Less Covid: merit of vaccines or spring?
Today I launch a series of articles “in pills” to inform you of the work done by the Study Group “Info – vax evidence based and strategies against Covid 19”.
Composed of doctors and researchers, the group addresses staff and health institutions and aims to:
– identify the best strategies to deal with the disease based on Evidence Based Medicine;
– open a scientific debate that also welcomes the contradictory;
– make “critical mass” by increasing awareness of diseases and how to prevent them. Click here to consult the site.
Today’s pill is well synthesized from the four tables you find next to it. How are we today compared to last year? Surprise: looking at deaths, hospitalizations and intensive care admissions there are no substantial differences. We see very similar curves (apart from the peak of deaths in March 2020), both for deaths and hospitalizations. Indeed, as observed: At the same weeks of each year, ICU admissions are more this year than last year, despite vaccinations and greater experience on care.
The virologist recognized it Anna Rita Gismondo, (here) and the same considerations were taken up by Giorgia Meloni during an episode of It’s not the Arena.
The data are obvious: SARS-Cov – 2 infection behaves like other respiratory diseases, rages in the cold months and improves until it subsides with the summer. It happened in 2020 (we talked about it more than a year ago with the epidemiologist Stefano Petti) but it is also occurring today.
Yet, on May 31, about the attenuation of Covid (and without remembering that even a year ago the same decline had emerged) the virologist Massimo Galli declared to the Courier:
“Mine is a pleased amazement because in Italy the numbers of the epidemic are in marked improvement, beyond the rosiest expectations”.
Galli is sure that the decrease in Covid cases is due to vaccinations: “the vaccination campaign has resulted in a breakthrough that will not be temporary. Vaccines are acting as a shield for deaths and hospitalizations, they have shifted the balance faster than I expected…”. Click here.
Denied a second time: despite vaccinations, throughout the month of April, hundreds of more hospitalizations were recorded in intensive care.
With these premises should we fear that the epidemic may resume in October? It can not be excluded but, for those who dedicate themselves to Evidence-Based Medicine, there are also reassuring clues: we will talk about it.