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<title>NAMELY LIBERTY</title>
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<description>News for those who treasure Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.</description>
<lastBuildDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 04:58:19 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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        <title>Government Accountability Shop - Your support keeps NAMELY LIBERTY 100% independent!</title>
        <link>https://namelyliberty.com/shop/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
        <pubDate>Sat, 29 Aug 2026 11:19:38 +0000</pubDate>
        <dc:creator>2ndfor1st</dc:creator>
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        <description>
        <![CDATA[ “When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.” ]]>
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        <content:encoded>
        <![CDATA[ “When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.” ]]>
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<item>
	<title>Survey: Most Likely Voters Say the Government Failed to Stop Election Cheating and Expect Widespread Cheating This Fall by Almost 2-to-1</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/survey-most-likely-voters-say-the-government-failed-to-stop-election-cheating-and-expect-widespread-cheating-this-fall-by-almost-2-to-1/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 04:58:19 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66724</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of 1,094 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 10-12, 2026 finds that just 34% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the government has done enough in recent years to prevent election cheating, while 52% say it has not. Another 14% aren’t sure. The partisan and educational [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of 1,094 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 10-12, 2026 finds that just 34% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the government has done enough in recent years to prevent election cheating, while 52% say it has not. Another 14% aren’t sure. The partisan and educational divide is very large. While 45% of Democrats believe the government has done enough in recent years to prevent election cheating, only 25% of Republicans and 30% of unaffiliated voters agree. A plurality of liberals and those with a graduate school education also believe that the government has done enough to stop cheating in the elections.  Screenshot A similar divide also exists for whether people expect cheating this fall, with likely voters expecting it by a 60%-to-32% margin. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans expect widespread cheating to affect the outcome of this fall’s congressional elections, as do 50% of Democrats and 57% of unaffiliated voters. Screenshot Now even Democrats and those with a graduate school education expect widespread cheating this fall, and only liberals don’t (by a 52%-to-41% margin). Screenshot 
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	<title>Just 15 House Democrats were willing to sign a letter saying that “We want safety, not lawlessness”</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/just-15-house-democrats-were-willing-to-sign-a-letter-saying-that-we-want-safety-not-lawlessness/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 23:43:17 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66711</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[“We want safety, not lawlessness. We believe Americans deserve secure borders, safe communities, honest government, and an orderly immigration system that protects the country, strengthens the economy, and treats people with dignity. We believe America remains indispensable to global stability, democratic values, international security, and strong alliances. In a dangerous and uncertain world, America must [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[
“We want safety, not lawlessness. We believe Americans deserve secure borders, safe communities, honest government, and an orderly immigration system that protects the country, strengthens the economy, and treats people with dignity. We believe America remains indispensable to global stability, democratic values, international security, and strong alliances. In a dangerous and uncertain world, America must lead with strength, purpose, and partnership.” “Promise to America,” June 26, 2026. [1]
 We previously highlighted the growing number of Democrat politicians calling for defunding the police, abolishing prisons, abolishing ICE, and abolishing national borders [2]. In an open letter, 15 Democrat congressmen declared [3]: “We are capitalist, not socialist,” “We want safety, not lawlessness,” “We are responsible, not reckless,” “We believe government should solve problems, not create them,” “We are mainstream, not extreme,” and “We are proud, not ashamed of America.” Taken together, however, the vast majority of Democrats rejected these statements as too controversial. We find the stand “We want safety, not lawlessness” relevant to the work we do here. 
Organizers of the letter, which had been released earlier this month, unveiled the first 15 signatories on Thursday — two days after primary results that put&#160;democratic socialists on track to double their ranks [4]&#160;in the House. “Politics forces false choices between extremes on right and left,” the letter said. “We reject them.” The letter is led by Representative Tom Suozzi, a New York Democrat who flipped a swing&#160;district on Long Island two years ago [5].&#160;. . . . Tim Balk, “Centrist Democrats Rebuke Party’s Left Wing: ‘We Are Capitalist, Not Socialist’,” New York Times, June 26, 2026 [6]
 

[1] https://www.thepromisetoamerica.com
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/democrats-join-growing-calls-to-abolish-ice-many-democrats-also-call-for-defunding-the-police/
[3] https://www.thepromisetoamerica.com
[4] https://archive.is/o/wweWA/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/24/nyregion/mamdani-politics-influence.html
[5] https://archive.is/o/wweWA/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/nyregion/pilip-suozzi-santos-election.html
[6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/us/politics/moderate-democrats-capitalist-socialism.html]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Talk in Argentina: Making People Safer</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/talk-in-argentina-making-people-safer/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:11:01 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66679</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Here is the audio and PowerPoint for Dr. John Lott’s recent talk in Buenos Aires, Argentina on August 13th. This talk has Lott speaking in English followed by a translator speaking in Spanish. The video in the presentation is available here.]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Here is the audio and PowerPoint for Dr. John Lott’s recent talk in Buenos Aires, Argentina on August 13th. This talk has Lott speaking in English followed by a translator speaking in Spanish. available here [1]. 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/04/elon-musks-retweet-of-our-video-on-fbi-data-errors-gets-36-million-impressions/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>CPRC in the News: San Francisco Weekly, The Washington Stand, Open to Debate, Bearing Arms, Ammoland, Reason, and more</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/cprc-in-the-news-san-francisco-weekly-the-washington-stand-open-to-debate-bearing-arms-ammoland-reason-and-more/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:56:39 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66407</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Screenshot John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former senior advisor for Research and Statistics in the U.S. Department of Justice, told The Washington Stand that if the trend continues, the country will experience the lowest ever murder rate it’s ever seen under President Donald Trump. “That would bring the murder rate [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Screenshot 
John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former senior advisor for Research and Statistics in the U.S. Department of Justice, told The Washington Stand that if the trend continues, the country will experience the lowest ever murder rate it’s ever seen under President Donald Trump. “That would bring the murder rate down to about 3.3 per 100,000. The lowest previous [rate] before the Trump administration was 4.5,” Lott said. . . . Quin Delamater, “Crime, homicide rates continue to drop during President Trump’s second term,” SF Weekly, August 13, 2026. [1]
  
John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former senior advisor for Research and Statistics in the U.S. Department of Justice, told The Washington Stand that if the trend continues, the country will experience the lowest ever murder rate it’s ever seen under President Donald Trump. “That would bring the murder rate down to about 3.3 per 100,000. The lowest previous [rate] before the Trump administration was 4.5,” Lott said. Major cities such as Washington D.C. and Philadelphia have both seen crime rates lowered.&#160; Homicides in D.C. are down 43.9% from the first half of 2025, while homicides in Memphis lowered 43.7%, killings are down 38.3% in Houston, and down 27.2% in Philadelphia. Additionally, homicides in Newark fell 64.7%, while murders in Raleigh fell 63.6% as well. “If you want to reduce crime, you have to make it risky for three months to go and commit crime. That means higher arrest rates, higher conviction rates, longer prison sentences,” Lott noted.&#160; . . . Quinn Delamater, “Crime, Homicide Rates Continue to Drop During President Trump’s Second Term,” The Washington Stand, August 12, 2026. [2]
 Screenshot 
A new report from the Crime Prevention Research Center tries to cut through the politics by digging into the FBI’s latest homicide data. The findings cover where murders happen, who commits them, who the victims are, and how often murders cross racial lines. Some of the numbers may surprise you. One of the biggest takeaways is just how concentrated murder is in the United States. As we discussed earlier this week, the worst 1% of counties account for 41% of all murders while containing only about 20% of the country’s population. Expand that to the worst 2% of counties, and they account for 54% of murders despite making up just 30% of the population. On the flip side, most counties rarely see a homicide at all. More than half of U.S. counties—53%—recorded zero murders in 2024. Another 16% had just one. Together, those counties make up 69% of all counties in America but account for only 3% of the nation’s murders. The report also looks at who is committing those murders. According to the FBI data analyzed by the CPRC, Black offenders accounted for 56.4% of known murderers in 2024. Lott notes the FBI’s race data combines Hispanic and non-Hispanic White offenders into a single “White” category. He argues likely under-states the number of Hispanic offenders because ethnicity isn’t reported consistently across jurisdictions. This infographic summarizes key findings from a Crime Prevention Research Center analysis of FBI homicide data, including offender demographics, age distribution, and how each group’s share of known murderers compares with its share of the U.S. population. The ratio is meant to answer one simple question: Is this group represented among known murderers more or less often than its share of the population? If every demographic group committed murders strictly in proportion to its share of the population, everyone would score 1.0. Instead, the CPRC found one group stood far apart from the rest. Black males registered 8.3, White males were 1.2, and every other demographic group came in below 1.0. . . . “When people talk about violent crime in America, there’s no shortage of opinions,” The Eillis County Press (Ferris, Texas), August 7, 2026.  [3]
  
. . . We’re hitting record lows for violent crime. We’re safer than we’ve probably ever been in this country, and this is despite a lot of reasons why we probably shouldn’t be. Income disparity, racial tension, political upheaval, and anti-police animosity all would seem to create a recipe for violence, and while it has to some extent, it’s not spilling over into people’s everyday lives. As&#160;Cam noted earlier this week [4], some are expecting the drop to be even greater for&#160;2026 [5]. In addition to what I noted above, something else to consider is that&#160;anti-gunners [6]&#160;claimed that the Bruen decision would put more guns on the streets and that would lead to more violent confrontations.&#160; Well…they were half right [7]. John Lott, head of the&#160;Crime Prevention Research Center [8], is one of the best people I know for pointing out interesting, important facts discovered through polling of American citizens. The original discoverer of the fact that more guns in lawful American hands leads to less crime, Lott has now reported on a few interesting — and in my mind, very important — nuggets from a recent CPRC poll conducted by McLaughlin &#38; Associates. . . . “In the survey, 15.7% carry all/most of the time, with another 15.2% carrying sometimes/rarely,”&#160;Lott reported [9]. “The percent who carry all or most of the time increased from 13.0% in December 2024 to 13.2% in May 2026 to 15.7% in July 2026. But total percent who carry increased from 24.3% in December 2024 to 29.8% in May 2026 to 30.9% in July 2026. So, the total who are carrying increased by 5.5 percentage points (from 24.3% to 29.8%).” . . . So yeah, it looks like the Bruen decision put more guns on the streets. However, as the violent crime rate is historically low, it’s pretty clear the rest of their prediction was nonsense. It’s not a case of the rates being low in spite of the&#160;increase in concealed carry [10], either. It’s because of it. . . . Tom Knighton, “You Can’t Tell Us This Doesn’t Have Positive Impact on Violent Crime Rate,” Bearing Arms, August 16, 2026. [11]
  
Research done at [12]&#160;the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) and published in July of 2026 shows the percentage and number of people carrying concealed handguns continues to increase. A&#160;survey of 1000 [13]&#160;people conducted by McLaughlin&#160; &#38; Associates on July 22, 2026 shows significant increases in the carrying of concealed handguns. In the last 19 months, from December of 2024 to July of 2026, the percentage of likely voters who carried all or most of the time increased from 13% to 15.7%, an increase of 2.7% of the sample. Those who carry sometimes/rarely increased from 11% to 15.2% or 4.2% of the sample. . . .  Dean Weingarten, “Nearly 1 in 3 Voters Say They Carry a Concealed Handgun, Survey Finds,” Ammoland, August 10, 2026. [14]
 Screenshot 
John Lott, head of the&#160;Crime Prevention Research Center [8], is one of the best people I know for pointing out interesting, important facts discovered through polling of American citizens. The original discoverer of the fact that more guns in lawful American hands leads to less crime, Lott has now reported on a few interesting — and in my mind, very important — nuggets from a recent CPRC poll conducted by McLaughlin &#38; Associates. The CPRC hired McLaughlin &#38; Associates to survey 1,000 general election voters on July 22, 2026 (with the&#160;full topline results [16]&#160;and&#160;detailed cross tabs [17]&#160;available for readers who want to dig into the raw numbers). The survey builds on prior CPRC surveys conducted in December 2024 and May 2026, allowing the CPRC to track carry rate changes over a 19-month period. “In the survey, 15.7% carry all/most of the time, with another 15.2% carrying sometimes/rarely,”&#160;Lott reported [9]. “The percent who carry all or most of the time increased from 13.0% in December 2024 to 13.2% in May 2026 to 15.7% in July 2026. But total percent who carry increased from 24.3% in December 2024 to 29.8% in May 2026 to 30.9% in July 2026. So, the total who are carrying increased by 5.5 percentage points (from 24.3% to 29.8%).” It might interest those who look at you like you’re crazy to carry a gun that nearly one-third of the respondents in the poll carry at least occasionally. One-third of the population represents a massive number of Americans, a sure sign that concealed carry is now mainstream, not on the fringe, as most in the gun-ban movement proclaim. This continues&#160;the long-term growth trend CPRC has documented in concealed carry permits [19], with 21.46 million active CCW permit holders as of 2024 — a figure that doesn’t even include those carrying under constitutional carry in the 29 states that allow permitless carry. . . . Mark Chesnut, “Study: Nearly One-Third Of General Election Voters Say They Carry A Concealed Firearm,” The Truth About Guns, August 13, 2026. [20]
  
All the training in the world won’t do much good, though, if you’re unarmed when somebody decides that it’s a good day to go out in a blaze of infamy. That’s why the roughly 30 percent of the population carrying firearms for self-defense is a nice start, but not the final word. It breaks down, according to the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), into 13.2 percent who “carry all/most of the time” and 16.6 percent “carrying sometimes/rarely.” Those who carry intermittently will be able to respond when they are exercising their self-defense rights, but they’ll be as unprepared as those who never carry if an attack occurs on a day when they leave their guns at home. . . . J.D. Tuccille, “Twin Falls Shooting Underlines the Need for Taking Self-Defense Seriously,” Reason, August 7, 2026. [21]
 Screenshot 
The Crime Prevention Research Center documented that armed citizens stopped 157 active shooter incidents between 2014 and 2022 – more than ten times what the FBI officially acknowledged.&#160; The FBI reported 14. . . . “An Armed Idaho Man Said Something to the Gunman That Democrats Never Want You to Hear,” Deplorable Daily, August 5, 2026. [22]
  
New research by John R. Lott, the head of the Crime Prevention Research Center&#160;indicates [23]&#160;that&#160;“the worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 46% of the population and account for 71% of murders. But even within those counties the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas within those counties.” In fact, it may come as a surprise that 53% of US counties experience zero murders in a typical year, while another 16% record only one murder. Taken as a whole, these 69% of counties account for a mere 3% of all murders nationwide. Furthermore, the 31 counties with the highest murder rates –&#160;just 1% of all US counties&#160;– contain about 20% of the nation’s population but account for 41% of all murders. Expanding the analysis to the 63 highest-rate counties (2% of counties) captures 30% of the population but 54% of all murders. . . . Robert Bridge, “America’s murder crisis not as hopeless as many believe,” RT, August 5, 2026. [24]
 Screenshot 
New research by John R. Lott, the head of the Crime Prevention Research Centre, indicates that “the worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 46% of the population and account for 71% of murders. But even within those counties, the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas within those counties.” In fact, it may come as a surprise that 53% of US counties experience zero murders in a typical year, while another 16% record only one murder. Taken as a whole, these 69% of counties account for a mere 3% of all murders nationwide. Furthermore, the 31 counties with the highest murder rates – just 1% of all US counties – contain about 20% of the nation’s population but account for 41% of all murders. Expanding the analysis to the 63 highest-rate counties (2% of counties) captures 30% of the population but 54% of all murders. . . . Robert Bridge, “America’s murder crisis isn’t as hopeless as many believe,” KHMER Times, August 18, 2026. [25]
 Screenshot 
Krugman and the Politics of Falling Crime [26] John R. Lott &#124; August 11, 2026 Watch John debate whether guns reduce crime [27] Staff, “This Week: Death is the End… Or Is It?” Open to Debate, August 16, 2026. [28]
 

[1] https://www.sfweekly.com/news/state/crime-homicide-rates-continue-to-drop-during-president-trump-s-second-term/article_9ce9becf-5420-5bcd-aafb-2d7b375b5743.html
[2] https://washingtonstand.com/article/-crime-homicide-rates-continue-to-drop-during-president-trumps-second-term
[3] https://www.elliscountypress.com/news/when-people-talk-about-violent-crime-america-theres-no-shortage-opinions
[4] https://bearingarms.com/camedwards/2026/08/11/crime-analyst-offers-incredible-prediction-about-us-murder-rate-n1233478
[5] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/06/03/anti-gun-states-are-wrong-to-make-concealed-carry-difficult-and-heres-why-n1232728
[6] https://bearingarms.com/camedwards/2026/06/01/anti-gun-media-does-some-myth-making-about-bidens-zero-tolerance-policy-for-gun-dealers-n1232702
[7] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/nearly-one-third-americans-carry-concealed-handgun/?utm_source=google&#38;utm_medium=organic
[8] https://crimeresearch.org/
[9] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-percent-of-americans-carrying-continues-to-increase-from-24-3-in-december-2024-to-29-8-in-may-2026-to-30-9-in-july-2026/
[10] https://bearingarms.com/tags/concealed-carry
[11] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/08/16/you-cant-tell-us-this-doesnt-have-positive-impact-on-violent-crime-rate-n1233517
[12] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-percent-of-americans-carrying-continues-to-increase-from-24-3-in-december-2024-to-29-8-in-may-2026-to-30-9-in-july-2026/
[13] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-Topline-CPRC-07-22-26.pdf
[14] https://www.ammoland.com/2026/08/concealed-carry-survey-voters-2026/
[15] https://crimeresearch.org/
[16] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-Topline-CPRC-07-22-26.pdf
[17] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-X-Tabs-CPRC-07-22-26.pdf
[18] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-percent-of-americans-carrying-continues-to-increase-from-24-3-in-december-2024-to-29-8-in-may-2026-to-30-9-in-july-2026/
[19] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/concealed-carry-permit-numbers-gun-sales-remain-solid-in-2024/
[20] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/nearly-one-third-americans-carry-concealed-handgun/?utm_source=google&#38;utm_medium=organic
[21] https://reason.com/2026/08/07/twin-falls-shooting-underlines-the-need-for-taking-self-defense-seriously/
[22] https://deplorabledaily.com/an-armed-idaho-man-said-something-to-the-gunman-that-democrats-never-want-you-to-hear/
[23] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6971902
[24] https://www.rt.com/news/643879-us-gun-murder-crisis/amp/
[25] https://www.khmertimeskh.com/502007932/americas-murder-crisis-isnt-as-hopeless-as-many-believe/
[26] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/08/11/krugman_and_the_politics_of_falling_crime_154405.html
[27] https://opentodebate.substack.com/p/guns-reduce-crime
[28] https://opentodebate.substack.com/p/this-week-death-is-the-end-or-is]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>At Real Clear Politics: Krugman and the Politics of Falling Crime</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/at-real-clear-politics-krugman-and-the-politics-of-falling-crime/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 17:27:52 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66597</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[. Paul Krugman remains one of the left’s most influential voices. In his&#160;latest column, he argues that President Trump avoids taking credit for the drop in murders because Trump’s ultimate goal is cruelty rather than public safety. Krugman contends that Trump’s policies have made crime worse than it otherwise would have been. But if Trump’s [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[.
Paul Krugman remains one of the left’s most influential voices. In his&#160;latest column [1], he argues that President Trump avoids taking credit for the drop in murders because Trump’s ultimate goal is cruelty rather than public safety. Krugman contends that Trump’s policies have made crime worse than it otherwise would have been. But if Trump’s policies truly reflect “cruelty,” how should we account for the lives they may have saved – particularly the lives of black Americans, who suffer a disproportionate share of murder victimization? . His column illustrates how people on the political left are trying to explain away the truly record-low crime rates under President Trump. . Krugman claims Trump “won’t mention” the good news about plunging crime rates. In fact, Trump has repeatedly highlighted the decline. During this year’s State of the Union address, he&#160;declared [2]: “In the last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history. This is the biggest decline, think of it, in recorded history, the lowest number in over 125 years, since 1900.” He has repeated that claim in speeches,&#160;social media posts [3], and televised&#160;Cabinet meetings [4]. FBI Director Kash Patel and other administration officials have likewise&#160;credited [5]&#160;the administration’s policies after the Council on Criminal Justice reported historically low homicide levels. . Krugman writes that murders are “approaching lows not seen since the 1960s in a number of big cities.” The national numbers tell an even more remarkable story. Since national recordkeeping began in 1900, the previous record-low murder rate was approximately 4.5 per 100,000 people. The rate stood at about 5.0 per 100,000 in 2024, but fell to&#160;just under 4.0 in 2025 [6], and, if the Council on Criminal Justice’s&#160;reported 18% decline [7]&#160;in murders across the nation’s 30 largest cities during the first half of 2026 reflects the national trend, the U.S. murder rate will fall to roughly 3.25 per 100,000 this year – the lowest rate ever recorded. . Reducing crime is not complicated. Governments reduce crime by increasing the certainty of arrest and conviction, imposing meaningful prison sentences, and allowing law-abiding citizens to defend themselves. Recent developments have moved in all three directions. . The FBI dramatically increased enforcement in 2025. FBI arrests&#160;rose 184% [8]&#160;over 2024 levels, while total FBI arrests – including many joint operations with state and local agencies –&#160;increased 197%. [9] . Voters also replaced several George Soros-backed prosecutors in jurisdictions such as Los Angeles and San Francisco with district attorneys who prosecute criminals more aggressively and seek tougher sentences. Across the country, President Trump’s U.S. attorneys have likewise pursued violent offenders far more aggressively than their predecessors. In Washington, D.C., for example, the Biden administration’s U.S.&#160;attorney declined to prosecute 67% of those arrested [10]. Under U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, that figure has fallen&#160;to just 4% [11]. . The decline in crime has also coincided with increased immigration enforcement. During the Trump administration,&#160;approximately 70% of deported illegal immigrants had either criminal convictions or pending criminal charges [12]. Even those without criminal records understand that contact with law enforcement can lead to deportation, giving them a stronger incentive to avoid criminal activity. . It isn’t a coincidence that&#160;felony violent crime rates soared by a record 59% during the Biden administration; [13]&#160;we had a record influx of illegals coming into the country, and violent crime is plummeting now that the border is closed and illegals are being deported. During the Biden administration, at least&#160;12.8 million illegal aliens [14]&#160;either surrendered at the border, were apprehended after crossing illegally, or became known gotaways, but no one knows how many more millions of additional illegals entered without being detected. . More Americans are also carrying concealed handguns for protection. Surveys show that the share of general election voters who carry concealed handguns&#160;increased from 24.3% in December 2024 to 30.9% in July 2026 [15]. Hispanic and black voters are carrying at substantially higher rates than white voters. Among those who carry all or most of the time,&#160;Hispanics and blacks are 2.6 times more likely than whites to do so [16]. That pattern matters because if you are going to reduce violent crime, you must ensure that the most likely victims can defend themselves. . Krugman instead attributes the decline in violent crime to the Biden administration’s American Rescue Plan. Yet decades of academic research find that economic factors such as welfare payments, poverty rates, and similar measures explain&#160;only a few percentage points of the variation in crime rates [17]. By contrast, studies consistently find that criminal justice variables – including arrest rates, conviction rates, sentence lengths, and the death penalty – account for over half of the variation. . Krugman ultimately argues that “the cruelty is the point” and that punishment serves no public-safety purpose (“Punishment isn’t a means to an end, a way to fight crime; it’s an end in itself”). According to Krugman, Trump cannot acknowledge falling crime because doing so would prevent him from continuing his policy of cruelty and inflicting pain. Whatever one thinks of the administration’s motives, the relevant question is whether its policies have reduced violent crime. If those policies have contributed to the historic decline in murders, then they have also saved lives – including many black lives, since black Americans accounted for&#160;almost half [18]&#160;of murder victims in 2024. John R. Lott, Jr., “Krugman and the Politics of Falling Crime,” Real Clear Politics, August 11, 2026. [19]


[1] https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-good-news-trump-wont-mention?utm_source=post-email-title&#38;publication_id=277517&#38;post_id=209956788&#38;utm_campaign=email-post-title&#38;isFreemail=false&#38;r=1imot&#38;triedRedirect=true&#38;utm_medium=email
[2] https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-transcript-state-of-union-2026-c13e2a07df999b464b733f4a6e84dbd4
[3] https://politifact.com/factchecks/2026/feb/12/donald-trump/murder-crime-rate-lowest-125-years-FBI/
[4] https://news.meaww.com/fact-check-is-trumps-claim-about-murder-rate-being-the-lowest-in-125-years-true?utm_source=chatgpt.com).
[5] https://time.com/7357500/crime-homicide-rate-violent-property-decline-trump-covid-19/
[6] https://counciloncj.org/whats-driving-the-drop-in-homicide-how-low-might-it-go/
[7] https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-mid-year-2026-update/
[8] https://www.fbi.gov/
[9] https://www.facebook.com/reel/773355865803074
[10] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jun/25/us-attorney-jeanine-pirro-fixing-dcs-broken-prosecution-record/
[11] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jun/25/us-attorney-jeanine-pirro-fixing-dcs-broken-prosecution-record/
[12] https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/01/20/dhs-recaps-worst-worst-criminal-illegal-aliens-ice-took-enforcement-action-during
[13] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/10/final-data-through-2024-shows-that-violent-crime-increased-even-more-during-biden-administration/
[14] https://homeland.house.gov/2024/10/24/startling-stats-factsheet-fiscal-year-2024-ends-with-nearly-3-million-inadmissible-encounters-10-8-million-total-encounters-since-fy2021/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[15] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-percent-of-americans-carrying-continues-to-increase-from-24-3-in-december-2024-to-29-8-in-may-2026-to-30-9-in-july-2026/
[16] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-percent-of-americans-carrying-continues-to-increase-from-24-3-in-december-2024-to-29-8-in-may-2026-to-30-9-in-july-2026/
[17] https://www.amazon.com/More-Guns-Less-Crime-Understanding/dp/1707911975/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2PYQ4HPEPWQN0&#38;keywords=more+guns+less+crime&#38;qid=1636267088&#38;sprefix=More+Guns+L%2Caps%2C238&#38;sr=8-1
[18] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/a-deep-dive-into-murders-who-murders-whom/
[19] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/08/11/krugman_and_the_politics_of_falling_crime_154405.html]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Argentina is a much more dangerous country than the United States. Total violent crime in Argentina is at least five time higher than the US rate</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/argentina-is-a-much-more-dangerous-country-than-the-united-states-total-violent-crime-in-argentina-is-at-least-five-time-higher-than-the-us-rate/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 13:44:59 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66569</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Comparisons of crime rates across countries often focus on homicides or murders. In 2025, the U.S. murder rate will be about&#160;4 per 100,000 people—roughly 10% higher than Argentina’s 2025 homicide rate of&#160;3.6 per 100,000. It looks like the U.S. murder rate for the first six months of this year has fallen even further, with an [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Comparisons of crime rates across countries often focus on homicides or murders. In 2025, the U.S. murder rate will be about&#160;4 per 100,000 people [1]—roughly 10% higher than Argentina’s 2025 homicide rate of&#160;3.6 per 100,000 [2]. It looks like the U.S. murder rate for the first six months of this year has fallen even further, with an annual rate for the 66 largest cities at about 3.3 per 100,000 [3], so it will actually be below the Argentinian rate. Argentina, like the United States, uses two measures of crime: crimes reported to the police and total crime. In the United States, the Bureau of Justice Statistics measures total crime through the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). In Argentina, there is the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (known in Spanish as Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, or INDEC) National Victimization Survey, though the last time it was conducted was in 2017 [4].&#160;We have previously done a similar comparison with Australia [5] and Canada [6]. Although the media and most public discussions focus on crimes reported to the police, victims report only a small share of violent crimes. This distinction becomes especially important when making international comparisons because reporting rates can vary dramatically across countries. For example, INDEC found that victims reported only 10% of rapes and sexual assaults in 2017. In 2017, the comparable reporting rate in the United States was&#160;40.4% [7]. In 2024,&#160;48.1% [8]&#160;of violent crimes in the US were reported to the police. Everything else being equal, the higher reporting rate in the United States would make its violent crime rate appear four times higher than Argentina’s in 2017 (40.4%/10%=4.04), even if both countries experienced exactly the same level of violent crime. The differences in total crime rates between the two countries are striking. Although the 2025 reported-crime data show a higher rape and sexual-assault rate in the United States, the 2017 victimization surveys paint a dramatically different picture. Argentina’s survey found a sexual-offense victimization rate of 1,700 per 100,000 adults, compared with 140 rape and sexual-assault victimizations per 100,000 people in the United States—a twelvefold difference. Even that comparison understates the difference because the Argentine survey counts&#160;victims, while the U.S. survey counts&#160;victimizations. If someone suffered two sexual assaults or two robberies, Argentina would count that person once, while the U.S. survey would count both incidents. The surveys also cover different age groups. Argentina surveyed adults age 18 and older, whereas the U.S. NCVS covers people age 12 and older. Consequently, a sexual assault of a 16-year-old would fall outside Argentina’s survey population but would be included in the U.S. survey. There is another problem that also makes the U.S. look relatively worse and that involves aggravated assaults. The U.S. data includes the threat of assault, particularly if it involves a weapon. Yet, despite these biases that make the U.S. look relatively worse than Argentina, the robbery rate in Argentina is still about 27 times worse, the aggravated assault rate is 38% worse, and the total violent crime rate is about five times higher. Screenshot 

[1] https://counciloncj.org/whats-driving-the-drop-in-homicide-how-low-might-it-go/
[2] https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/security-ministry-argentina-recorded-lowest-homicide-rate-on-record-in-2025.phtml
[3] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/08/major-cities-chiefs-association-reports-drops-in-all-violent-crime-categories-for-the-first-six-month-of-the-year-for-66-of-the-67-agencies-participated-in-the-survey-17-2-drop-in-reported-homic/
[4] https://biblioteca.indec.gob.ar/bases/minde/env_2017_02_18.pdf
[5] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/01/australians-are-dramatically-more-likely-to-be-victims-of-violent-crime-than-americans/
[6] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/06/canada-is-a-much-more-dangerous-country-than-the-united-states/
[7] https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv17.pdf
[8] https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv24.pdf]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>UPDATED: Despite Lula’s Campaign Promises, the Number of Licensed Firearm Owners in Brazil Increased by at least 18% Between 2022 and 2026, and total guns owned up slightly by 3.3%</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/updated-despite-lulas-campaign-promises-the-number-of-licensed-firearm-owners-in-brazil-increased-by-at-least-18-between-2022-and-2026-and-total-guns-owned-up-slightly-by-3-3/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:04:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=64768</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[UPDATE August 14, 2026: Include the new graph at the top. So there was a 86% increase in licensed firearm owners from 2017 to 2018. There was another 238% increase from 2018 to 2019. Between the year before Balsonaro took office in 2019 to his last year in office (2022) there was a 638% increase [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[UPDATE August 14, 2026: Include the new graph at the top. So there was a 86% increase in licensed firearm owners from 2017 to 2018. There was another 238% increase from 2018 to 2019. Between the year before Balsonaro took office in 2019 to his last year in office (2022) there was a 638% increase in licensed firearm owners. Whether one wants to attribute any of the drop in homicides to more people owning guns it is clear that there was no increase as so many were predicting [1]. UPDATE April 25, 2026: Data directly from the Federal Police shows a different set of numbers (Original Post below). The number of CAC licenses in Brazil increased from 867,472 in 2022 to 1,026,633 in 2026 [2] (see screenshots below), but those are internal government numbers that links aren’t available for. If those numbers are correct, that would imply a 18% increase. Yet, despite the reduction in the total number of guns that each person can have, the total number of registered guns increased from 2,862,948 in 2022 to 2,958,277 in 2026 — a 3.3% increase. During that same period the Brazil population increased by between 3.26 million (1.6%) and 10.5 million (5.2%) over the 203.08 million in 2022, so the increase in the number of people owning guns exceeds the grown in population by 3.5 to 11.5 times. Note hat in 2026, there were about 164 million adults in Brazil [3], so it is still less than one percent of the adult population. These numbers have a direct bearing on how gun ownership is related to changes in crime [4]. There has been growing problems with hidden homicides in recent years. In 2024, Brazil recorded 81,873 missing persons [5], with some cases suspected to involve murders where bodies are concealed, but only 44,127 homicide victims [6]. Some argue that&#160;declining homicide numbers could partly reflect bodies never being found or identified, especially with organized crime [7] tactics (clandestine graves, burning bodies). In the eight years from 2015 to 2022, the average number of missing people was 73,288 [8], but in the three years from 2023 to 2025 it averaged 82,817 (2023 [9], 2024 [10], and 2025 [11]) — a thirteen percent higher rate at the same time that the official homicide numbers have declined. Given that the average number of homicides between 2015 and 2022 was 51,700 and the average number in 2023 to 2025 was 37,700, the gap between missing people and homicides in Brazil for 2015 to 2022 was 21,588 and from 2023 to 2025 was 45,118 — that is a 109% increase in the size of the gap. Luciano Lara, a prosecutor in Brazil, provided a great deal of help in putting this together. He also pointed out to us that 91% of the murders in Brazil go unsolved. 2022  2026  ORIGINAL POST August 5, 2025: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva didn’t do quite what he promised [12]. Lula took office in January 2023 with the promise to radically change the gun control policies from Bolsonaro. While he reduced the number of new firearm licenses, so the growth rate in the number of licensed owners increased at a slower rate, it still increased. In 2022, there were 783,385 licensed firearm owners [13].&#160;Total active reached ~980,000 by mid-2025 [14]. But one thing that Lula did was reduce the number of guns that people could use for self-defense from four guns to two guns [15], though that change won’t prevent people from having a gun for self-defense. The CRAF licenses (Regular Civilian Owners (Posse for Defesa Pessoal)) last for 5 years. The CAC licenses (Caçadores / Atiradores / Colecionadores) for hunting (C açador), sports shooting (A tirador) and colecting (C olecionador) go from 3 to 10 years. All CAC owners have CRAFs (one per gun), but not all CRAF holders are CACs. So the number of licensed gun owners may start to decline in 2027 and 2028, but that hasn’t happened yet. Some terminology for the licensing rules in Brazil. CR – Certificate of Registration – a document obtained from the Army (now, since 2025, from the Federal Police) that allows a citizen to purchase firearms for Hunting, Sport Shooting, and Collecting activities.CAC – a citizen who, having a CR, registers the activities of Hunter and/or Sport Shooter and/or Collector under that CR. It may be one, some, or all of these, but all are commonly referred to as CACs.CRAF – Firearm Registration Certificate – the document registering the firearm in the owner’s name.SINARM – National Firearms System, under the responsibility of the Federal Police, where all firearms in Brazil have been registered since 2003.SIGMA – Military Firearms Management System, under the responsibility of the Army – where all restricted-use firearms in Brazil are registered, including those of security forces and CACs. 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2020/09/remember-all-the-experts-who-said-that-brazilian-president-jair-bolsonaros-to-relax-gun-control-would-lead-to-more-murder/
[2] https://dados.gov.br/dados/conjuntos-dados/sinarm---sistema-nacional-de-armas
[3] https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/brazil
[4] https://crimeresearch.org/2023/05/at-the-federalist-if-brazils-firearm-ban-is-so-great-why-wont-gun-control-activists-bet-on-it/
[5] https://interlira-reports.com/news/homicides-drop-but-violence-persists-in-brazil-2024/29/07/2025/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[6] https://interlira-reports.com/news/homicides-drop-but-violence-persists-in-brazil-2024/29/07/2025/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[7] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67ec0c649eae202448299b40/BRA%2BCPIN%2BOrganised%2BCriminal%2BGroups%2B_OCGs_.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[8] https://en.agendadopoder.com.br/Brazil-has-had-more-than-700-missing-persons-in-the-last-10-years--207-cases-per-day./?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[9] https://www.plenglish.com/news/2024/04/14/brazil-reported-225-missing-persons-a-day-in-2023/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[10] https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/direitos-humanos/noticia/2026-02/brazil-records-84700-missing-persons-2025-or-232-day?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[11] https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/direitos-humanos/noticia/2026-02/brazil-records-84700-missing-persons-2025-or-232-day?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[12] https://crimeresearch.org/2023/05/at-the-federalist-if-brazils-firearm-ban-is-so-great-why-wont-gun-control-activists-bet-on-it/
[13] https://fontesegura.forumseguranca.org.br/numero-de-armas-no-brasil-volta-a-crescer-em-2023-e-pf-tera-que-fiscalizar-ao-menos-48-milhoes-de-armas-de-fogo-a-partir-de-2025/
[14] https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2025/07/01/pf-assume-fiscalizacao-de-cacs-nesta-terca-pais-tem-15-milhao-de-armas-registradas.ghtml
[15] https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2023/07/21/governo-divulga-decreto-que-restringe-o-acesso-de-civis-a-armas-e-municoes-veja-novas-regras.ghtml]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>The Armed Citizen Podcast: Why America is experiencing a period of all-time low violent crime such as murder</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/featured/the-armed-citizen-podcast-why-america-is-experiencing-a-period-of-all-time-low-violent-crime-such-as-murder/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Thu, 13 Aug 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>Featured</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66321</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[[embedded content] John Lott is a noted economist who has studies crime in America, and specifically the correlation between crime and gun ownership. In this video with Frank Miniter of The Armed Citizen Podcast, Lott talks about why America is experiencing a period of all-time low violent crime such as murder. It’s no coincidence that [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[
[embedded content]
 
John Lott is a noted economist who has studies crime in America, and specifically the correlation between crime and gun ownership. In this video with Frank Miniter of The Armed Citizen Podcast, Lott talks about why America is experiencing a period of all-time low violent crime such as murder. It’s no coincidence that all-time high gun-ownership and aggressive prosecutions by the Trump administration—combined with border enforcement—have made a huge positive impact. Frank Miniter, “John Lott, author of “More Guns, Less Crime” on U.S. crime stats and how to lower crime,” The Armed Citizen Podcast, July 28, 2026.
 
]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>On Louisville’s Giant 50,000 Watt WHAS: Talking about our research on how heavily concentrated murders are in the US</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/on-louisvilles-giant-50000-watt-whas-talking-about-our-research-on-how-heavily-concentrated-murders-are-in-the-us/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66329</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott talked to Leland Conway about his new piece at Real Clear Politics titled “America’s Murder Problem Is Smaller Than It Looks,” which discusses how heavily concentrated murders are in the U.S. (Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 11:35 to 11:49 AM ET)]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott talked to Leland Conway about his new piece at Real Clear Politics titled “America’s Murder Problem Is Smaller Than It Looks [1],” which discusses how heavily concentrated murders are in the U.S.  (Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 11:35 to 11:49 AM ET) 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/at-real-clear-politics-americas-murder-problem-is-smaller-than-it-looks/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>On Cincinnati’s WLW: To Discuss the SAVE America Act</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/on-cincinnatis-wlw-to-discuss-the-save-america-act/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66272</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on the Cincinnati’s WLW with Bill Cunningham to discuss the SAVE America Act, election integrity, and voter fraud. See also Dr. Lott’s op-ed at Townhall titled “Why We Need the SAVE America Act.” (Monday, July 20, 2026)]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on the Cincinnati’s WLW with Bill Cunningham to discuss the SAVE America Act, election integrity, and voter fraud. See also Dr. Lott’s op-ed at Townhall titled “Why We Need the SAVE America Act [1].”  (Monday, July 20, 2026) 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/at-townhall-why-we-need-the-save-america-act/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Almost Twice as Many General Election Voters Prefer Arresting Repeat Violent Criminals Compared to Enforcing Current Gun Control Laws or Enacting More Gun Control Laws</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/almost-twice-as-many-general-election-voters-prefer-arresting-repeat-violent-criminals-compared-to-enforcing-current-gun-control-laws-or-enacting-more-gun-control-laws/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66279</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[The Crime Prevention Research Center commissioned a new McLaughlin &#38; Associates survey of 1,000 American general election voters on July 22nd, 2026 (cross tabs available here). Despite frequent claims that the public supports gun control as a way to reduce crime, only 24.9% of voters believe passing additional gun control laws would reduce crime, while [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[The Crime Prevention Research Center commissioned a new McLaughlin &#38; Associates survey of 1,000 American general election voters on July 22nd, 2026 [1] (cross tabs available here [2]). Despite frequent claims that the public supports gun control as a way to reduce crime, only 24.9% of voters believe passing additional gun control laws would reduce crime, while an even smaller share (22.6%) believe stricter enforcement of existing gun control laws would do so. Combined, just 47.5% of voters think gun control plays the primary role in reducing crime. By comparison, 44.2% believe the better approach is to arrest criminals and keep them in jail. Most public opinion surveys present a false choice by limiting respondents to two gun control options: passing additional gun control laws or enforcing existing ones more aggressively. That design makes it appear that the only ways to reduce crime involve gun control. Whether respondents favor new gun control laws or stricter enforcement of existing laws, both answers assume that gun control provides the primary solution. Our survey offered respondents another option—arresting criminals and keeping them in jail—and their responses changed dramatically. For example, a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted December 17–19, 2024 [3], asked the traditional question. In that survey, 56% preferred stricter enforcement of existing gun control laws and 31% favored passing additional gun control laws. Both percentages are substantially higher than in our survey, where respondents also had the option of prioritizing the arrest and incarceration of violent repeat offenders. Police resources are limited. When officers spend more time enforcing gun control laws, they inevitably have less time to identify, arrest, and help convict violent repeat offenders. The demographic patterns are also noteworthy. Men and women alike, as well as every age group, favor having police concentrate on arresting violent repeat criminals rather than emphasizing gun control. The same pattern holds across every racial group except Asians. Screenshot Only liberals and Democrats prioritize gun control over having police concentrate on arresting violent repeat criminals. They are the only groups that prefer either passing additional gun control laws or more strictly enforcing existing gun control laws to focusing police resources on repeat violent offenders. By contrast, every other ideological, affluence, and marital-status group favors having police concentrate on arresting violent repeat criminals. Screenshot Finally, ideological views strongly predict support for additional gun control.&#160;Very liberal general election voters&#160;express the strongest support, followed in order by&#160;somewhat liberal voters,&#160;moderates,&#160;somewhat conservative voters, and&#160;very conservative voters, who express the least support. Screenshot 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-Topline-CPRC-07-22-26.pdf
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/National-X-Tabs-CPRC-07-22-26.pdf
[3] https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/41_blame_mental_health_for_mass_shootings?utm_campaign=RR12242024DN&#38;utm_source=criticalimpact&#38;utm_medium=email]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>At The Federalist: Socialists’ Demands To Abolish Police And Prisons Will Mean More Dead Americans</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/at-the-federalist-socialists-demands-to-abolish-police-and-prisons-will-mean-more-dead-americans/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 13:54:45 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66470</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[. Democrats insist that “Black Lives Matter,” yet many increasingly embrace policies that protect violent criminals at the expense of black victims.&#160; . What these Democrats ignore is that criminals overwhelmingly prey on people like themselves. About&#160;90% of Black homicide victims are killed by other Blacks, and&#160;70% of Black violent crime victims are victimized by [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[.
Democrats insist that “Black Lives Matter,” yet many increasingly embrace policies that protect violent criminals at the expense of black victims.&#160; . What these Democrats ignore is that criminals overwhelmingly prey on people like themselves. About&#160;90% of Black homicide victims are killed by other Blacks [1], and&#160;70% of Black violent crime victims are victimized by Black offenders [2]. . Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Michigan, has&#160;argued [3]&#160;that systemic racism shapes the criminal justice system and has advocated defunding the police and reduced imprisonment.&#160;In tweets and interviews [4]&#160;in 2020 and 2021, he made comments such as, “I believe that we do need to defund the police.” “The police have become standing armies we deploy against our own people,” was among the thousands of his tweets he&#160;deleted [5].&#160; . Darializa Avila Chevalier, who won the Democratic nomination for Congress in New York City and appears likely to win the general election,&#160;campaigns on abolishing prisons [6]&#160;and&#160;would not even say that murderers belong in prison. When asked why he supported Chevalier, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani replied that she represented the “politics of life [7].” . Wisconsin State Rep. Francesca Hong, the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination for governor, declared,&#160;“I support defunding the police as a first step towards abolishing the police [8]” and “Police exist to uphold white supremacy. Defund then abolish. Reform can’t be an option [9].”&#160;On July 22, 2026, Hong&#160;added [10]: “We no longer can have a system that protects a power and a privilege that puts the pain and lives of armed officers over black people. We cannot protect a system that continues to rain harm and terror.” . These politicians are far from isolated. In 2024,&#160;61 House Democrats voted against [11]&#160;a resolution condemning calls to defund the police and expressing support for law enforcement. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) stated her position&#160;plainly [12]: “No more policing, incarceration, and militarization. It can’t be reformed.” . The number of politicians embracing those positions has continued to grow. “It’s not just a few people anymore,” as Bill Maher recently&#160;observed [13]&#160;on ABC News. “I read every day about a new person in Colorado or Wisconsin saying some variation of: not defund the police—abolish the police, no prisons, no police.” . Because violent crime is heavily concentrated in minority neighborhoods, reducing the likelihood that violent offenders are arrested, incarcerated, or deterred inevitably increases the risks faced by law-abiding black residents.&#160;Fifty-four percent of murders in the U.S. occur in just 2% of the counties [14], and within those counties, on average about 2/3rds of their murders occur within ten block areas. The harm in those areas goes well beyond the direct victims of the crime.&#160; . Despite claims that these policies speak for blacks, surveys consistently find that black Americans overwhelmingly want at least the same or greater police presence in neighborhoods with high crime. Even at the height of the Black Lives Matter movement in August 2020, a Gallup survey&#160;found [15]&#160;that&#160;81%&#160;of black Americans wanted police to spend&#160;the same amount of time (61%) or more time (20%)&#160;in their neighborhoods. Gallup noted that “Only 22% of black Americans favor abolishing police departments.” . A 2025 survey of Chicago residents by M3 Strategies&#160;indicated [16]&#160;that 59% of blacks strongly supported hiring more police officers and another 27% somewhat supported that. Only 11% opposed the idea. Still another&#160;late July 2026 survey by Rasmussen Reports [17]&#160;shows that&#160;&#160;blacks likely voters oppose proposals to abolish police by 58%-to-33%. . These Democrats at least have a consistent philosophy. They demand eliminating prisons, abolishing or defunding police, weakening immigration enforcement, and restricting law-abiding citizens’ ability to defend themselves. Mamdani has declared,&#160;“We need to ban all guns [18].”&#160;Hong&#160;earned [19]&#160;the endorsements of Michael Bloomberg’s gun-control organizations. Abdul El-Sayed, the leading Democratic candidate for Michigan’s U.S. Senate nomination,&#160;complains [20], “Too many elected officials are scared of a corporate gun lobby … I will never take a dime from the gun lobby,” and he supports virtually every major gun-control proposal now under debate. . The same pattern extends to immigration. The&#160;Chicago Sun-Times&#160;reported [21]&#160;that “an increasing number of established Democrats are calling for a dissolution of the federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.”&#160;More than 40 House Democrats [22]&#160;support legislation to abolish ICE. During the Biden administration, at least&#160;12.8 million illegal aliens [23]&#160;either surrendered at the border, were apprehended after crossing illegally, or became known gotaways, and no one knows how many additional migrants entered without being detected.&#160; . Recent data for New York shows that illegal aliens are overrepresented in the incarcerated population in the state compared to their overall share of the state population by&#160;at least 3.4 times [24]. Of course, illegals harm minorities in other ways. Increasing the supply of low-skilled workers also intensifies competition for the same jobs and puts downward pressure on wages for the poorest, least-skilled Americans whom these Democrats claim to champion. . While Democrats claim that “black lives matter,” their policies of defunding the police and getting rid of prisons means more people will die and be victims of crime, particularly blacks. If there are no real penalties for murdering people, there will be more murder. The common thread running through these policies is that they lower the costs of committing crime while making it harder for law-abiding Americans to protect themselves and their families. Democrats need to act as if black lives truly matter. John R. Lott, Jr., “Socialists’ Demands To Abolish Police And Prisons Will Mean More Dead Americans,” The Federalist, August 10, 2026. [25]


[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/a-deep-dive-into-murders-who-murders-whom/
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/07/with-the-attacks-in-cincinnati-what-is-the-rate-of-intraracial-violent-crime-blacks-committed-violent-crime-against-whites-9-2-times-more-than-the-reverse-blacks-committed-violent-crime-against-asi/
[3] https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/ebo/date/2025-11-10/segment/01?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[4] https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/07/politics/kfile-abdul-el-sayed-michigan-senate-defund-police-fact-check
[5] https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/michigan-democrat-deleted-tweets-about-defunding-the-police/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[6] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/07/the-next-congresswoman-for-nyc-calls-for-abolition-prisons-wont-say-murderers-should-go-to-prison/
[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqPB3aMK6VI
[8] https://x.com/FrancescaHongWI/status/1297931960124416001?s=20
[9] https://www.wkow.com/news/politics/defund-then-abolish-a-leading-democrat-in-wisconsin-governor-s-race-urged-abolishing-police/article_58989e94-8cdd-43c5-ab19-ad23bba1b322.html
[10] https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/crime/2026/07/22/madison-police-report-shooting-one-injured/91014742007/
[11] https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2024218
[12] https://justthenews.com/government/congress/tlaib-says-us-policing-intentionally-racist-cant-be-reformed
[13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVv_-jaBnZk
[14] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6971902
[15] https://news.gallup.com/poll/316571/black-americans-police-retain-local-presence.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[16] https://namelyliberty.com///Users/jlott/Library/Containers/com.apple.mail/Data/Library/Mail%20Downloads/B00E295F-F938-4D1E-AB4F-57505042A997/Only%2022%2525%20of%20Black%20Americans%20favor%20abolishing%20police%20departments
[17] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/08/new-survey-only-19-of-likely-voters-support-abolishing-prisons-only-27-support-abolishing-borders-and-giving-amnesty-to-all-illegal-aliens/
[18] https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani/status/1529223283647848448?s=20
[19] https://www.facebook.com/FrancescaHongWI/photos/june-is-gun-violence-awareness-month-and-this-is-wear-orange-weekend-a-time-to-r/1384959670110037/
[20] https://www.ontheissues.org/governor/Abdul_El-Sayed_Gun_Control.htm
[21] https://chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/2026/01/17/abolish-ice-movement-illinois-democrats-delia-ramirez-juliana-stratton-patty-garcia
[22] https://iaproject.org/accountability/legislation/119hr7346/#tabs
[23] https://homeland.house.gov/2024/10/24/startling-stats-factsheet-fiscal-year-2024-ends-with-nearly-3-million-inadmissible-encounters-10-8-million-total-encounters-since-fy2021/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[24] https://nypost.com/2025/12/28/opinion/new-data-reveals-horrific-truth-about-illegal-immigrant-crime/
[25] https://thefederalist.com/2026/08/10/socialists-demands-to-abolish-police-and-prisons-will-mean-more-dead-americans/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Major Cities Chiefs Association reports drops in all violent crime categories for the first six month of the year for 66 of the 67 agencies participated in the survey: 17.2% drop in reported homicides, a 6.2% drop in reported rapes, a 16.6% drop in reported robberies, and a 5.7% drop in reported aggravated assaults.</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/major-cities-chiefs-association-reports-drops-in-all-violent-crime-categories-for-the-first-six-month-of-the-year-for-66-of-the-67-agencies-participated-in-the-survey-17-2-drop-in-reported-homic/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Sun, 09 Aug 2026 05:52:37 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66453</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[A new report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) finds that reported violent crime declined across&#160;every category&#160;in the United States compared with 2025. The organization highlighted the broad&#160;decline&#160;as the first across-the-board drop since 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the 67 U.S. agencies included in the MCCA report, 66 participated in the midyear survey. [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[A new report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA [1]) finds that reported violent crime declined across&#160;every category [2]&#160;in the United States compared with 2025. The organization highlighted the broad&#160;decline [3]&#160;as the first across-the-board drop since 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the 67 U.S. agencies included in the MCCA report, 66 participated in the midyear survey. Their data showed a 17.2 percent drop in reported homicides, a 6.2 percent drop in reported rapes, a 16.6 percent drop in reported robberies, and a 5.7 percent drop in reported aggravated assaults. Several major cities recorded particularly sharp declines in reported homicides. Washington, D.C., reported 46 homicides during the first half of 2026, down from 82 during the same period in 2025. Raleigh, North Carolina, reported four homicides, down from 11, while Miami, Florida, reported eight, down from 16. Overall, participating agencies reported 449 fewer homicides in the first half of 2026 than during the same period in 2025. The Council on Criminal Justice earlier&#160;reported 18% decline [4]&#160;in murders across the nation’s 30 largest cities during the first half of 2026. The national numbers tell a remarkable story. Since national record keeping began in 1900, the previous record-low murder rate was about 4.5 per 100,000 people. The rate stood at about 5.0 per 100,000 in 2024, but fell to&#160;just under 4.0 in 2025 [5]. If these numbers from the MCCA and the Council on Criminal Justice reflect the national trend, the U.S. murder rate will fall to roughly 3.25 to 3.28 per 100,000 this year—the lowest rate ever recorded.&#160; 

[1] https://archive.is/o/Byd8A/https://lawenforcementtoday.com/wisconsin-police-chief-israel-trip-training-seminar
[2] https://archive.is/o/Byd8A/https://majorcitieschiefs.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/MCCA-Violent-Crime-Report-2026-and-2025-Midyear.pdf
[3] https://archive.is/o/Byd8A/https://lawenforcementtoday.com/done-the-crime-drop-everyones-claiming-credit-for-and-no-one-can-explain
[4] https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-mid-year-2026-update/
[5] https://counciloncj.org/whats-driving-the-drop-in-homicide-how-low-might-it-go/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>New York Times actually runs a positive story about the Citizen who used his gun to stop the mass public shooting at the In-N-Out Burger restaurant in Twin Falls, Idaho</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/new-york-times-actually-runs-a-positive-story-about-the-citizen-who-used-his-gun-to-stop-the-mass-public-shooting-at-the-in-n-out-burger-restaurant-in-twin-falls-idaho/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 21:28:39 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=66436</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Given how incredibly rare it is for the New York Times to give positive news coverage to a civilian who stopped a mass public shooting (and these occur all the time without getting news coverage), you have to give them credit when they do cover such a story. . Jordan Salinas did not notice the [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Given how incredibly rare it is for the New York Times to give positive news coverage to a civilian who stopped a mass public shooting (and these occur all the time without getting news coverage [1]), you have to give them credit when they do cover such a story..
Jordan Salinas did not notice the new sign on the counter at his favorite coffee shop until a barista pointed it out. Help show your support, the sign read, by contributing to a gift card for Mr. Salinas’s “bravery and selfless act during the recent tragic event.” Customers had already pooled $630, the barista noted. Mr. Salinas, 35, with long hair tucked under a cap and a pistol holstered on his hip, appeared to be taken aback. It didn’t feel right. The donations, the praise, the handshakes. All of it was to thank Mr. Salinas for something he wished had never happened. He pulled out his wallet and paid for his coffee. . . . Mr. Salinas had trained for this moment for years, studying videos of drills online in case he ever had to protect his brother and others from a potential mass shooting. He had been shooting guns for even longer — since he was in grade school, he said, if not before. Back then he shot at a broken television in the backyard. Over the years, he had drawn his gun only at targets. He had long wondered about how he would react to an active shooter. Now, he was looking down his sight at another man. He raised his handgun. . . . Mr. Salinas returned to parts of his daily life, too. He petted horses, watched YouTube videos and picked up coffee at his go-to cafe. He has struggled with what to say, what to feel and what to think about those who try to claim him as a member of their political tribe. Yes, he’s grateful for Idaho’s gun laws, which allow most people to carry a concealed gun without a license. And he hopes other people consider safely carrying a gun and learning how to respond to a similar attack. Mr. Salinas, who described himself as “pro-freedom,” said he cares about politics. But in that moment in the In-N-Out parking lot, politics was the last thing on his mind. . . . Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, “He Trained to Stop a Mass Shooting. When the Moment Came, He Was Ready,” New York Times, August 7, 2026. [2]


[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2023/06/uber-driver-in-chicago-stops-mass-public-shooting/
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/07/us/twin-falls-idaho-shooting.html?unlocked_article_code=1.3lA.ZSgh.3ceKK2w5RqGk&#38;smid=nytcore-ios-share]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>CPRC in the News: Concord Monitor, The Patriot Post, Daily Journal, American Rifleman, and more</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/cprc-in-the-news-concord-monitor-the-patriot-post-daily-journal-american-rifleman-and-more/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:22:44 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65814</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[A national survey commissioned by the Crime Prevention Research Center and conducted this year validates what Second Amendment advocates have long argued: the public rejects the gun control premise. When asked what would do the most to reduce violent crime, voters overwhelmingly favored holding criminals accountable over passing new restrictions. Thirty-one percent of respondents chose [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[ 
A national survey commissioned by the Crime Prevention Research Center and conducted this year validates what Second Amendment advocates have long argued: the public rejects the gun control premise. When asked what would do the most to reduce violent crime, voters overwhelmingly favored holding criminals accountable over passing new restrictions. Thirty-one percent of respondents chose enforcing existing laws as the best way to lower crime rates, while more than 30% favored arresting and prosecuting violent and repeat offenders. Only 30% supported passing new firearm-related legislation. Combined, enforcement-focused solutions outperformed new gun-control measures by more than 30 percentage points. The message from the American people to their legislators is remarkably simple: hold violent criminals accountable, stop treating law-abiding citizens like the problem, and trust ordinary people pursuing their own happiness. . . .Kate Giddins, “What becoming an American taught me about liberty,” Concord Monitor, July 9, 2026. [1]
  
Back to crime. Just yesterday, researcher John Lott&#160;published an article [2]&#160;doing what he does best: highlighting the real statistics about violent crime. “While the United States still leads in some categories,” he says, “on the whole it has significantly less violent crime per capita than [Australia and Canada].” He explains: . . .  Nate Jackson, “Appeals Court Tramples the Second Amendment, Upholding ‘Assault Weapons’ Ban,” Patriot Post, July 10, 2026. [3]
 Screenshot 
The number of concealed handgun permits has been growing exponentially. In 1999, there were 2.7 million concealed handgun permit holders in the U.S. There are now at least 21.8 million permits in the U.S. John R. Lott, Jr.,&#160;Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2023, . . .  William Slomanson, “The 2nd Amendment meets the front door of private property,” Daily Journal July 6, 2026. [4]
  
As John Lott, founder and president of the Crime Prevention Research Center,&#160;explained it [5]&#160;recently, both Australia and the United States use “large-scale surveys that estimate total crime, not just crimes reported to police. The Australian Bureau of Statistics runs such a survey annually. In the United States, the Bureau of Justice Statistics conducts the National Crime Victimization Survey, which surveys about 240,000 people each year. When we compare these broader estimates, Australia’s rape and sexual assault rate is roughly three times higher than that of the United States. Australia’s assault rate is about twice as high, and its burglary rate is about 2.5 times higher. Robbery is the only category where the two countries report similar rates.” . . .Frank Miniter, “Meet an Australian Visiting America to Warn Us,” American Rifleman, July 11, 2026. [6]
  
The&#160;Crime Prevention Research Center [7]&#160;(CPRC) recently partnered with the polling firm McLaughlin &#38; Associates, and&#160;their efforts [8]&#160;revealed that Americans are significantly more likely to support and exercise their Second Amendment rights now than they were just 18 months ago. At the same time, they are less likely to support increased gun control restrictions pushed by anti-gun activists. First, let’s look at the increase in practice. According to the responses, the percent of Americans carrying a firearm for self-defense jumped from 24.3 percent in December 2024 to 29.8 percent in May 2026. Breaking it down a little more, the poll report stated: “13.2% carry all/most of the time, with another 16.6% carrying sometimes/rarely. The percent who carry all or most the time is virtually the same as the percent who carried similarly in&#160;December 2024 [9]. But the percent who carry at least some of the time or rarely has increased by 5.4 percentage points (from 11.2% to 16.6%).” That’s a pretty significant increase. Especially considering anti-gun states continue to pass or defend in court new laws aimed at reducing the opportunity to legally carry. The trend tracks with&#160;the broader expansion of concealed carry licensing nationally [10], where there are now over 21.46 million adult permit-holders in the United States — with women, Asians, and African-Americans representing the fastest-growing demographic segments. . . .  Mark Chesnut, “Latest Poll: Concealed Carry Jumps Sharply As Support For More Gun Control Tumbles,” The Truth about Guns, July 1, 2026. [11]
  Evidence compiled by the&#160;Crime Prevention Research Center&#160;shows that the sources the media relied on undercounted the number of instances in which armed citizens have thwarted such attacks by&#160;an order of more than ten, saving untold numbers of lives. Of course, law-abiding citizens stopping these attacks&#160;are not rare [12]. What is rare is national news coverage of those incidents. Although those many news stories about the Greenwood shooting also suggested that the defensive use of guns might endanger others, there is no evidence that these acts have harmed innocent victims. “Trust the Science,” The View From North Central Idaho, July 1, 2026. [13]  
her, Right-to-Carry permit holders have proven themselves trustworthy. Examining permit revocation data for his annual&#160;“Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States” report [14], Economist John Lott determined, “Even given the low conviction rate for police, concealed carry permit holders are even more law-abiding than police.” . . . Staff, “PRESIDENT TRUMP REITERATES SUPPORT FOR NATIONAL RIGHT-TO-CARRY RECIPROCITY AND NRA,” NRA-ILA, June 29, 2026. [15]
  
National reciprocity legislation [16]&#160;is now something we know the Trump administration is working on. While it’s not the ideal situation–national constitutional carry would be so much better–it’s far better than the status quo. As it stands, a permit in one state might be recognized in another, or it might not. You have to navigate the insane patchwork of laws, all to exercise a constitutionally protected right. But if you have a driver’s license in Minnesota, you can drive anywhere in the United States. Your license is accepted everywhere, even though driving is considered a privilege and the right to keep and bear arms is a right. Yeah, someone try to make that make sense. Writing at Real Clear Politics, John Lott&#160;makes the case for national reciprocity. [17] Much of the gun-control debate centers on hypothetical risks. With reciprocity, however, we don’t have to speculate. With&#160;21.5 million [18]&#160;concealed handgun permit holders in the United States, we already know how they behave. In addition, most Americans already benefit from reciprocity. The&#160;average state [19]&#160;recognizes permits from 30 other states, allowing permit holders to travel legally with their firearms. Last year, when House Judiciary Committee passed national reciprocity along party lines, Democrats&#160;also opposed [20]&#160;legislation that would allow current and retired law enforcement officers with at least ten years of service to carry firearms in facilities open to the public – including schools – while traveling across the country. Given&#160;their fear [21]&#160;that allowing experienced current or retired law enforcement officers to carry would endanger public safety, it comes as no surprise that they also oppose allowing civilians to carry across state lines. Congressional opponents of reciprocity warned that permit holders would commit crimes but cited no evidence to support that claim. The facts point in the opposite direction. Concealed handgun permit holders are extraordinarily law-abiding. States&#160;revoke their permits for firearm-related violations at rates measured in thousandths – or even ten-thousandths – of one percent [22]. Police officers rarely commit firearm crimes, yet permit holders lose their permits for firearm offenses at only about&#160;one-twelfth [23]&#160;the rate that police are convicted of firearm related crimes. This is the typical anti-gun playbook. They treat unlawful gun carriers and permit holders as the exact same, even while pretending they understand the difference. In their mind, the paranoia they accuse us of takes hold and rather than differentiate between good guys and bad guys, they see us all as bad guys in waiting.. They claim to be able to tell the difference, but this is a case of “deeds not words” applying. Their deeds tell a different story. Permit holders are the most law-abiding people in the country. That’s been shown by years of data, also. It’s not some flash in the pan, but a trend that dates back a ways, likely to the day the first carry permit was issued. People who care about getting permits or constitutional carry laws aren’t the criminals. The bad guys have carried without permits for decades, and would continue to do so no matter what laws are in place. They don’t care about state lines, either. “This legislation is a dramatic infringement on states’ rights,”&#160;claimed [24]&#160;Emma Brown, executive director of the gun-control group Giffords, echoing a common criticism. Yet those same organizations routinely advocate federal gun-control laws that override state policy choices. What we need to understand about people like Brown here is that states’ rights only matter when it comes to gun restrictions. As Lott correctly notes, they routinely advocate for&#160;federal gun control [25], which is also a “dramatic infringement on states’ rights.”&#160; It’s like their calls for local control while opposing&#160;Second Amendment sanctuary communities [26]. They don’t want local control; they simply want things to be as difficult for gun owners as humanly possible. That includes the whole mess of reciprocity as it stands, versus national reciprocity. Opponents also claimed that national reciprocity would confuse travelers about which gun laws apply in each state and lead to more arrests. But reciprocity already exists across much of the country, and&#160;no evidence [27]&#160;shows that out-of-state permit holders create such problems. Indeed, the same situation exists for drivers when they cross state lines: They are required to follow the driving regulations for the state they are in. They’re required to follow all the&#160;laws of the state [28]&#160;they’re in, and it’s not an issue. But if it were, would it somehow be better if permit holders were somehow legally barred from carrying in particular states because of some quirk of how reciprocity works? I mean, if permit holders can’t be trusted to look at the laws of where they’re going, how would they know if their permits will be recognized in a different state under the current rules? In fact, the lack of any significant issues is, alone, proof that their fears and outrage are nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction to the concept of them losing ground. As Lott noted previously, all of their arguments are based on hypotheticals rather than anything concrete because nothing concrete supports the arguments. They have to use hypotheticals because it’s all they have. There’s no threat to anyone with national reciprocity…except to anti-gunners who fear yet another example of our&#160;gun rights [29]&#160;making us safer. Tom Knighton, “Why We Need National Reciprocity, At a Minimum,” Bearing Arms, July 6, 2026. [30]
  
we’ve also&#160;seen a profound bias in AI [31]&#160;when it comes to gun control. But that study about bias came from&#160;John Lott’s Crime Prevention Research Center [32], which gets dismissed by the mainstream media because Lott doesn’t toe the anti-gun line. In their minds, that means it doesn’t count. . . . Tom Knighton, “Oxford Study Finds Leftist Bias in AI,” Bearing Arms, July 6 2026. [33]
 Screenshot  “Concealed Handgun Permit Holders Remain Among America’s Most Law-Abiding Citizens,” Montgomery County, July 2026. [34] 

[1] https://www.concordmonitor.com/2026/07/09/my-turn-embracing-freedom-second-amendment/
[2] https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2026/07/09/mythbuster_us_much_safer_than_many_peer_nations_1193400.html
[3] https://patriotpost.us/articles/129008-appeals-court-tramples-the-second-amendment-upholding-assault-weapons-ban-2026-07-10
[4] https://www.dailyjournal.com/articles/392761-the-2nd-amendment-meets-the-front-door-of-private-property
[5] https://www.spectator.com.au/2026/06/the-shocking-truth-about-australian-crime-rates/
[6] https://www.americanrifleman.org/content/meet-an-australian-visiting-america-to-warn-us/
[7] https://crimeresearch.org/
[8] https://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/National-Topline-CPRC-05-19-26.pdf
[9] https://crimeresearch.org/2024/12/new-survey-on-the-rate-that-people-carry-concealed-handguns-comparing-constitutional-carry-states-right-to-carry-states-and-the-seven-may-issue-states-before-bruen/
[10] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/concealed-carry-permit-numbers-gun-sales-remain-solid-in-2024/
[11] https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/new-poll-shows-gun-rights-gaining-support/
[12] https://crimeresearch.org/2022/08/uber-driver-in-chicago-stops-mass-public-shooting/
[13] https://blog.joehuffman.org/2026/07/01/trust-the-science-2/
[14] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5882802
[15] https://www.nraila.org/articles/20260629/president-trump-reiterates-support-for-national-right-to-carry-reciprocity-and-nra
[16] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/06/02/why-national-reciprocity-at-a-minimum-is-needed-here-and-now-n1232712
[17] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/07/04/crossing_a_state_line_shouldnt_cost_you_your_right_to_self-defense_154301.html
[18] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5040077
[19] https://www.usconcealedcarry.com/resources/ccw_reciprocity_map
[20] https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/leosa-reform-bill-text.pdf
[21] https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRPT-119hrpt81/pdf/CRPT-119hrpt81.pdf
[22] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5040077
[23] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5040077
[24] https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nra-expert-why-bills-being-advanced-congress-crucial-law-abiding-gun-owners
[25] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/07/03/when-anti-gunners-reach-for-anything-to-attack-gun-rights-n1233068
[26] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/05/19/the-long-history-of-sanctuary-cities-and-why-2a-sanctuaries-matter-n1232578
[27] https://www.amazon.com/More-Guns-Less-Crime-Understanding/dp/1707911975/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2PYQ4HPEPWQN0&#38;keywords=more+guns+less+crime&#38;qid=1636267088&#38;sprefix=More+Guns+L%2Caps%2C238&#38;sr=8-1
[28] https://bearingarms.com/camedwards/2026/04/16/two-more-2a-cases-make-their-supreme-court-conference-debut-tomorrow-n1232251
[29] https://bearingarms.com/tags/gun-rights
[30] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/07/06/why-we-need-national-reciprocity-at-a-minimum-n1233085
[31] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/02/12/study-argues-ai-chatbots-have-anti-gun-bias-theres-a-reason-for-that-n1231538
[32] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/04/08/social-sciences-garbage-gun-research-and-the-replication-crisis-n1232148
[33] https://bearingarms.com/tomknighton/2026/07/06/oxford-study-finds-leftist-bias-in-ai-n1233086
[34] https://assets.montgomerycountymd.gov/files/2026-06/item-11-testimony8-AlvinScott.pdf]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Driver plows into people at a street festival Sunday in Chile, killing at least six, another seven injured</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/driver-plows-into-people-at-a-street-festival-sunday-in-chile-killing-at-least-six-another-seven-injured/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2026 19:26:15 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65960</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[This might not involve a terrorist attack, but it just shows how vehicles can be used to kill other people. . A driver plowed into people at a street festival Sunday in Chile, killing at least six, police said. The man reportedly lost control of the vehicle at the festival in the city of Vina [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[This might not involve a terrorist attack, but it just shows how vehicles can be used to kill other people. . 
A driver plowed into people at a street festival Sunday in Chile, killing at least six, police said. The man reportedly lost control of the vehicle at the festival in the city of Vina del Mar, Jorge Guaita, a police official, told AFP. Another seven people were injured but their lives are not in danger, he added. Early reports said the driver was speeding on a road running alongside the festival site. . . . AFP, “Driver runs over and kills six people at festival in Chile,” AFO, July 12, 2026 [1]
 The video here talks about road rage incidents across the world in recent months. 
[embedded content]
 

[1] https://citizen.digital/article/driver-runs-over-and-kills-six-people-at-festival-in-chile-n386331?fbclid=IwY2xjawTB-ghleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBicmlkETExcVZ4bzFpZUZQbkV3SzJOc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHvqHdD2TrDIuQF1-v3WJ6aEBG_7EknbWFClr6nP96UC-kSBkAX_Na0BeKNr2_aem_VxZZyBtUlGp4OjpPjbAsFA]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>New Research: Murders in US remain very concentrated in 2024, With the murders in worst 2% of counties remaining at their 2020 peaks</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/new-research-murders-in-us-remain-very-concentrated-in-2024-with-the-murders-in-worst-2-of-counties-remaining-at-their-2020-peaks/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65616</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[We have continued our reports on how very concentrated murders are in the United States. Our newest report is available here. Abstract The worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[We have continued our reports on how very concentrated murders are in the United States. Our newest report is available here [1]. 
Abstract The worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 46% of the population and account for 71% of murders. But even within those counties, the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas within those counties. By contrast, 53% of the counties have zero murders and another 16% have just one murder. These 69% of the counties account for only 3% of all murders in the country. This concentration of murders remains near decade-long peak levels. Between 2010 and 2014, the share of murders occurring in the worst 5% of counties fell from 71% to 69%, but it then climbed to 73% in 2020 before easing back to 71% in 2024. Much of the increase was driven by the worst 1% and 2% of counties, whose shares of murders rose sharply between 2014 and 2020 and remained historically high in 2024, even though their shares of the U.S. population changed little over time. John R Lott, Jr., “Murders in US remain very concentrated in 2024, With the murders in worst 2% of counties remaining at their 2020 peaks,” Social Science Research Network, June 20, 2026. [2]
 

[1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6971902
[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6971902]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>At The Federalist: Trump’s Immigration Enforcement Really Is Slashing Violent Crime</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/at-the-federalist-trumps-immigration-enforcement-really-is-slashing-violent-crime/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2026 11:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65888</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott has a new op-ed piece at The Federalist. It was also linked to by Real Clear Politics, Hot Air, and ACE of Spades HQ. Two days after the piece was posted, it was still the second most read piece at The Federalist (see the bottom of the post). . Is crime falling? [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott has a new op-ed piece at The Federalist [1]. It was also linked to by Real Clear Politics [2], Hot Air [3], and ACE of Spades HQ [4]. Two days after the piece was posted, it was still the second most read piece at The Federalist (see the bottom of the post)..
Is crime falling? Some conservatives, notably Steve Bannon,&#160;argue [5]&#160;that Americans should ignore the FBI’s crime statistics showing record drops in violent crime. The murder rate last year fell to the lowest rate ever recorded, and the violent crime rate is clearly at the lowest in many decades. But Bannon recently declared that “nobody believes” FBI crime data or its director, Kash Patel, adding: “I don’t want to hear any more statistics about how crime’s coming down.” . That skepticism overlooks an important distinction. , The FBI has made mistakes in the past, particularly in&#160;its active shooter reports [6]&#160;and hate crime data. Some police departments have also&#160;failed [7]&#160;to report complete crime data to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports. But those problems do not explain the concerns with the measure of overall crime. . The real issue is understanding what different crime measures actually tell us. Past problems with the FBI’s measure of crimes reported to police do not mean anyone manipulated the data. Nor do they mean that last year’s reported decline in crime — or the declines so far this year — are inaccurate.. . The United States has two primary measures of violent crime. The FBI tracks crimes reported to police. The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) estimates both reported and unreported crime. Researchers have known for decades that most crimes never reach the police. Victims report only about 40 percent of violent crimes and roughly 30 percent of property crimes. . The media focuses almost exclusively on FBI crime data. Before 2020, FBI data and the NCVS generally moved in the same direction. During the Biden administration, however, they sharply diverged. While reported violent crime fell by about 8 percent, total felony violent crime measured by the NCVS surged 59 percent — the largest four-year percentage increase since the survey began more than five decades ago. . Several factors explain that gap. Whether victims report crimes depends heavily on whether they believe police will catch and punish offenders. As cities reduced police staffing through budget cuts, retirements, and, in some places, “defund the police” policies, arrest rates declined. Lower arrest rates gave victims less reason to report crimes. . Some police departments also made reporting more difficult. In some jurisdictions, 911 operators asked whether the offender was still at the scene. If the answer was no — as it almost always was — they instructed victims to visit a police station later to file a report. Simply calling 911 does not place a crime in the FBI’s statistics; an officer must complete an official report. When governments make reporting more burdensome, some victims understandably decide it isn’t worth the effort. . Fortunately, many of those policies have been reversed. . Although reported crime has declined, we will not know whether total crime also fell in 2025 until the Bureau of Justice Statistics releases the next NCVS this September. . Even so, there is good reason for optimism. . Reducing crime is not complicated. Governments must make crime riskier by increasing arrests and convictions, imposing longer prison sentences, and allowing law-abiding citizens to defend themselves. The news on each of those fronts has been encouraging. . FBI arrests surged in 2025,&#160;rising 184 percent [8]&#160;over 2024 levels. Total FBI arrests — a broader category that includes many joint operations with state and local agencies — increased by&#160;197 percent [9]. . Voters also replaced several George Soros-backed prosecutors in jurisdictions such as Los Angeles and San Francisco with district attorneys who prosecute criminals more aggressively and seek tougher sentences. Across the country, President Trump’s U.S. attorneys have also pursued criminals far more aggressively than their predecessors. In Washington, D.C., for example, the Biden administration’s U.S. Attorney&#160;declined to prosecute 67 percent of those arrested [10]. Under U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, that figure has fallen to&#160;just 4 percent [11]. . Nor is it a coincidence that the record influx of illegal immigrants during the Biden administration coincided with a sharp increase in violent crime. It is equally unsurprising that crime has fallen as deportations have increased. Deportation records show that&#160;70 percent of illegal immigrants deported [12]&#160;during the Trump administration had either criminal convictions or pending criminal charges in the United States. Even those who avoid arrest understand that any contact with law enforcement could lead to deportation, giving them a strong incentive to stay off the police’s radar and avoid committing additional crimes. . Finally, the number of adults carrying concealed handguns has risen sharply, with the latest survey data showing a&#160;5-percentage-point increase in concealed carry [13]&#160;over the past year and a half. . Americans shouldn’t blindly accept crime statistics, but they need to understand what the different numbers actually measure. The FBI’s numbers show that reported crime has fallen dramatically, while the NCVS will tell us this September whether total violent crime has also declined. Stronger law enforcement, more aggressive prosecution, and greater accountability provide good reasons to expect that the encouraging trend in reported crime reflects a real improvement in public safety. John R. Lott, Jr., “Trump’s Immigration Enforcement Really Is Slashing Violent Crime,” The Federalist, July 9, 2026. [14]


[1] https://thefederalist.com/2026/07/09/trumps-immigration-enforcement-really-is-slashing-violent-crime/
[2] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2026/07/10/immigration_enforcement_is_slashing_violent_crime_704687.html
[3] https://hotair.com/headlines/2026/07/12/trumps-immigration-enforcement-really-is-slashing-violent-crime-n3816845
[4] https://acecomments.mu.nu/?post=420539
[5] https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5947251-bannon-doubts-fbi-crime-stats/?fbclid=IwY2xjawSxsVZleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETF5NzVWdTNMVEZ5QWJJVERJc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHhYRCr2gx1X_Ja65CSPgOLcFZKX9XvT1K1oC4Toi3ZaCnAzCImEhdOPCMCSE_aem__rR7_h8ZQgXJgUq9U8zOAA
[6] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/09/massive-errors-in-fbis-active-shooting-reports-from-2014-2024-regarding-cases-where-civilians-stop-attacks-instead-of-3-7-the-correct-number-is-at-least-36-excluding-gun-free-zones-it-ave/
[7] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/08/the-d-c-police-union-says-that-mayor-bowsers-claim-that-the-crime-data-manipulation-is-isolated-to-one-precinct-is-preposterous/
[8] https://www.fbi.gov/
[9] https://www.facebook.com/reel/773355865803074
[10] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jun/25/us-attorney-jeanine-pirro-fixing-dcs-broken-prosecution-record/
[11] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jun/25/us-attorney-jeanine-pirro-fixing-dcs-broken-prosecution-record/
[12] https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/01/20/dhs-recaps-worst-worst-criminal-illegal-aliens-ice-took-enforcement-action-during
[13] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/06/at-real-clear-investigations-gun-safety-violent-crime-drops-as-more-americans-pack-heat/
[14] https://thefederalist.com/2026/07/09/trumps-immigration-enforcement-really-is-slashing-violent-crime/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>At Real Clear Investigations: Mythbuster: U.S. Much Safer Than Many Peer Nations</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/at-real-clear-investigations-mythbuster-u-s-much-safer-than-many-peer-nations/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2026 13:15:55 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65885</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[. Conventional wisdom holds that the United States is the most violent and dangerous nation in the developed world. This dark view is frequently invoked by conservatives to demand stronger penalties for crimes and by progressives to argue for stronger gun laws.&#160; . At the same time, other nations point to crime as an Achilles [&#8230;]]]></description>
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Conventional wisdom holds that the United States is the most violent and dangerous nation in the developed world. This dark view is frequently invoked by conservatives to demand stronger penalties for crimes and by progressives to argue for stronger gun laws.&#160; . At the same time, other nations point to crime as an Achilles heel of the American system. These include two peer nations with some of the most restrictive gun laws in the world – Australia and Canada. In 2025, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation&#160;reported [1]&#160;that “the U.S. generally sees higher violent crime rates than many other countries.” Last year, the Canadian Press similarly&#160;reported [2]&#160;that “the number of police-reported violent crimes for every 100,000 people continue to be higher in the United States than in Canada.” . The data, however, undercuts this narrative. While the United States still leads in some categories, on the whole it has significantly less violent crime per capita than those two nations. .&#160;&#160; Regarding homicide, the most heinous crime of all, it’s true that in 2025, the U.S. murder rate was about four per 100,000 people – roughly twice Australia’s and Canada’s 2024 homicide rate. Yet it’s also true that homicides account for only a tiny fraction of violent crime. In 2024, homicides represented just 0.21% of violent crimes in the U.S., based on National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) estimates of rape/sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. Murder comprises an even smaller fraction of crimes in Australia and Canada.&#160; . Murders in the U.S. are usually highly concentrated geographically, often connected to street gang activity, and threaten only a tiny fraction of Americans.&#160;Just 2% of counties [3]&#160;account for approximately 54% of all murders, and within those counties roughly two-thirds of killings occur within areas covering only about ten city blocks.&#160;By contrast, 53% of U.S. counties report no murders in a typical year, while another 16% report only one. . Moreover, when analyzing the incidence of a broader set of crimes, the U.S. is nowhere near the most dangerous developed country on Earth.&#160; . Ignoring Police Because police statistics capture only a fraction of actual crime, the U.S., Canada, and Australia all conduct large-scale victimization surveys that estimate total crime, including incidents never reported to police. The Bureau of Justice Statistics has conducted the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which interviews roughly 240,000 Americans annually, for more than 50 years. Australia relies on a comparable survey conducted by the&#160;Australian Bureau of Statistics [4], while&#160;Statistics Canada conducts the General Social Survey [5]&#160;(GSS)&#160;on Safety and Victimization. . “Anyone who wants to understand the seriousness of crime in Canada needs to recognize that victimization surveys paint a more complete picture than police-reported crime,” said&#160;Gary Mauser, who has extensively studied&#160;crime&#160;at Simon Fraser University in Canada. . The gap between police statistics and actual victimization is substantial. In Canada, the police-reported violent-crime&#160;rate is 885 per 100,000 people [6].&#160;The GSS reported a violent victimization rate almost 10 times that –&#160;8,300 per 100,000 [7].&#160; . Australia shows a similar pattern. Although the state of Victoria did not provide assault data to the ABS, only about 37% of robberies and sexual assaults were&#160;reported [8]&#160;to police in 2024. . The U.S. data tell a very different story. Although the FBI does not collect national counts of simple assault, it&#160;recorded 1,203,808 violent crimes [9]&#160;in 2019. During the same year, the NCVS&#160;estimated&#160;2,013,220&#160;felonious violent crimes [10]&#160;– rape or sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault, excluding simple assault. Police reports therefore captured 59.8% of the NCVS estimate. . Using these broad estimates, Australia’s rape and sexual assault rate is roughly&#160;three times higher [11]&#160;than that of the United States. Australia’s assault rate is about twice as high, and its burglary rate is about 2.5 times higher. Robbery is the only category where the two countries report similar rates. . But even this Australian data significantly&#160;understates [12]&#160;the extent of violent crime because it counts victims rather than the number of crimes, unlike the U.S. data. If someone is robbed or sexually assaulted twice, the Australian survey records only one victimization, while the U.S. counts two separate crimes. As a result, Australia’s survey misses repeat victimizations and understates the total amount of violent crime. Even modest adjustments suggest that Australia’s violent crime rate is&#160;15% higher [13]&#160;than already discussed. . “For decades, researchers have documented that people report crimes more often when law enforcement is more likely to catch and punish the offenders,” said&#160;David Mustard, a professor and crime expert at the University of Georgia.&#160;“The extremely low reporting rates in Australia and Canada therefore raise serious doubts about public confidence in their criminal justice systems.” . Normalizing Rape For example, in Canada in 2019, about 8.1% of total violent crimes resulted in the person being arrested and charged with the crime (210,000 arrested and charged out of 2.59 million victimizations), which is quite low even compared to the 20% rate in the U.S.&#160; . In Australia, there are numerous complaints that “Rape is effectively decriminalized [14].” In New South Wales, of the 9,138 sexual assaults reported to police in 2022, there were only 1,016 convictions – just an 11% conviction rate. Indeed, during a recent lecture that I gave to college students in New South Wales in February, several women said there was no reason to report rapes and sexual assaults to the police because they believed nothing would happen to the criminal and it was personally embarrassing to come forward publicly. . As a result, an analysis based solely on police statistics can be misleading when comparing countries. Victimization surveys tell a different story. Although direct comparisons require some caution because the Canadian GSS and the U.S. NCVS define certain crimes like sexual assault differently, those differences generally favor Canada and make the U.S. appear relatively more violent. . Still, the results remain striking. In 2019, Canada’s overall violent-crime victimization rate was at least 175% higher than the U.S. after adjusting for different methods. “Anyone who wants to understand just how serious crime is in Canada needs to recognize that crime rates are higher in Canada than in the U.S., according to victimization surveys,” Mauser said. . Robbery offers an especially useful comparison because both surveys define it similarly. Canada’s robbery victimization rate was 268% higher than the U.S. rate. Property crime follows a similar pattern. Canada’s burglary rate was 259% higher than the U.S. rate.&#160; . Nor is this pattern unique to recent years.&#160;The International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS) [15], which used identical questions and definitions across participating countries before the United Nations assumed responsibility for the survey and later discontinued it, reached similar conclusions. In 2000, Australia’s violent-crime victimization rate – including robbery, sexual incidents, assaults, and threats – was 104% higher than the U.S. rate. Robbery was 150% higher and sexual assaults 167.9% higher. The survey also found Canada’s violent-crime victimization rate to be 40% higher than the U.S. . Few countries conduct victimization surveys, but the historical evidence from&#160;older ICVS data paints a similar picture [16]. The ICVS found that England and Wales and Scotland had violent crime rates about 40% higher than the United States, while Finland’s rate was about 20% higher. France, the Netherlands, and Sweden recorded rates roughly equal to the U.S., whereas Belgium and Poland experienced violent crime rates about 20% lower.&#160; . “The media’s emphasis on reported crime badly underestimates how bad the violent crime situation in Australia is compared to the U.S.,” Dr. Kesten C. Green, who has studied crime and is a researcher at the University of Adelaide Business School, tells RealClearInvestigations. . “Only victimization surveys capture both reported and unreported crimes, providing a far more complete picture of public safety, said&#160;Professor Carl Moody, a crime researcher at the College of William &#38; Mary. “Unfortunately, much of the media ignores this distinction and relies on police statistics to make cross-country comparisons that can seriously mislead the public.” John R. Lott, Jr., “Mythbuster: U.S. Much Safer Than Many Peer Nations,” Real Clear Investigations, July 9, 2026. [17]


[1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-13/washington-dc-crime-fact-check/105642022
[2] https://www.nsnews.com/national-news/police-reported-violent-crime-rate-grew-in-canada-as-it-dropped-in-the-us-report-11329318
[3] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6971902
[4] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/crime-victimisation/latest-release?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[5] https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&#38;SDDS=4504
[6] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250722/cg-a002-eng.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[7] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2021001/article/00014-eng.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[8] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-victims/latest-release?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[9] https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/fbi-report-crime-shows-decline-violent-crime-rate-third-consecutive-year?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[10] https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv19.pdf
[11] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/01/australians-are-dramatically-more-likely-to-be-victims-of-violent-crime-than-americans/
[12] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/01/australians-are-dramatically-more-likely-to-be-victims-of-violent-crime-than-americans/
[13] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/01/australians-are-dramatically-more-likely-to-be-victims-of-violent-crime-than-americans/
[14] https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2025/jan/31/is-effectively-decriminalised-how-did-sexual-assault-become-so-easy-to-get-away-with-ntwnfb
[15] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/85-002-x2002004-eng.pdf
[16] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/85-002-x2002004-eng.pdf
[17] https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2026/07/09/mythbuster_us_much_safer_than_many_peer_nations_1193400.html]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Another measure of our influence on the Crime Debate</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/another-measure-of-our-influence-on-the-crime-debate/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2026 11:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65857</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[There are other academics who have more of an influence on the academic debate, though Dr. Lott is still respectable in academic influence, but very high in terms of legislative &#38; legal as well as the general public debates. More details on the rankings for Lott are provided here.]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[There are other academics who have more of an influence on the academic debate, though Dr. Lott is still respectable in academic influence, but very high in terms of legislative &#38; legal as well as the general public debates.  More details on the rankings for Lott are provided here.  
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	<title>In Montana’s Lee Newspapers: I-194 threatens free speech for citizen groups</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/in-montanas-lee-newspapers-i-194-threatens-free-speech-for-citizen-groups/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2026 14:12:31 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65852</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott has an op-ed with Montana state representative Greg Overstreet in the Lee Newspapers in Montana including the Butte Montana Standard and the Ravalli Valley Ravalli Republic. Overstreet is a Montana state representative for House District 88. . You have the right to donate to the candidate you support. You can buy ads [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott has an op-ed with Montana state representative Greg Overstreet in the Lee Newspapers in Montana including the Butte Montana Standard [1] and the Ravalli Valley Ravalli Republic [2]. Overstreet is a Montana state representative for House District 88..
You have the right to donate to the candidate you support. You can buy ads in your local newspaper. But what happens when you join your neighbors to advocate for an issue such as access to public lands or high property taxes and form an organization to amplify your voice? But if Montana Initiative 194 passes, the state could effectively prohibit your organization from participating in the political process. . Montana Initiative 194, which is set to appear on the November ballot, would ban so-called “artificial persons”—including nonprofits, trusts, partnerships, corporations, trade associations, unincorporated associations, and any entity doing business in Montana—from contributing to political campaigns, ballot measure elections, or political parties. Any entity that violates the initiative would lose the right to do business in Montana until it certifies that it has complied with the law. . The initiative does not treat all organizations equally. It expressly exempts companies that own newspapers, radio stations, and television stations. Those companies can continue publishing news stories and editorials that help one candidate or hurt another, and they can still endorse their preferred candidates—endorsements that candidates highly value. As a result, the initiative would increase the political influence of media companies while restricting the political participation of other organizations. . The initiative also quite noticeably does not mention labor unions by name. Although its broad definition of “artificial persons” may encompass unions, any dispute over whether the initiative applies to them would ultimately be decided by the Democrat-controlled Montana Supreme Court, so don’t bet on unions being covered. . Democrats have never accepted the Supreme Court’s 2010 ruling in&#160;Citizens United&#160;and some on the left have hit on the novel&#160;end-run around the First Amendment by redefining what is a&#160;corporation. . The left-wing Center for American Progress&#160;developed and popularized this specific legal strategy. It&#160;justifies [3]&#160;the strategy this way: “When a state exercises its authority to define corporations as entities without the power to spend in politics, it will no longer be relevant to discuss whether the corporations have a right to spend in politics.” . The initiative would also drag Montana into costly legal battles. The U.S. Supreme Court has already rejected the argument that states can strip people of their First Amendment rights simply because they join together in corporations or other associations. Writing for the majority in&#160;Citizens United, Justice Anthony Kennedy explained:&#160;“The Court has thus rejected the argument that political speech of corporations or other associations should be treated differently under the First Amendment simply because such associations are not ‘natural persons.’” . But even many liberal Democrats believe these laws go too far. Hawaii recently enacted a similar law, but Hawaii’s Democratic attorney general, Anne Lopez, opposed it, warning that it would be costly to defend and was unlikely to survive constitutional scrutiny. . Indeed, the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii, represented by the Institute for Free Speech, has already challenged Hawaii’s law in federal court. The lawsuit argues that citizens have a constitutional right to associate and “pool their resources” to make their speech more effective. It also points out that the First Amendment “guarantees that lawmakers cannot pick and choose who gets to speak. Nor can lawmakers condition access to any legal benefit on forfeiting the fundamental right of free political speech.” . Montanans shouldn’t let the government decide which groups may speak and which must remain silent. Initiative 194 won’t get money out of politics; it would shift power to favored voices while silencing ordinary citizens who organize together. Free speech doesn’t disappear when people join with their neighbors to make themselves heard.to survive a constitutional&#160;challenge. John R. Lott, Jr. and Greg Overstreet, “I-194 threatens free speech for citizen groups,” Ravalli Republic, July 7, 2026. [4]


[1] https://mtstandard.com/opinion/column/article_30caf077-d47b-4c92-9c63-2ba40a1a568b.html
[2] https://ravallirepublic.com/opinion/column/article_8a32fa57-6a29-488d-b4ab-52b26f393bcf.html
[3] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-corporate-power-reset-that-makes-citizens-united-irrelevant/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[4] https://ravallirepublic.com/opinion/column/article_8a32fa57-6a29-488d-b4ab-52b26f393bcf.html]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>At Real Clear Politics: Crossing a State Line Shouldn’t Cost You Your Right to Self-Defense</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/at-real-clear-politics-crossing-a-state-line-shouldnt-cost-you-your-right-to-self-defense/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2026 12:39:12 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65827</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[. Imagine a woman driving across state lines alone at night, fearful that her car might break down and leave her vulnerable. Or picture a truck driver hauling valuable cargo across the country. In states such as California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and Oregon – five of the ten states that refuse to recognize [&#8230;]]]></description>
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Imagine a woman driving across state lines alone at night, fearful that her car might break down and leave her vulnerable. Or picture a truck driver hauling valuable cargo across the country. In states such as California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and Oregon – five of the ten states that refuse to recognize concealed handgun permits from other states – these travelers can find themselves defenseless. Nine states also either deny non-residents permits altogether or make them extremely difficult to obtain. . Last week [1], President Trump&#160;again [2]&#160;called for passage of national concealed carry reciprocity. The legislation would allow anyone legally permitted to carry a concealed handgun in their home state to carry across state lines, much as Americans use their driver’s licenses nationwide. The legislation would affect millions of law-abiding Americans. . Much of the gun-control debate centers on hypothetical risks. With reciprocity, however, we don’t have to speculate. With&#160;21.5 million [3]&#160;concealed handgun permit holders in the United States, we already know how they behave. In addition, most Americans already benefit from reciprocity. The&#160;average state [4]&#160;recognizes permits from 30 other states, allowing permit holders to travel legally with their firearms. . Last year, when House Judiciary Committee passed national reciprocity along party lines, Democrats&#160;also opposed [5]legislation that would allow current and retired law enforcement officers with at least ten years of service to carry firearms in facilities open to the public – including schools – while traveling across the country. Given&#160;their fear [6]&#160;that allowing experienced current or retired law enforcement officers to carry would endanger public safety, it comes as no surprise that they also oppose allowing civilians to carry across state lines. . Congressional opponents of reciprocity warned that permit holders would commit crimes but cited no evidence to support that claim. The facts point in the opposite direction. Concealed handgun permit holders are extraordinarily law-abiding. States&#160;revoke their permits for firearm-related violations at rates measured in thousandths – or even ten-thousandths – of one percent [7]. Police officers rarely commit firearm crimes, yet permit holders lose their permits for firearm offenses at only about&#160;one-twelfth [8]&#160;the rate that police are convicted of firearm related crimes. . “This legislation is a dramatic infringement on states’ rights,”&#160;claimed [9]&#160;Emma Brown, executive director of the gun-control group Giffords, echoing a common criticism. Yet those same organizations routinely advocate federal gun-control laws that override state policy choices. . Opponents also claimed that national reciprocity would confuse travelers about which gun laws apply in each state and lead to more arrests. But reciprocity already exists across much of the country, and&#160;no evidence [10]&#160;shows that out-of-state permit holders create such problems. Indeed, the same situation exists for drivers when they cross state lines: They are required to follow the driving regulations for the state they are in. . Critics also argue that permit standards vary from state to state. Yet no evidence shows that states with less restrictive permitting systems experience higher permit revocation rates. . Despite these fears, more than 86% of police chiefs and sheriffs support national reciprocity, and over 90% of rank-and-file officers support concealed carry laws. These officers see firsthand how concealed carry works in practice. They understand that police deter crime, but they also know they usually arrive after the crime has begun. Victims often must defend themselves first. Consistent with that experience, the&#160;overwhelming weight of academic research [11]&#160;finds that allowing law-abiding citizens to carry concealed handguns reduces crime. . With tens of millions of Americans legally carrying concealed handguns over many decades, if opponents could identify even dozens of cases in which out-of-state permit holders created serious problems, their concerns would deserve careful consideration. They cannot. Such cases remain exceedingly rare. Americans do not need to guess whether&#160;gun-control advocates’ concerns&#160;are justified. . Carrying a firearm provides the greatest benefit to those who face the largest physical disadvantages – women and the elderly – and to those who face the highest risk of violent crime, including many poor black residents of high-crime neighborhoods. Not surprisingly, these groups have accounted for the&#160;largest percentage growth [12]&#160;in permit ownership over the past decade. Between 2015 and 2024, permits held by women grew 112% faster than those held by men, while permits held by black Americans grew 284% faster than those held by whites. . Real life is not the movies. Most women cannot overpower several larger, stronger men, no matter how well trained they are. Men also generally possess greater upper-body strength and speed. . A firearm changes that equation. It gives women a far more effective means of self-defense. If an attacker has already closed the distance enough to seize a woman’s firearm, she is already in grave danger regardless. . Peer-reviewed research finds that allowing concealed carry reduces murder rates for both men and women. The reduction for women, however, is roughly&#160;three to four times [13]&#160;larger than the reduction for men. . The House will likely pass national reciprocity, but it faces a steeper challenge in the Senate. Breaking the expected Democratic filibuster will require 60 votes, meaning at least seven Democratic senators must cross party lines. Those senators need only examine their own states’ experience. Six states represented by 12 Democratic senators –&#160;Arizona, Georgia, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont [14], and&#160;Virginia [15]&#160;– already recognize concealed handgun permits from every other state. None has seen a problem with reciprocity. . Police play an indispensable role in public safety. But&#160;around 700,000 [16]&#160;officers cannot protect over 340 million Americans everywhere at once. Congress should ensure that law-abiding Americans do not lose their ability to defend themselves simply by crossing a state line. John R. Lott, Jr., “Crossing a State Line Shouldn’t Cost You Your Right to Self-Defense,” Real Clear Politics, July 4, 2026. [17]


[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/06/trump-pushes-nationwide-right-to-carry-legislation-with-surprise-declaration-on-june-23-2026/
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/10/president-trump-and-fbi-director-hold-news-conference-part-discussing-gun-control-and-how-the-administration-is-investigating-national-reciprocity-for-concealed-carry/
[3] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5040077
[4] https://www.usconcealedcarry.com/resources/ccw_reciprocity_map
[5] https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/leosa-reform-bill-text.pdf
[6] https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRPT-119hrpt81/pdf/CRPT-119hrpt81.pdf
[7] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5040077
[8] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5040077
[9] https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nra-expert-why-bills-being-advanced-congress-crucial-law-abiding-gun-owners
[10] https://www.amazon.com/More-Guns-Less-Crime-Understanding/dp/1707911975/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2PYQ4HPEPWQN0&#38;keywords=more+guns+less+crime&#38;qid=1636267088&#38;sprefix=More+Guns+L%2Caps%2C238&#38;sr=8-1
[11] https://crimeresearch.org/2014/11/do-right-to-carry-laws-reduce-violent-crime/
[12] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5040077
[13] https://www.amazon.com/More-Guns-Less-Crime-Understanding/dp/1707911975/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2PYQ4HPEPWQN0&#38;keywords=more+guns+less+crime&#38;qid=1636267088&#38;sprefix=More+Guns+L%2Caps%2C238&#38;sr=8-1
[14] https://www.usconcealedcarry.com/resources/ccw_reciprocity_map
[15] https://vsp.virginia.gov/services/firearms/reciprocity-and-recognition/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[16] https://bjs.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh236/files/media/document/sop20.pdf
[17] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/07/04/crossing_a_state_line_shouldnt_cost_you_your_right_to_self-defense_154301.html]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>ChatGPT Evaluates the Impact of different Academic Researchers on the Gun Control Debate</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/chatgpt-evaluates-the-impact-of-different-academic-researchers-on-the-gun-control-debate/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 03 Jul 2026 19:09:35 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65822</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[ChatGPT was asked to evaluate the top academic researchers in terms of their impact on the gun control debate on a 1 to 10 scale. ChatGPT also writes of John Lott’s research: “Probably the single most influential empirical researcher in legislative debates over concealed carry, right-to-carry laws, permitless carry, and Second Amendment litigation. His work [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[ChatGPT was asked to evaluate the top academic researchers in terms of their impact on the gun control debate on a 1 to 10 scale. ChatGPT also writes of John Lott’s research: “Probably the single most influential empirical researcher in legislative debates over concealed carry, right-to-carry laws, permitless carry, and Second Amendment litigation. His work has been cited in countless state legislative hearings, congressional testimony, amicus briefs, and expert reports over nearly 30 years.” On the gun control side it writes about Phil Cook: “Perhaps the most influential academic on the gun-control side. His research has shaped federal policy discussions, National Academies reports, and the work of agencies such as the CDC and DOJ. Frequently cited in legislative testimony and litigation.” The overall rating isn’t based on a simple average, but a weighted average that takes this form: Overall = 0.50(Academic) + 0.30(Legislative/Legal) + 0.20(Public). Screenshot 
]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>On Sunday Night with Bill Cunningham Show: To Discuss Gun Safety and Crime</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/on-sunday-night-with-bill-cunningham-show-to-discuss-gun-safety-and-crime/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 03 Jul 2026 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65513</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Bill Cunningham national radio show to discuss how rising rates of lawful concealed carry, particularly among women, Black Americans, and Hispanic Americans, together with stronger law enforcement and immigration enforcement, have coincided with declining violent crime and historically low murder rates, while emphasizing that defensive gun use occurs far [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Dr. John Lott appeared on The Bill Cunningham national radio show to discuss how rising rates of lawful concealed carry, particularly among women, Black Americans, and Hispanic Americans, together with stronger law enforcement and immigration enforcement, have coincided with declining violent crime and historically low murder rates, while emphasizing that defensive gun use occurs far more frequently than criminal gun use. See also Dr. Lott’s new piece at&#160;Real Clear Investigations titled “Gun Safety: Violent Crime Drops as More Americans Pack Heat [1].”  (Sunday, June 13, 2026) 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/06/at-real-clear-investigations-gun-safety-violent-crime-drops-as-more-americans-pack-heat/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Gunman shot by trooper and civilian after opening fire on Memorial Drive in Cambridge, more than 60 rounds were fired by the attacker</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/gunman-shot-by-trooper-and-civilian-after-opening-fire-on-memorial-drive-in-cambridge-more-than-60-rounds-were-fired-by-the-attacker/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2026 05:16:03 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65030</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Authorities say a civilian and trooper likely prevented a mass-casualty event on the crowded roadway. The gunman fired more than 60 rounds while walking beside the road before officers shot and wounded him. . A gunman who&#160;opened fire&#160;with what authorities said was an assault-style rifle on Memorial Drive in Cambridge, Massachusetts Monday afternoon was shot [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Authorities say a civilian and trooper likely prevented a mass-casualty event on the crowded roadway. [1] The gunman fired more than 60 rounds [2] while walking beside the road before officers shot and wounded him. . 
A gunman who&#160;opened fire [3]&#160;with what authorities said was an assault-style rifle on Memorial Drive in Cambridge, Massachusetts Monday afternoon was shot by a responding State Police trooper and a civilian. Two men in separate cars were shot and have life-threatening injuries.&#160; . The suspect, 46-year-old Tyler Brown of Boston, is in custody and is being treated for gunshot wounds at a Boston hospital.&#160; . It happened around 1:30 p.m. between River Street and the Pleasant Street extension. Videos from witnesses showed the gunman walking down the middle of the street firing and waving a rifle. . . . . Brown was&#160;walking down the middle of Memorial Drive [4], firing the rifle in “an erratic fashion at various vehicles along the road,” Ryan said at a&#160;news conference [5]&#160;Monday night.&#160; . Ryan said 50-to-60 rounds were fired and at least a dozen vehicles were hit by bullets. Two men in separate vehicles were shot and are currently being treated for life-threatening injuries at Boston hospitals.&#160; . As people scattered from their cars, Ryan said a State Police trooper and a civilian, a Marine veteran who has a license to carry a gun, went toward the suspect with their weapons.&#160; . “Both the trooper and the civilian fired their weapons, and that suspect was struck multiple times in the extremities,” Ryan said. . . .  .Matt Schooley, Louisa Moller, and Kristina Rex, “Gunman shot by trooper and civilian after opening fire on Memorial Drive in Cambridge; 2 in critical condition,” CBS News, May 12, 2026. [6]
 

[1] https://apnews.com/article/boston-cambridge-memorial-drive-shooting-d9ac815874b053bd997a9504a1094f12
[2] https://apnews.com/article/boston-cambridge-memorial-drive-shooting-d9ac815874b053bd997a9504a1094f12
[3] https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/cambridge-ma-shooting-memorial-drive-tyler-brown-witnesses/
[4] https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/video-cambridge-shooting-gun-memorial-drive/
[5] https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/video/da-provides-update-on-memorial-drive-shooting-suspect-in-custody/
[6] https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/cambridge-massachusetts-state-police-shooting-memorial-drive/?utm_source=chatgpt.com]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Congressman Thomas Massie’s NICS Data Reporting Act of 2025 Passed Unanimously by the US House of Representatives.</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/featured/congressman-thomas-massies-nics-data-reporting-act-of-2025-passed-unanimously-by-the-us-house-of-representatives/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2026 21:29:08 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>Featured</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=65018</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[[embedded content] The House&#160;voted&#160;and passed on a unanimous voice vote Congressman Thomas Massie’s NICS Data Reporting Act. The House Judiciary Committee had previously passed the bill unanimously..&#160;Massie’s presentation on May 12, 2026 and the passage of the bill in the House is shown in the above video. Our discussion of the bill is provided in [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[
[embedded content]
 The House&#160;voted [1]&#160;and passed on a unanimous voice vote Congressman Thomas Massie’s NICS Data Reporting Act. The House Judiciary Committee had previously passed the bill unanimously..&#160;Massie’s presentation on May 12, 2026 and the passage of the bill in the House is shown in the above video. Our discussion of the bill is provided in the write up at Real Clear Politics [2]. Massie thanks Dr. John Lott for his work on this bill. Many Democrats don’t want to fix this because it would eliminate their big talking point&#160;about 5.1 million [3]&#160;dangerous or prohibited people having been stopped from buying guns since the instant background check system went into effect in 1998.  

[1] https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/2267/text?s=1&#38;r=2&#38;hl=Thomas+Massie+NICS+Data+Reporting+Act
[2] http://Massie's presentation on May 12, 2026 and the passage of the bill in the House is shown in the above video
[3] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/12/the-nics-background-check-system-has-issued-5-1-million-denials-since-1998/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>At Real Clear Politics: Gun Background Checks Are Failing the Wrong People</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/at-real-clear-politics-gun-background-checks-are-failing-the-wrong-people/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 15:57:44 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=64993</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[. The background check system for gun purchases is a mess. Republicans have criticized Democratic presidents for failing to prosecute people denied gun purchases through background checks. Democrats have leveled the same criticism at Republican presidents. But both sides miss the real problem. The system generates mistaken denials – “false positives” – by confusing felons [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[.
The background check system for gun purchases is a mess. Republicans have criticized Democratic presidents for failing to prosecute people denied gun purchases through background checks. Democrats have leveled the same criticism at Republican presidents. But both sides miss the real problem. The system generates mistaken denials – “false positives” – by confusing felons with non-felons, so the denials aren’t real cases. And those errors disproportionately affect black and Hispanic males. . This week, the House will&#160;vote [1] on Congressman Thomas Massie’s NICS Data Reporting Act. The House Judiciary Committee passed the bill unanimously. The legislation would require the Department of Justice to collect data on errors in the background check system. . In the latest year available, the National Instant Criminal Background Check System denied&#160;116,587&#160;gun purchases in 2023 [2], but returned only 14 indictments and just five convictions. These numbers are nothing new. In 2022,&#160;there were 131,865 denials [3], 18 indicted, and three convictions. . For example, in 2013, Sen. Jeff Sessions, before becoming attorney general,&#160;accused [4]&#160;the Obama administration of failing to enforce existing gun laws against prohibited purchasers. After joining the first Trump administration as attorney general, Sessions pledged to “swiftly and aggressively prosecute [5]” prohibited individuals who attempted to buy firearms illegally. While in office, he&#160;declared [6]: “The National Instant Criminal Background Check System is critical for us to be able to keep guns out of the hands of those that are prohibited from owning them.” He even branded the effort as “Lie-and-Try” prosecutions. . But as I&#160;predicted at the time [7], Sessions’ efforts did not increase prosecutions. Gun-control groups such as the Giffords Law Center later&#160;complained [8]&#160;that the Trump administration also failed to enforce the background check system. . These cases are also extremely easy to prosecute: the buyer signs a form swearing they are not prohibited from purchasing a gun, presents government-issued ID, and is almost always recorded on video while attempting the purchase. Forgetting a long prison sentence is not a credible defense. . Sessions failed because these were not legitimate cases. Prosecutors can charge a felon who is legally barred from buying a gun, but they cannot realistically prosecute someone simply because he shares a phonetically similar name and a similar birth date with a felon. . The people most impacted by the false positives are poor minorities, since people tend to have names similar to others in their racial groups. Because a high proportion of black and Hispanic males are prohibited from owning guns, law-abiding minority males face the highest rate of background-check mistakes.&#160; . About&#160;33% of black males [9]&#160;and&#160;18% of Hispanic males have felony records, compared with only about 12% of American men overall. Given those differences, it is not surprising that the system’s mistakes disproportionately affect black and Hispanic males. . Many of those people are trying to buy guns to protect themselves. “This incredibly high rate of false positives imposes a real burden on the most vulnerable people,”&#160;said [10]&#160;Reagan Dunn, the first national coordinator for Project Safe Neighborhoods, a Justice Department program started in 2001 to ensure gun laws are enforced. . People who are denied can file an appeal, but most must hire a lawyer to do so. Legal fees are expensive, typically starting at around $3,000. Many who start the process drop it after they see how costly it is. Many people may want a gun for protection, yet even middle-income individuals may decide that the cost of an appeal exceeds the value they place on owning a gun. . Fortunately, there’s an easy fix. The government should be required to use all of the information that it collects when gun buyers fill out the form to buy a gun (e.g., exact names, Social Security numbers, and addresses). If private companies constantly confused innocent people with criminals when doing background checks on employees, lawsuits would drive them out of business.&#160;&#160; . Many Democrats don’t want to fix this because it would eliminate their big talking point&#160;about 5.1 million [11]&#160;dangerous or prohibited people having been stopped from buying guns since the instant background check system went into effect in 1998. Many Republicans have also invested a lot in attacking Obama and the Democrats for not enforcing gun control laws and prosecuting more prohibited purchasers.&#160;&#160; . Fortunately, Massie’s bill that Congress looks set to pass this week will help make these problems clear and them hopefully lead to changes that will actually fix the system.&#160; . Everyone wants to stop dangerous people from buying guns. But let’s fix the system so it stops those who are at risk of causing harm, not law-abiding citizens who want to protect themselves and their families.&#160;&#160; . John R. Lott Jr. is president of the Crime Prevention Research Center. He served as the senior advisor for research and statistics in the Office of Justice Programs and the Office of Legal Policy in the U.S. Department of Justice during 2020-21. John R. Lott, Jr., “Gun Background Checks Are Failing the Wrong People,” Real Clear Politics, May 11, 2026. [12]


[1] https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/2267/text?s=1&#38;r=2&#38;hl=Thomas+Massie+NICS+Data+Reporting+Act
[2] https://www.justice.gov/ovw/media/1375616/dl
[3] https://www.justice.gov/ovw/media/1347496/dl
[4] https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2013/apr/16/jeff-sessions/jeff-sessions-says-gun-prosecutions-have-declined-/
[5] https://dailycaller.com/2018/04/05/sessions-background-check-policy-will-fail/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[6] https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/attorney-general-jeff-sessions-directs-fbi-and-atf-conduct-comprehensive-review-national?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[7] https://dailycaller.com/2018/04/05/sessions-background-check-policy-will-fail/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[8] https://democracyforward.org/news/press-releases/giffords-law-center-demands-answers-fbi-trump-administration-removed-fugitives-national-background-check-system-gun-sales/
[9] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-017-0611-1
[10] https://crimeresearch.org/2018/02/op-ed-new-york-times-background-checks-not-answer-gun-violence/
[11] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/12/the-nics-background-check-system-has-issued-5-1-million-denials-since-1998/
[12] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2026/05/11/gun_background_checks_are_failing_the_wrong_people_154110.html]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Vote Fraud: If there is “big money” in getting signatures for petitions and that big money creates an incentive for fraud, why isn’t there also an incentive for fraud in voting?</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/vote-fraud-if-there-is-big-money-in-getting-signatures-for-petitions-and-that-big-money-creates-an-incentive-for-fraud-why-isnt-there-also-an-incentive-for-fraud-in-voting/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2026 00:17:03 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=64989</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[[embedded content] ABC Channel KGO: In San Francisco’s Tenderloin last month, Philip Deshaun Brunson, a 50-year-old Detroit man with a criminal record, allegedly paid homeless individuals $5 each to forge signatures for “Building a Better California.” Signature gathers themselves were being paid $15 for each signature. A viral video captured Brunson instructing people to use [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[
[embedded content]
 
ABC Channel KGO [1]: In San Francisco’s Tenderloin last month, Philip Deshaun Brunson, a 50-year-old Detroit man with a criminal record, allegedly paid homeless individuals $5 each to forge signatures for “Building a Better California.” Signature gathers themselves were being paid $15 for each signature. A viral video captured Brunson instructing people to use neat handwriting before confronting ABC7 reporter Dan Noyes. The campaign says it rejected all of Brunson’s submissions and maintains a zero-tolerance policy for fraud. State officials and the San Francisco District Attorney are now investigating the alleged felony-level forgery, raising concerns about potential threats to California’s ballot process, in which counties manually verify signatures against voter rolls.
 Democrats spent $40 per vote ($64 million, possibly about $70 million [2]) for the 1.604 million votes for the April 21, 2026 vote on the redistricting referendum. If they spend $40 per possibly vote (possibly $44), how much would they spend for a certain vote? If politicians are willing to pay for people to sign petitions, are they willing to pay people to vote? How much are political parties willing to bribe people to provide a certain vote? 

[1] https://abc7news.com/post/abc7-eyewitness-news-team-identifies-man-viral-video-confrontation-fake-petition-signatures-san-francisco-tenderloin/19059881/
[2] https://www.foxnews.com/politics/social-media-erupts-after-democrats-burned-64m-failed-virginia-gerrymander]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Defensive Gun Uses Occur About Five Times More Often Than Criminals Use Gun in Crime</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/defensive-gun-uses-occur-about-five-times-more-often-than-criminals-use-gun-in-crime/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2026 22:29:56 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=64990</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[by johnrlott &#124; May 13, 2026 &#124; Defensive Gun Use Authorities say a civilian and trooper likely prevented a mass-casualty event on the crowded roadway. The gunman fired more than 60 rounds while walking beside the road before officers shot and wounded him. . A gunman who&#160;opened fire&#160;with what authorities&#8230; by johnrlott &#124; May 12, [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[  [1] by johnrlott [2] &#124; May 13, 2026 &#124; Defensive Gun Use [3]Authorities say a civilian and trooper likely prevented a mass-casualty event on the crowded roadway. The gunman fired more than 60 rounds while walking beside the road before officers shot and wounded him. . A gunman who&#160;opened fire&#160;with what authorities...
   [4] by johnrlott [2] &#124; May 12, 2026 &#124; Featured [6]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7KnRhAyM6A The House&#160;voted&#160;and passed on a unanimous voice vote Congressman Thomas Massie’s NICS Data Reporting Act. The House Judiciary Committee had previously passed the bill unanimously..&#160;Massie's presentation on May 12, 2026 and...
   [7] by RW [8] &#124; May 12, 2026 &#124; Radio [9]Dr. John Lott appeared on John Solomon Reports to discuss how the legacy media manipulates statistics to downplay the issues of criminal aliens. Dr. Lott's insights are critical for understanding the narrative surrounding crime and immigration in America. (Tuesday,...
 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/05/gunman-shot-by-trooper-and-civilian-after-opening-fire-on-memorial-drive-in-cambridge-more-than-60-rounds-were-fired-by-the-attacker/
[2] https://crimeresearch.org/author/johnrlott/
[3] https://crimeresearch.org/category/defensive-gun-use/
[4] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/05/congressman-thomas-massies-nics-data-reporting-act-of-2025-passed-unanimously-by-the-us-house-of-representatives/
[5] https://crimeresearch.org/author/johnrlott/
[6] https://crimeresearch.org/category/featured/
[7] https://crimeresearch.org/2026/05/on-john-solomon-reports-to-discuss-crime-statistics-and-media-manipulation/
[8] https://crimeresearch.org/author/rujunwang/
[9] https://crimeresearch.org/category/radio/]]></content:encoded>
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	<title>Direct Evidence of Criminals Being Inspired to Commit Crime because Other Criminals have gotten Media Attention. We See it now in the “Luigi Mangione effect”Violence Inspired by Mangione.</title>
	<link>https://namelyliberty.com/john-r-lott-jr/direct-evidence-of-criminals-being-inspired-to-commit-crime-because-other-criminals-have-gotten-media-attention-we-see-it-now-in-the-luigi-mangione-effectviolence-inspired-by-mangio/?utm_source=Liberty+RSS+Feed</link>
	<pubDate>Fri, 08 May 2026 00:36:30 +0000</pubDate>
	<dc:creator>John R Lott Jr.</dc:creator>
	<guid isPermaLink="false">https://crimeresearch.org/?p=64925</guid>
	<description><![CDATA[Mass public shooters often explicitly plan their attacks to maximize news coverage. As shown at the bottom of this post, many explicitly state this goal in their manifestos and diaries. These killers also study and imitate previous attackers, including by choosing gun-free zones as targets. We are now seeing a similar phenomenon with criminals inspired [&#8230;]]]></description>
	<content:encoded><![CDATA[Mass public shooters often explicitly plan their attacks to maximize news coverage. As shown at the bottom of this post, many explicitly state this goal in their manifestos and diaries. These killers also study and imitate previous attackers, including by choosing gun-free zones as targets [1]. We are now seeing a similar phenomenon with criminals inspired by Luigi Mangione murdering a businessman. Admirers have repeatedly observed that Mangione was attractive, intelligent, anti-establishment, and “morally justified.” [2] Here are some criminals who were inspired to commit their crimes by Mangione. 
Jonathan Rinderknecht&#160;(30, California): Accused of intentionally starting the Palisades Fire (also called the Lachman Fire) in the Santa Monica Mountains on or around January 1, 2025. The fire became one of California’s most destructive wildfires, killing 12 people, destroying thousands of homes/structures, and causing billions in damage. Prosecutors state he was “fixated” on Mangione in the weeks/hours before the arson: he searched terms like “Free Luigi,” viewed Mangione as a Robin Hood-like vigilante hero against the wealthy [3], and ranted to Uber passengers about capitalism, the rich, and vigilantism while driving erratically. He faces federal arson charges (pleaded not guilty; trial scheduled for June 2026).&#160; Chamel Abdulkarim&#160;(29, California): Accused of arson at a Kimberly-Clark paper goods warehouse/distribution center in Ontario, CA, in April 2026. He allegedly filmed himself setting stacks of inventory on fire while ranting about low wages and capitalism (“All you had to do was pay us enough to live”), causing ~$500–600 million in damage. Afterward, he texted a co-worker explicitly comparing himself to Mangione (“Luigi popped that mutherf—er… a lot of people are going to understand”) [4]. He faces federal and state arson charges (pleaded not guilty).&#160; Daniel Moreno-Gama&#160;(also referred to as Daniel Alejandro Moreno-Gama, 20, Texas): Accused of throwing a Molotov cocktail at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s San Francisco home (April 2026) and later threatening to burn down OpenAI headquarters while carrying kerosene and an anti-AI manifesto. Months earlier, in online chats (including with podcast producers), he referenced “Luigi’ing some tech CEOs” as a provocative idea [5]. He faces charges including attempted murder and arson (pleaded not guilty).&#160; Riley Jane English, a 24-year-old transgender woman, (also referred to in some reports as Ryan Michael English, Massachusetts): Accused of making terroristic threats/planning violence at the U.S. Capitol in January 2025, including targeting Trump administration officials. She allegedly told police she was inspired by Mangione [6] (more cite also here [7]). This falls under criminal threats charges. Briana Boston, 42, threatened her health insurance provider, Blue Cross Blue Shield, after they denied her claim. She allegedly said “Delay, deny, depose. You people are next,” and told police she used it because it was “in the news.”&#160;The words “delay,” “deny” and “depose” were written on the casings left at the scene of the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in a New York City [8]. Shane Devon Tamura killed four before suicide) is another example of Mangione “inspiring” violence. Prosecutors in Mangione’s federal case have cited the July 2025 mass shooting at NFL headquarters in Manhattan [9]. Tamura left anti-NFL writings (blaming football for CTE), but public reports do not show Tamura himself explicitly referencing Mangione by name.
 Now here are examples of mass public shooters who were driven by their desire to get media attention. 
Seung-Hui Cho (Virginia Tech, 2007)Cho mailed a multimedia manifesto to NBC News between the first and second phases of his attack [10]. He repeatedly framed himself as becoming historically significant and compared himself to Columbine shooters Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold. Investigators and later analyses noted that Cho appeared obsessed with the publicity surrounding prior mass killers. After Virginia Tech, multiple later attackers explicitly referenced Cho’s death toll of 32 victims as a benchmark to exceed.&#160; Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold (Columbine, 1999)Their journals and “Basement Tapes [11]” show extensive discussion about becoming infamous and being remembered forever. Harris wrote about wanting to “kick-start a revolution” and predicted movies would be made about them. They also discussed body counts and the scale of destruction they hoped to achieve. Columbine itself later became a reference point for numerous copycat attackers. Adam Lanza (Sandy Hook, 2012)Lanza maintained spreadsheets and research on mass killers and appears to have been highly focused on prior massacres and their notoriety. He reportedly admired Anders Breivik and other mass murderers [12]. While he left no conventional manifesto, his writings and online activity suggest obsession with mass killings as historical events that generated attention. Anders Behring Breivik (Norway, 2011)Breivik’s 1,518-page manifesto explicitly discussed publicity strategy [13]. He described the attack as “marketing” for his ideological message and carefully planned media impact, including distribution of the manifesto immediately before the killings. Brenton Tarrant (Christchurch mosque shootings, 2019)Tarrant’s manifesto and livestream strategy were designed explicitly for viral media dissemination [14]. He referenced internet fame culture and meme amplification, and he intended the attack to achieve maximum online circulation. Pekka-Eric Auvinen (Jokela school shooting, Finland, 2007)Posted videos and a manifesto online [15] before the attack, calling himself a “natural selector.” He sought recognition and distributed material intended to gain attention after the shooting. Elliot Rodger (Isla Vista, 2014)Rodger’s lengthy manifesto (“My Twisted World [16]”) and YouTube videos repeatedly emphasized that the attack would make the world finally notice him. He explicitly connected violence with gaining recognition and historical importance. Payton Gendron (Buffalo supermarket shooting, 2022)His writings reflected awareness of prior mass shooters and online notoriety culture [17]. He discussed live streaming and media impact in ways similar to Christchurch attacker Brenton Tarrant [18]. Audrey Hale (The Covenant School, Nashville, 2023; 6 killed) Recovered journals explicitly stated desires for infamy [19], including lines such as “I will die a shooter, hopefully to become infamous… and I will be the horror to inflict pain” and “It’s infamous to die young!” The writings framed the attack as a path to lasting notoriety. Dimitrios Pagourtzis (Santa Fe High School, Texas, 2018): According to the probable cause affidavit and police interviews, he told officers he deliberately spared certain students he liked “so he could have his story told.” [20] Journals and writings reflected obsession with gaining notoriety through the attack.
 

[1] https://crimeresearch.org/2025/08/at-the-wall-street-journal-another-mass-shooting-in-a-gun-free-zone/
[2] https://www.wired.com/story/inside-the-contentious-world-of-luigi-mangione-supporters/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[3] https://www.foxnews.com/us/palisades-fire-suspect-allegedly-fixated-luigi-mangione-held-resentment-rich-court-docs
[4] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-warehouse-worker-accused-arson-raged-online-capitalism-rcna331983
[5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/altman-attack-suspect-allegedly-talked-181255648.html
[6] https://www.foxnews.com/us/man-charged-carrying-molotoc-cocktails-capitol-allegedy-targeted-bessent-hegseth-johnson
[7] https://apnews.com/article/ryan-michael-english-capitol-41e82c1d40f8c2ddcb5fe21ebbcc003b
[8] https://apnews.com/article/florida-woman-delay-deny-depose-blue-cross-shield-64aff53370f775c3eeb8ecfeb7c3a4fd
[9] https://abcnews.com/US/luigi-mangione-influenced-mass-shooting-manhattans-nfl-headquarters/story?id=125090428
[10] https://abcnews.com/GMA/story?id=3055889&#38;page=1&#38;utm_source=chatgpt.com
[11] https://time.com/archive/6598208/the-columbine-tapes/
[12] https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/report-sandy-hook-elementary-school-gunman-adam-lanza-was-obsessed-with-norwegian/
[13] https://www.jstor.org/tc/accept?origin=%2Fstable%2Fpdf%2Fresrep31912.8.pdf%3Futm_source%3Dchatgpt.com&#38;is_image=False
[14] https://vortex.uni.mau.se/2024/08/13-years-on-the-enduring-influence-of-breiviks-manifesto-on-far-right-terror/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[15] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/nov/08/schoolsworldwide.education
[16] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/05/25/us/shooting-document.html
[17] https://icct.nl/publication/buffalo-attack-analysis-manifesto
[18] https://icct.nl/publication/buffalo-attack-analysis-manifesto
[19] https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/05/us/covenant-school-shooter-audrey-hale-writings
[20] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44186989]]></content:encoded>
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