6]. Some argue that&#160;declining homicide numbers could partly reflect bodies never being found or identified, especially with organized crime [7] tactics (clandestine graves, burning bodies). In the eight years from 2015 to 2022, the average number of missing people was 73,288 [8], but in the three years from 2023 to 2025 it averaged 82,817 (2023 [9], 2024 [10], and 2025 [11]) — a thirteen percent higher rate at the same time that the official homicide numbers have declined. Given that the average number of homicides between 2015 and 2022 was 51,700 and the average number in 2023 to 2025 was 37,700, the gap between missing people and homicides in Brazil for 2015 to 2022 was 21,588 and from 2023 to 2025 was 45,118 — that is a 109% increase in the size of the gap. Luciano Lara, a prosecutor in Brazil, provided a great deal of help in putting this together. He also pointed out to us that 91% of the murders in Brazil go unsolved. 2022  2026  ORIGINAL POST August 5, 2025: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva didn’t do quite what he promised [12]. Lula took office in January 2023 with the promise to radically change the gun control policies from Bolsonaro. While he reduced the number of new firearm licenses, so the growth rate in the number of licensed owners increased at a slower rate, it still increased. In 2022, there were 783,385 licensed firearm owners [13].&#160;Total active reached ~980,000 by mid-2025 [14]. But one thing that Lula did was reduce the number of guns that people could use for self-defense from four guns to two guns [15], though that change won’t prevent people from having a gun for self-defense. The CRAF licenses (Regular Civilian Owners (Posse for Defesa Pessoal)) last for 5 years. The CAC licenses (Caçadores / Atiradores / Colecionadores) for hunting (C açador), sports shooting (A tirador) and colecting (C olecionador) go from 3 to 10 years. All CAC owners have CRAFs (one per gun), but not all CRAF holders are CACs. So the number of licensed gun owners may start to decline in 2027 and 2028, but that hasn’t happened yet. Some terminology for the licensing rules in Brazil. CR – Certificate of Registration – a document obtained from the Army (now, since 2025, from the Federal Police) that allows a citizen to purchase firearms for Hunting, Sport Shooting, and Collecting activities.CAC – a citizen who, having a CR, registers the activities of Hunter and/or Sport Shooter and/or Collector under that CR. It may be one, some, or all of these, but all are commonly referred to as CACs.CRAF – Firearm Registration Certificate – the document registering the firearm in the owner’s name.SINARM – National Firearms System, under the responsibility of the Federal Police, where all firearms in Brazil have been registered since 2003.SIGMA – Military Firearms Management System, under the responsibility of the Army – where all restricted-use firearms in Brazil are registered, including those of security forces and CACs. 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2020/09/remember-all-the-experts-who-said-that-brazilian-president-jair-bolsonaros-to-relax-gun-control-would-lead-to-more-murder/
[2] https://dados.gov.br/dados/conjuntos-dados/sinarm---sistema-nacional-de-armas
[3] https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/brazil
[4] https://crimeresearch.org/2023/05/at-the-federalist-if-brazils-firearm-ban-is-so-great-why-wont-gun-control-activists-bet-on-it/
[5] https://interlira-reports.com/news/homicides-drop-but-violence-persists-in-brazil-2024/29/07/2025/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[6] https://interlira-reports.com/news/homicides-drop-but-violence-persists-in-brazil-2024/29/07/2025/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[7] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67ec0c649eae202448299b40/BRA%2BCPIN%2BOrganised%2BCriminal%2BGroups%2B_OCGs_.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[8] https://en.agendadopoder.com.br/Brazil-has-had-more-than-700-missing-persons-in-the-last-10-years--207-cases-per-day./?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[9] https://www.plenglish.com/news/2024/04/14/brazil-reported-225-missing-persons-a-day-in-2023/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[10] https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/direitos-humanos/noticia/2026-02/brazil-records-84700-missing-persons-2025-or-232-day?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[11] https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/direitos-humanos/noticia/2026-02/brazil-records-84700-missing-persons-2025-or-232-day?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[12] https://crimeresearch.org/2023/05/at-the-federalist-if-brazils-firearm-ban-is-so-great-why-wont-gun-control-activists-bet-on-it/
[13] https://fontesegura.forumseguranca.org.br/numero-de-armas-no-brasil-volta-a-crescer-em-2023-e-pf-tera-que-fiscalizar-ao-menos-48-milhoes-de-armas-de-fogo-a-partir-de-2025/
[14] https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2025/07/01/pf-assume-fiscalizacao-de-cacs-nesta-terca-pais-tem-15-milhao-de-armas-registradas.ghtml
[15] https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2023/07/21/governo-divulga-decreto-que-restringe-o-acesso-de-civis-a-armas-e-municoes-veja-novas-regras.ghtml]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>The Armed Citizen Podcast: Why America is experiencing a period of all-time low violent crime such as murder</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/featured/the-armed-citizen-podcast-why-america-is-experiencing-a-period-of-all-time-low-violent-crime-such-as-murder/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Thu, 13 Aug 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>Featured</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66321</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[[embedded content] John Lott is a noted economist who has studies crime in America, and specifically the correlation between crime and gun ownership. In this video with Frank Miniter of The Armed Citizen Podcast, Lott talks about why America is experiencing a period of all-time low violent crime such as murder. It’s no coincidence that [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[
[embedded content]
 
John Lott is a noted economist who has studies crime in America, and specifically the correlation between crime and gun ownership. In this video with Frank Miniter of The Armed Citizen Podcast, Lott talks about why America is experiencing a period of all-time low violent crime such as murder. It’s no coincidence that all-time high gun-ownership and aggressive prosecutions by the Trump administration—combined with border enforcement—have made a huge positive impact. Frank Miniter, “John Lott, author of “More Guns, Less Crime” on U.S. crime stats and how to lower crime,” The Armed Citizen Podcast, July 28, 2026.
 
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	<title>On Louisville’s Giant 50,000 Watt WHAS: Talking about our research on how heavily concentrated murders are in the US</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/on-louisvilles-giant-50000-watt-whas-talking-about-our-research-on-how-heavily-concentrated-murders-are-in-the-us/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66329</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott talked to Leland Conway about his new piece at Real Clear Politics titled “America’s Murder Problem Is Smaller Than It Looks,” which discusses how heavily concentrated murders are in the U.S. (Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 11:35 to 11:49 AM ET)]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott talked to Leland Conway about his new piece at Real Clear Politics titled “America’s Murder Problem Is Smaller Than It Looks [1],” which discusses how heavily concentrated murders are in the U.S.  (Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 11:35 to 11:49 AM ET) 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/at-real-clear-politics-americas-murder-problem-is-smaller-than-it-looks/]]></content:encoded>
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		<enclosure url="https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/John-Lott-7.29.2026.mp3" length="12892800" type="audio/mpeg" />
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	<title>On Cincinnati’s WLW: To Discuss the SAVE America Act</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/on-cincinnatis-wlw-to-discuss-the-save-america-act/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66272</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on the Cincinnati’s WLW with Bill Cunningham to discuss the SAVE America Act, election integrity, and voter fraud. See also Dr. Lott’s op-ed at Townhall titled “Why We Need the SAVE America Act.” (Monday, July 20, 2026)]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on the Cincinnati’s WLW with Bill Cunningham to discuss the SAVE America Act, election integrity, and voter fraud. See also Dr. Lott’s op-ed at Townhall titled “Why We Need the SAVE America Act [1].”  (Monday, July 20, 2026) 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/at-townhall-why-we-need-the-save-america-act/]]></content:encoded>
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		<enclosure url="https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Sunday-Nights-with-Bill-Cunningham_7192026.mp3" length="33657519" type="audio/mpeg" />
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	<title>Almost Twice as Many General Election Voters Prefer Arresting Repeat Violent Criminals Compared to Enforcing Current Gun Control Laws or Enacting More Gun Control Laws</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/almost-twice-as-many-general-election-voters-prefer-arresting-repeat-violent-criminals-compared-to-enforcing-current-gun-control-laws-or-enacting-more-gun-control-laws/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66279</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[The Crime Prevention Research Center commissioned a new McLaughlin &#38; Associates survey of 1,000 American general election voters on July 22nd, 2026 (cross tabs available here). Despite frequent claims that the public supports gun control as a way to reduce crime, only 24.9% of voters believe passing additional gun control laws would reduce crime, while [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[The Crime Prevention Research Center commissioned a new McLaughlin &#38; Associates survey of 1,000 American general election voters on July 22nd, 2026 [1] (cross tabs available here [2]). Despite frequent claims that the public supports gun control as a way to reduce crime, only 24.9% of voters believe passing additional gun control laws would reduce crime, while an even smaller share (22.6%) believe stricter enforcement of existing gun control laws would do so. Combined, just 47.5% of voters think gun control plays the primary role in reducing crime. By comparison, 44.2% believe the better approach is to arrest criminals and keep them in jail. Most public opinion surveys present a false choice by limiting respondents to two gun control options: passing additional gun control laws or enforcing existing ones more aggressively. That design makes it appear that the only ways to reduce crime involve gun control. Whether respondents favor new gun control laws or stricter enforcement of existing laws, both answers assume that gun control provides the primary solution. Our survey offered respondents another option—arresting criminals and keeping them in jail—and their responses changed dramatically. For example, a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted December 17–19, 2024 [3], asked the traditional question. In that survey, 56% preferred stricter enforcement of existing gun control laws and 31% favored passing additional gun control laws. Both percentages are substantially higher than in our survey, where respondents also had the option of prioritizing the arrest and incarceration of violent repeat offenders. Police resources are limited. When officers spend more time enforcing gun control laws, they inevitably have less time to identify, arrest, and help convict violent repeat offenders. The demographic patterns are also noteworthy. Men and women alike, as well as every age group, favor having police concentrate on arresting violent repeat criminals rather than emphasizing gun control. The same pattern holds across every racial group except Asians. Screenshot Only liberals and Democrats prioritize gun control over having police concentrate on arresting violent repeat criminals. They are the only groups that prefer either passing additional gun control laws or more strictly enforcing existing gun control laws to focusing police resources on repeat violent offenders. By contrast, every other ideological, affluence, and marital-status group favors having police concentrate on arresting violent repeat criminals. Screenshot Finally, ideological views strongly predict support for additional gun control.&#160;Very liberal general election voters&#160;express the strongest support, followed in order by&#160;somewhat liberal voters,&#160;moderates,&#160;somewhat conservative voters, and&#160;very conservative voters, who express the least support. Screenshot 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-Topline-CPRC-07-22-26.pdf
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-X-Tabs-CPRC-07-22-26.pdf
[3] https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/41_blame_mental_health_for_mass_shootings?utm_campaign=RR12242024DN&#38;utm_source=criticalimpact&#38;utm_medium=email]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>At The Federalist: Socialists’ Demands To Abolish Police And Prisons Will Mean More Dead Americans</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/at-the-federalist-socialists-demands-to-abolish-police-and-prisons-will-mean-more-dead-americans/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 13:54:45 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66470</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[. Democrats insist that “Black Lives Matter,” yet many increasingly embrace policies that protect violent criminals at the expense of black victims.&#160; . What these Democrats ignore is that criminals overwhelmingly prey on people like themselves. About&#160;90% of Black homicide victims are killed by other Blacks, and&#160;70% of Black violent crime victims are victimized by [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[.
Democrats insist that “Black Lives Matter,” yet many increasingly embrace policies that protect violent criminals at the expense of black victims.&#160; . What these Democrats ignore is that criminals overwhelmingly prey on people like themselves. About&#160;90% of Black homicide victims are killed by other Blacks [1], and&#160;70% of Black violent crime victims are victimized by Black offenders [2]. . Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Michigan, has&#160;argued [3]&#160;that systemic racism shapes the criminal justice system and has advocated defunding the police and reduced imprisonment.&#160;In tweets and interviews [4]&#160;in 2020 and 2021, he made comments such as, “I believe that we do need to defund the police.” “The police have become standing armies we deploy against our own people,” was among the thousands of his tweets he&#160;deleted [5].&#160; . Darializa Avila Chevalier, who won the Democratic nomination for Congress in New York City and appears likely to win the general election,&#160;campaigns on abolishing prisons [6]&#160;and&#160;would not even say that murderers belong in prison. When asked why he supported Chevalier, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani replied that she represented the “politics of life [7].” . Wisconsin State Rep. Francesca Hong, the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination for governor, declared,&#160;“I support defunding the police as a first step towards abolishing the police [8]” and “Police exist to uphold white supremacy. Defund then abolish. Reform can’t be an option [9].”&#160;On July 22, 2026, Hong&#160;added [10]: “We no longer can have a system that protects a power and a privilege that puts the pain and lives of armed officers over black people. We cannot protect a system that continues to rain harm and terror.” . These politicians are far from isolated. In 2024,&#160;61 House Democrats voted against [11]&#160;a resolution condemning calls to defund the police and expressing support for law enforcement. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) stated her position&#160;plainly [12]: “No more policing, incarceration, and militarization. It can’t be reformed.” . The number of politicians embracing those positions has continued to grow. “It’s not just a few people anymore,” as Bill Maher recently&#160;observed [13]&#160;on ABC News. “I read every day about a new person in Colorado or Wisconsin saying some variation of: not defund the police—abolish the police, no prisons, no police.” . Because violent crime is heavily concentrated in minority neighborhoods, reducing the likelihood that violent offenders are arrested, incarcerated, or deterred inevitably increases the risks faced by law-abiding black residents.&#160;Fifty-four percent of murders in the U.S. occur in just 2% of the counties [14], and within those counties, on average about 2/3rds of their murders occur within ten block areas. The harm in those areas goes well beyond the direct victims of the crime.&#160; . Despite claims that these policies speak for blacks, surveys consistently find that black Americans overwhelmingly want at least the same or greater police presence in neighborhoods with high crime. Even at the height of the Black Lives Matter movement in August 2020, a Gallup survey&#160;found [15]&#160;that&#160;81%&#160;of black Americans wanted police to spend&#160;the same amount of time (61%) or more time (20%)&#160;in their neighborhoods. Gallup noted that “Only 22% of black Americans favor abolishing police departments.” . A 2025 survey of Chicago residents by M3 Strategies&#160;indicated [16]&#160;that 59% of blacks strongly supported hiring more police officers and another 27% somewhat supported that. Only 11% opposed the idea. Still another&#160;late July 2026 survey by Rasmussen Reports [17]&#160;shows that&#160;&#160;blacks likely voters oppose proposals to abolish police by 58%-to-33%. . These Democrats at least have a consistent philosophy. They demand eliminating prisons, abolishing or defunding police, weakening immigration enforcement, and restricting law-abiding citizens’ ability to defend themselves. Mamdani has declared,&#160;“We need to ban all guns [18].”&#160;Hong&#160;earned [19]&#160;the endorsements of Michael Bloomberg’s gun-control organizations. Abdul El-Sayed, the leading Democratic candidate for Michigan’s U.S. Senate nomination,&#160;complains [20], “Too many elected officials are scared of a corporate gun lobby … I will never take a dime from the gun lobby,” and he supports virtually every major gun-control proposal now under debate. . The same pattern extends to immigration. The&#160;Chicago Sun-Times&#160;reported [21]&#160;that “an increasing number of established Democrats are calling for a dissolution of the federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.”&#160;More than 40 House Democrats [22]&#160;support legislation to abolish ICE. During the Biden administration, at least&#160;12.8 million illegal aliens [23]&#160;either surrendered at the border, were apprehended after crossing illegally, or became known gotaways, and no one knows how many additional migrants entered without being detected.&#160; . Recent data for New York shows that illegal aliens are overrepresented in the incarcerated population in the state compared to their overall share of the state population by&#160;at least 3.4 times [24]. Of course, illegals harm minorities in other ways. Increasing the supply of low-skilled workers also intensifies competition for the same jobs and puts downward pressure on wages for the poorest, least-skilled Americans whom these Democrats claim to champion. . While Democrats claim that “black lives matter,” their policies of defunding the police and getting rid of prisons means more people will die and be victims of crime, particularly blacks. If there are no real penalties for murdering people, there will be more murder. The common thread running through these policies is that they lower the costs of committing crime while making it harder for law-abiding Americans to protect themselves and their families. Democrats need to act as if black lives truly matter. John R. Lott, Jr., “Socialists’ Demands To Abolish Police And Prisons Will Mean More Dead Americans,” The Federalist, August 10, 2026. [25]


[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/a-deep-dive-into-murders-who-murders-whom/
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/07/with-the-attacks-in-cincinnati-what-is-the-rate-of-intraracial-violent-crime-blacks-committed-violent-crime-against-whites-9-2-times-more-than-the-reverse-blacks-committed-violent-crime-against-asi/
[3] https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/ebo/date/2025-11-10/segment/01?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[4] https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/07/politics/kfile-abdul-el-sayed-michigan-senate-defund-police-fact-check
[5] https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/michigan-democrat-deleted-tweets-about-defunding-the-police/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[6] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/the-next-congresswoman-for-nyc-calls-for-abolition-prisons-wont-say-murderers-should-go-to-prison/
[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqPB3aMK6VI
[8] https://x.com/FrancescaHongWI/status/1297931960124416001?s=20
[9] https://www.wkow.com/news/politics/defund-then-abolish-a-leading-democrat-in-wisconsin-governor-s-race-urged-abolishing-police/article_58989e94-8cdd-43c5-ab19-ad23bba1b322.html
[10] https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/crime/2026/07/22/madison-police-report-shooting-one-injured/91014742007/
[11] https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2024218
[12] https://justthenews.com/government/congress/tlaib-says-us-policing-intentionally-racist-cant-be-reformed
[13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVv_-jaBnZk
[14] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6971902
[15] https://news.gallup.com/poll/316571/black-americans-police-retain-local-presence.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[16] https://namelyliberty.com///Users/jlott/Library/Containers/com.apple.mail/Data/Library/Mail%20Downloads/B00E295F-F938-4D1E-AB4F-57505042A997/Only%2022%2525%20of%20Black%20Americans%20favor%20abolishing%20police%20departments
[17] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/08/new-survey-only-19-of-likely-voters-support-abolishing-prisons-only-27-support-abolishing-borders-and-giving-amnesty-to-all-illegal-aliens/
[18] https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani/status/1529223283647848448?s=20
[19] https://www.facebook.com/FrancescaHongWI/photos/june-is-gun-violence-awareness-month-and-this-is-wear-orange-weekend-a-time-to-r/1384959670110037/
[20] https://www.ontheissues.org/governor/Abdul_El-Sayed_Gun_Control.htm
[21] https://chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/2026/01/17/abolish-ice-movement-illinois-democrats-delia-ramirez-juliana-stratton-patty-garcia
[22] https://iaproject.org/accountability/legislation/119hr7346/#tabs
[23] https://homeland.house.gov/2024/10/24/startling-stats-factsheet-fiscal-year-2024-ends-with-nearly-3-million-inadmissible-encounters-10-8-million-total-encounters-since-fy2021/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[24] https://nypost.com/2025/12/28/opinion/new-data-reveals-horrific-truth-about-illegal-immigrant-crime/
[25] https://thefederalist.com/2026/08/10/socialists-demands-to-abolish-police-and-prisons-will-mean-more-dead-americans/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Major Cities Chiefs Association reports drops in all violent crime categories for the first six month of the year for 66 of the 67 agencies participated in the survey: 17.2% drop in reported homicides, a 6.2% drop in reported rapes, a 16.6% drop in reported robberies, and a 5.7% drop in reported aggravated assaults.</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/major-cities-chiefs-association-reports-drops-in-all-violent-crime-categories-for-the-first-six-month-of-the-year-for-66-of-the-67-agencies-participated-in-the-survey-17-2-drop-in-reported-homic/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Sun, 09 Aug 2026 05:52:37 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66453</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[A new report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) finds that reported violent crime declined across&#160;every category&#160;in the United States compared with 2025. The organization highlighted the broad&#160;decline&#160;as the first across-the-board drop since 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the 67 U.S. agencies included in the MCCA report, 66 participated in the midyear survey. [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[A new report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA [1]) finds that reported violent crime declined across&#160;every category [2]&#160;in the United States compared with 2025. The organization highlighted the broad&#160;decline [3]&#160;as the first across-the-board drop since 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the 67 U.S. agencies included in the MCCA report, 66 participated in the midyear survey. Their data showed a 17.2 percent drop in reported homicides, a 6.2 percent drop in reported rapes, a 16.6 percent drop in reported robberies, and a 5.7 percent drop in reported aggravated assaults. Several major cities recorded particularly sharp declines in reported homicides. Washington, D.C., reported 46 homicides during the first half of 2026, down from 82 during the same period in 2025. Raleigh, North Carolina, reported four homicides, down from 11, while Miami, Florida, reported eight, down from 16. Overall, participating agencies reported 449 fewer homicides in the first half of 2026 than during the same period in 2025. The Council on Criminal Justice earlier&#160;reported 18% decline [4]&#160;in murders across the nation’s 30 largest cities during the first half of 2026. The national numbers tell a remarkable story. Since national record keeping began in 1900, the previous record-low murder rate was about 4.5 per 100,000 people. The rate stood at about 5.0 per 100,000 in 2024, but fell to&#160;just under 4.0 in 2025 [5]. If these numbers from the MCCA and the Council on Criminal Justice reflect the national trend, the U.S. murder rate will fall to roughly 3.25 to 3.28 per 100,000 this year—the lowest rate ever recorded.&#160; 

[1] https://archive.is/o/Byd8A/https://lawenforcementtoday.com/wisconsin-police-chief-israel-trip-training-seminar
[2] https://archive.is/o/Byd8A/https://majorcitieschiefs.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/MCCA-Violent-Crime-Report-2026-and-2025-Midyear.pdf
[3] https://archive.is/o/Byd8A/https://lawenforcementtoday.com/done-the-crime-drop-everyones-claiming-credit-for-and-no-one-can-explain
[4] https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-mid-year-2026-update/
[5] https://counciloncj.org/whats-driving-the-drop-in-homicide-how-low-might-it-go/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>New York Times actually runs a positive story about the Citizen who used his gun to stop the mass public shooting at the In-N-Out Burger restaurant in Twin Falls, Idaho</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/new-york-times-actually-runs-a-positive-story-about-the-citizen-who-used-his-gun-to-stop-the-mass-public-shooting-at-the-in-n-out-burger-restaurant-in-twin-falls-idaho/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 21:28:39 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66436</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Given how incredibly rare it is for the New York Times to give positive news coverage to a civilian who stopped a mass public shooting (and these occur all the time without getting news coverage), you have to give them credit when they do cover such a story. . Jordan Salinas did not notice the [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Given how incredibly rare it is for the New York Times to give positive news coverage to a civilian who stopped a mass public shooting (and these occur all the time without getting news coverage [1]), you have to give them credit when they do cover such a story..
Jordan Salinas did not notice the new sign on the counter at his favorite coffee shop until a barista pointed it out. Help show your support, the sign read, by contributing to a gift card for Mr. Salinas’s “bravery and selfless act during the recent tragic event.” Customers had already pooled $630, the barista noted. Mr. Salinas, 35, with long hair tucked under a cap and a pistol holstered on his hip, appeared to be taken aback. It didn’t feel right. The donations, the praise, the handshakes. All of it was to thank Mr. Salinas for something he wished had never happened. He pulled out his wallet and paid for his coffee. . . . Mr. Salinas had trained for this moment for years, studying videos of drills online in case he ever had to protect his brother and others from a potential mass shooting. He had been shooting guns for even longer — since he was in grade school, he said, if not before. Back then he shot at a broken television in the backyard. Over the years, he had drawn his gun only at targets. He had long wondered about how he would react to an active shooter. Now, he was looking down his sight at another man. He raised his handgun. . . . Mr. Salinas returned to parts of his daily life, too. He petted horses, watched YouTube videos and picked up coffee at his go-to cafe. He has struggled with what to say, what to feel and what to think about those who try to claim him as a member of their political tribe. Yes, he’s grateful for Idaho’s gun laws, which allow most people to carry a concealed gun without a license. And he hopes other people consider safely carrying a gun and learning how to respond to a similar attack. Mr. Salinas, who described himself as “pro-freedom,” said he cares about politics. But in that moment in the In-N-Out parking lot, politics was the last thing on his mind. . . . Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, “He Trained to Stop a Mass Shooting. When the Moment Came, He Was Ready,” New York Times, August 7, 2026. [2]


[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2023/06/uber-driver-in-chicago-stops-mass-public-shooting/
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/07/us/twin-falls-idaho-shooting.html?unlocked_article_code=1.3lA.ZSgh.3ceKK2w5RqGk&#38;smid=nytcore-ios-share]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>CPRC in the News: Concord Monitor, The Patriot Post, Daily Journal, American Rifleman, and more</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/cprc-in-the-news-concord-monitor-the-patriot-post-daily-journal-american-rifleman-and-more/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:22:44 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65814</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[A national survey commissioned by the Crime Prevention Research Center and conducted this year validates what Second Amendment advocates have long argued: the public rejects the gun control premise. When asked what would do the most to reduce violent crime, voters overwhelmingly favored holding criminals accountable over passing new restrictions. Thirty-one percent of respondents chose [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[ 
A national survey commissioned by the Crime Prevention Research Center and conducted this year validates what Second Amendment advocates have long argued: the public rejects the gun control premise. When asked what would do the most to reduce violent crime, voters overwhelmingly favored holding criminals accountable over passing new restrictions. Thirty-one percent of respondents chose enforcing existing laws as the best way to lower crime rates, while more than 30% favored arresting and prosecuting violent and repeat offenders. Only 30% supported passing new firearm-related legislation. Combined, enforcement-focused solutions outperformed new gun-control measures by more than 30 percentage points. The message from the American people to their legislators is remarkably simple: hold violent criminals accountable, stop treating law-abiding citizens like the problem, and trust ordinary people pursuing their own happiness. . . .Kate Giddins, “What becoming an American taught me about liberty,” Concord Monitor, July 9, 2026. [1]
  
Back to crime. Just yesterday, researcher John Lott&#160;published an article [2]&#160;doing what he does best: highlighting the real statistics about violent crime. “While the United States still leads in some categories,” he says, “on the whole it has significantly less violent crime per capita than [Australia and Canada].” He explains: . . .  Nate Jackson, “Appeals Court Tramples the Second Amendment, Upholding ‘Assault Weapons’ Ban,” Patriot Post, July 10, 2026. [3]
 Screenshot 
The number of concealed handgun permits has been growing exponentially. In 1999, there were 2.7 million concealed handgun permit holders in the U.S. There are now at least 21.8 million permits in the U.S. John R. Lott, Jr.,&#160;Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2023, . . .  William Slomanson, “The 2nd Amendment meets the front door of private property,” Daily Journal July 6, 2026. [4]
  
As John Lott, founder and president of the Crime Prevention Research Center,&#160;explained it [5]&#160;recently, both Australia and the United States use “large-scale surveys that estimate total crime, not just crimes reported to police. The Australian Bureau of Statistics runs such a survey annually. In the United States, the Bureau of Justice Statistics conducts the National Crime Victimization Survey, which surveys about 240,000 people each year. When we compare these broader estimates, Australia’s rape and sexual assault rate is roughly three times higher than that of the United States. Australia’s assault rate is about twice as high, and its burglary rate is about 2.5 times higher. Robbery is the only category where the two countries report similar rates.” . . .Frank Miniter, “Meet an Australian Visiting America to Warn Us,” American Rifleman, July 11, 2026. [6]
  
The&#160;Crime Prevention Research Center [7]&#160;(CPRC) recently partnered with the polling firm McLaughlin &#38; Associates, and&#160;their efforts [8]&#160;revealed that Americans are significantly more likely to support and exercise their Second Amendment rights now than they were just 18 months ago. At the same time, they are less likely to support increased gun control restrictions pushed by anti-gun activists. First, let’s look at the increase in practice. According to the responses, the percent of Americans carrying a firearm for self-defense jumped from 24.3 percent in December 2024 to 29.8 percent in May 2026. Breaking it down a little more, the poll report stated: “13.2% carry all/most of the time, with another 16.6% carrying sometimes/rarely. The percent who carry all or most the time is virtually the same as the percent who carried similarly in&#160;December 2024 [9]. But the percent who carry at least some of the time or rarely has increased by 5.4 percentage points (from 11.2% to 16.6%).” That’s a pretty significant increase. Especially considering anti-gun states continue to pass or defend in court new laws aimed at reducing the opportunity to legally carry. The trend tracks with&#160;the broader expansion of concealed carry licensing nationally [10], where there are now over 21.46 million adult permit-holders in the United States — with women, Asians, and African-Americans representing the fastest-growing demographic segments. . . .  Mark Chesnut, “Latest Poll: Concealed Carry Jumps Sharply As Support For More Gun Control Tumbles,” The Truth about Guns, July 1, 2026. [11]
  Evidence compiled by the&#160;Crime Prevention Research Center&#160;shows that the sources the media relied on undercounted the number of instances in which armed citizens have thwarted such attacks by&#160;an order of more than ten, saving untold numbers of lives. Of course, law-abiding citizens stopping these attacks&#160;are not rare [12]. What is rare is national news coverage of those incidents. Although those many news stories about the Greenwood shooting also suggested that the defensive use of guns might endanger others, there is no evidence that these acts have harmed innocent victims. “Trust the Science,” The View From North Central Idaho, July 1, 2026. [13]  
her, Right-to-Carry permit holders have proven themselves trustworthy. Examining permit revocation data for his annual&#160;“Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States” report [14], Economist John Lott determined, “Even given the low conviction rate for police, concealed carry permit holders are even more law-abiding than police.” . . . Staff, “PRESIDENT TRUMP REITERATES SUPPORT FOR NATIONAL RIGHT-TO-CARRY RECIPROCITY AND NRA,” NRA-ILA, June 29, 2026. [15]
  
National reciprocity legislation [16]&#160;is now something we know the Trump administration is working on. While it’s not the ideal situation–national constitutional carry would be so much better–it’s far better than the status quo. As it stands, a permit in one state might be recognized in another, or it might not. You have to navigate the insane patchwork of laws, all to exercise a constitutionally protected right. But if you have a driver’s license in Minnesota, you can drive anywhere in the United States. Your license is accepted everywhere, even though driving is considered a privilege and the right to keep and bear arms is a right. Yeah, someone try to make that make sense. Writing at Real Clear Politics, John Lott&#160;makes the case for national reciprocity. [17] Much of the gun-control debate centers on hypothetical risks. With reciprocity, however, we don’t have to speculate. With&#160;21.5 million [18]&#160;concealed handgun permit holders in the United States, we already know how they behave. In addition, most Americans already benefit from reciprocity. The&#160;average state [19]&#160;recognizes permits from 30 other states, allowing permit holders to travel legally with their firearms. Last year, when House Judiciary Committee passed national reciprocity along party lines, Democrats&#160;also opposed [20]&#160;legislation that would allow current and retired law enforcement officers with at least ten years of service to carry firearms in facilities open to the public – including schools – while traveling across the country. Given&#160;their fear [21]&#160;that allowing experienced current or retired law enforcement officers to carry would endanger public safety, it comes as no surprise that they also oppose allowing civilians to carry across state lines. Congressional opponents of reciprocity warned that permit holders would commit crimes but cited no evidence to support that claim. The facts point in the opposite direction. Concealed handgun permit holders are extraordinarily law-abiding. States&#160;revoke their permits for firearm-related violations at rates measured in thousandths – or even ten-thousandths – of one percent [22]. Police officers rarely commit firearm crimes, yet permit holders lose their permits for firearm offenses at only about&#160;one-twelfth [23]&#160;the rate that police are convicted of firearm related crimes. This is the typical anti-gun playbook. They treat unlawful gun carriers and permit holders as the exact same, even while pretending they understand the difference. In their mind, the paranoia they accuse us of takes hold and rather than differentiate between good guys and bad guys, they see us all as bad guys in waiting.. They claim to be able to tell the difference, but this is a case of “deeds not words” applying. Their deeds tell a different story. Permit holders are the most law-abiding people in the country. That’s been shown by years of data, also. It’s not some flash in the pan, but a trend that dates back a ways, likely to the day the first carry permit was issued. People who care about getting permits or constitutional carry laws aren’t the criminals. The bad guys have carried without permits for decades, and would continue to do so no matter what laws are in place. They don’t care about state lines, either. “This legislation is a dramatic infringement on states’ rights,”&#160;claimed [24]&#160;Emma Brown, executive director of the gun-control group Giffords, echoing a common criticism. Yet those same organizations routinely advocate federal gun-control laws that override state policy choices. What we need to understand about people like Brown here is that states’ rights only matter when it comes to gun restrictions. As Lott correctly notes, they routinely advocate for&#160;federal gun control [25], which is also a “dramatic infringement on states’ rights.”&#160; It’s like their calls for local control while opposing&#160;Second Amendment sanctuary communities [26]. They don’t want local control; they simply want things to be as difficult for gun owners as humanly possible. That includes the whole mess of reciprocity as it stands, versus national reciprocity. Opponents also claimed that national reciprocity would confuse travelers about which gun laws apply in each state and lead to more arrests. But reciprocity already exists across much of the country, and&#160;no evidence [27]&#160;shows that out-of-state permit holders create such problems. Indeed, the same situation exists for drivers when they cross state lines: They are required to follow the driving regulations for the state they are in. They’re required to follow all the&#160;laws of the state [28]&#160;they’re in, and it’s not an issue. But if it were, would it somehow be better if permit holders were somehow legally barred from carrying in particular states because of some quirk of how reciprocity works? I mean, if permit holders can’t be trusted to look at the laws of where they’re going, how would they know if their permits will be recognized in a different state under the current rules? In fact, the lack of any significant issues is, alone, proof that their fears and outrage are nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction to the concept of them losing ground. As Lott noted previously, all of their arguments are based on hypotheticals rather than anything concrete because nothing concrete supports the arguments. They have to use hypotheticals because it’s all they have. There’s no threat to anyone with national reciprocity…except to anti-gunners who fear yet another example of our&#160;gun rights [29]&#160;making us safer. Tom Knighton, “Why We Need National Reciprocity, At a Minimum,” Bearing Arms, July 6, 2026. [30]
  
we’ve also&#160;seen a profound bias in AI [31]&#160;when it comes to gun control. But that study about bias came from&#160;John Lott’s Crime Prevention Research Center [32], which gets dismissed by the mainstream media because Lott doesn’t toe the anti-gun line. In their minds, that means it doesn’t count. . . . Tom Knighton, “Oxford Study Finds Leftist Bias in AI,” Bearing Arms, July 6 2026. [33]
 Screenshot  “Concealed Handgun Permit Holders Remain Among America’s Most Law-Abiding Citizens,” Montgomery County, July 2026. [34] 

[1] https://www.concordmonitor.com/2026/07/09/my-turn-embracing-freedom-second-amendment/
[2] https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2026/07/09/mythbuster_us_much_safer_than_many_peer_nations_1193400.html
[3] https://patriotpost.us/articles/129008-appeals-court-tramples-the-second-amendment-upholding-assault-weapons-ban-2026-07-10
[4] https://www.dailyjournal.com/articles/392761-the-2nd-amendment-meets-the-front-door-of-private-property
[5] https://www.spectator.com.au/2026/06/the-shocking-truth-about-australian-crime-rates/
[6] https://www.americanrifleman.org/content/meet-an-australian-visiting-america-to-warn-us/
[7] https://crimeresearch.org/
[8] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/National-Topline-CPRC-05-19-26.pdf
[9] https://crimeresearch.org/2024/12/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-comparing-constitutional-carry-states-right-to-carry-states-and-the-seven-may-issue-states-before-bruen/
[10] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/concealed-carry-permit-numbers-gun-sales-remain-solid-in-2024/
[11] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/new-poll-shows-gun-rights-gaining-support/
[12] https://crimeresearch.org/2022/08/uber-driver-in-chicago-stops-mass-public-shooting/
[13] https://blog.joehuffman.org/2026/07/01/trust-the-science-2/
[14] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5882802
[15] https://www.nraila.org/articles/20260629/president-trump-reiterates-support-for-national-right-to-carry-reciprocity-and-nra
[16] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/06/02/why-national-reciprocity-at-a-minimum-is-needed-here-and-now-n1232712
[17] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/07/04/crossing_a_state_line_shouldnt_cost_you_your_right_to_self-defense_154301.html
[18] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5040077
[19] https://www.usconcealedcarry.com/resources/ccw_reciprocity_map
[20] https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/leosa-reform-bill-text.pdf
[21] https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRPT-119hrpt81/pdf/CRPT-119hrpt81.pdf
[22] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5040077
[23] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5040077
[24] https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nra-expert-why-bills-being-advanced-congress-crucial-law-abiding-gun-owners
[25] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/07/03/when-anti-gunners-reach-for-anything-to-attack-gun-rights-n1233068
[26] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/05/19/the-long-history-of-sanctuary-cities-and-why-2a-sanctuaries-matter-n1232578
[27] https://www.amazon.com/More-Guns-Less-Crime-Understanding/dp/1707911975/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2PYQ4HPEPWQN0&#38;keywords=more+guns+less+crime&#38;qid=1636267088&#38;sprefix=More+Guns+L%2Caps%2C238&#38;sr=8-1
[28] https://bearingarms.com/camedwards/2026/04/16/two-more-2a-cases-make-their-supreme-court-conference-debut-tomorrow-n1232251
[29] https://bearingarms.com/tags/gun-rights
[30] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/07/06/why-we-need-national-reciprocity-at-a-minimum-n1233085
[31] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/02/12/study-argues-ai-chatbots-have-anti-gun-bias-theres-a-reason-for-that-n1231538
[32] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/04/08/social-sciences-garbage-gun-research-and-the-replication-crisis-n1232148
[33] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/07/06/oxford-study-finds-leftist-bias-in-ai-n1233086
[34] https://assets.montgomerycountymd.gov/files/2026-06/item-11-testimony8-AlvinScott.pdf]]></content:encoded>
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