More Coverage of our Work on How Crime has Increased during the Biden Administration: The New York Post, NewsMax, The Daily Signal Podcast, Breitbart, PJ Media, and More
Our work pointing to the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey and that it shows that violent crime has increased under Biden has gotten significant news attention. Amusingly, ABC News has refused to respond to requests for comment from other news organizations. These are only parts of the news stories.
From the New York Post:
Violent crime has increased under the Harris-Biden administration, according to data from the Department of Justice published Friday — belying ABC News debate moderator David Muir’s correction of Donald Trump during his showdown with Kamala Harris Tuesday night
. . . The annual National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) showed total instances of reported violent crime — including rape, robbery and aggravated assault — is up from 5.6 per 1,000 in 2020 to 8.7 per 1,000 in 2023.
The highest recent rate of violent crime was in 2022, when the survey tracked 9.8 instances per 1,000 people over the age of 12.
The rate of rape increased from 1.2 per 1,000 in 2020 to 1.7 in 2023, while robbery went from 1.6 per 1,000 in 2020 to 2.6 per 1,000 in 2023, and aggravated assault rose from 2.9 per 1,000 in 2020 to 4.5 per 1,000 in 2023. . . .
John Lott, former Justice Department senior adviser for research and statistics, told The Post that there are multiple reasons the discrepancy between the FBI and DOJ numbers.
“There’s reasons why you could argue the number of crimes reported to police in the FBI data has gone down,” Lott said, pointing out that the number of law enforcement officers in cities like New York has “plummeted” over the past few years.
He added that the NCVS was set up decades ago to account for crimes that don’t get reported to the police.
“About 40% of violent crimes are reported to the police and about 30% of property crime are reported to police,” Lott went on, adding that the controversy boils down to a question of whether people care merely about reported crime, or “total crime.”
“My guess is people care more about total crime,” he said. . . .
From NewsMax:
Justice Department data released Thursday showed that there were 22.5 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in the U.S. during 2023. That finding was similar to the 2022 rate (23.5).
The rate of property victimization remained stable from 2022 to 2023 (102.2 victimizations per 1,000 households). In urban areas, the rate of property victimization increased from 176.1 per 1,000 households in 2022 to 192.3 per 1,000 last year.
The numbers for violent crime and property crime in 2023 were significantly higher than in 2020, the last year of the Trump administration. . . .
Crime Prevention Research Center President John R. Lott Jr. said the numbers indicate that crime has risen under Biden.
“Violent crime increased by 37% under the Biden administration, compared to a drop of 17% under the Trump administration,” Lott said, The Washington Times reported.
According to Lott in a breakdown of the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) datareleased Thursday, violent crime has soared under Biden-Harris.
“If you look at rape, robbery, and aggravated assaults (the NCVS doesn’t measure murder), between 2016 and 2020, violent crime fell by 15% under Trump and soared by 55% under Biden between 2020 and 2023,” Lott wrote.
“The year before they became president and then how it had changed by the either the end of Trump’s [presidency] or the latest year for Biden-Harris. Even if you take the starting period for Biden as 2019 or the five-year average before COVID because the numbers may have been artificially depressed during COVID, violent crime rose by 19%.
“Under Biden, rape soared by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assaults by 55%. . . .
Lott said less than half of police departments reported complete data to the FBI, the Times reported. . . .
Charlie McCarthy, “DOJ Data Indicates Crime Up Under Biden-Harris,” NewsMax, September 13, 2024.
From NewsMax:
According to Lott, in a breakdown of the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey data released Thursday, violent crime has soared under Biden-Harris.
“If you look at rape, robbery, and aggravated assaults (the NCVS doesn’t measure murder), between 2016 and 2020, violent crime fell by 15% under Trump and soared by 55% under Biden between 2020 and 2023,” Lott wrote. . . .
Staff, “Harris Will Make US ‘Crime-Ridden Hellhole’,” NewsMax, September 13, 2024.
From The Daily Signal Podcast:
The latest data out of the Crime Prevention Research Center has found that violent crime is up significantly in the past several years. . . .
From Breitbart:
Rape, robbery, and aggravated assault soared more than 40 percent under the Biden-Harris administration despite claims to the contrary, Justice Department data that the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) analyzed show.
The finding is significant because violent crime fell 15 percent under former President Donald Trump, according to the CPRC’s estimate.
Justice Department data found Thursday that violent crime soared under the Biden-Harris administration: Rape increased 42 percent, robbery rose 63 percent, and aggravated assault surged 55 percent, the CPRC reported:
The just-released data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’s National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) shows violent crime has soared under Biden-Harris. If you look at rape, robbery, and aggravated assaults (the NCVS doesn’t measure murder), between 2016 and 2020, violent crime fell by 15% under Trump and soared by 55% under Biden between 2020 and 2023. The year before they became president and then how it had changed by the either the end of Trump’s president or the latest year for Biden-Harris. Even if you take the starting period for Biden as 2019 or the five-year average before COVID because the numbers may have been artificially depressed during COVID, violent crime rose by 19% (see graph below).
Under Biden, rape soared by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assaults by 55%.
If you pick 2021 as the base year for comparison for Biden-Harris, though that makes them responsible for any changes that have already occurred during the first year of their presidency, the numbers are virtually unchanged, with the exception of aggravated assault, which is up much more under this measure. Violent crime is up 55%, rape up 42%, robbery up 53%, and aggravated assault up 67%.
Read the CPRC’s full report here.
From La Gaceta:
Pero, como nosotros y muchos otros hemos señalado, estas estadísticas del FBI son muy sospechosas. John R. Lott Jr., presidente del Centro de Investigación para la Prevención del Delito, escribió este mes que los informes del FBI son el producto de una caída drástica de los delitos denunciados. «Todas estas cifras son del análisis del FBI de los delitos denunciados, y como la aplicación de la ley ha colapsado, la tasa de delitos que no se denuncian ha aumentado», dijo. . .
Translation from Spanish.
But as we and many others have pointed out, these FBI statistics are highly suspect. John R. Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, wrote this month that the FBI reports are the product of a dramatic drop in reported crimes. “All of these numbers are from the FBI’s analysis of reported crimes, and as law enforcement has collapsed, the rate of crimes that are not reported has increased,” he said. . . .
MIKE GONZÁLEZ, “ABC, abanderada del arbitraje político sesgado,” La Gaceta, September 12, 2024.
From PJ Media:
Trump’s right, and you can get up to speed on the issue by watching my Adult in the Room Podcast discussion with the Crime Prevention Research Center’s John Lott below.
There’s more nuance in this assertion, however. . . .
The FBI doesn’t “rig” the stats per se, says Lott. Trump’s right that large cities with the worst crime stats aren’t reporting their whopping crime rates. Lott tells me that it’s true they don’t report, but the FBI has filler stats, if you will, that it includes on these cities behalf to guesstimate the crime rates. It’s not ideal. It’s not accurate. Indeed, the rates are skewed.
That’s bad enough but what is probably worse is that Americans in these high-crime cities have stopped reporting crimes. “We’ve known only about 42% of violent crimes [that] are reported,” he told me.
Lott notes that “only 32% of property crimes are reported to police.”
But that’s not all we know.
“For the last 50 years, we’ve had something called the National Crime Victimization Survey which surveys a whopping 240,000 people each year to try to get information on what happens to total crime reported and unreported,” he told the Adult in the Room Podcast.
“And what you find since 2020,” Lott explains, “this measure of total crime and the FBI’s measure of reported crime have gone in opposite directions.” . . .
From Hannity.com:
[Trump] was quickly “fact-checked” by debate moderator David Muir.
“President Trump, as you know, the FBI says overall violent crime is coming down in this country,” he said.
Now we’re learning that Trump’s initial claim was correct. . . .
The numbers indicate that crime has risen under Mr. Biden and fell during the Trump administration, said John R. Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, who has tracked the data over the years. . . .
From Your News:
CPRC President John R. Lott Jr. analyzed the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)data and reported that crimes such as rape, robbery, and aggravated assault have significantly increased under the current administration. Lott noted that between 2016 and 2020, violent crime dropped by 15% during Trump’s tenure but has surged by 55% between 2020 and 2023.
“Under Biden, rape soared by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assaults by 55%,” Lott wrote in his analysis.
Additionally, the NCVS survey, which reaches nearly a quarter-million people in 150,000 households annually, showed that many Americans are increasingly failing to report crimes to the police. For instance, in 2023, only 42% of robbery victims reported their experiences to law enforcement, compared to 64% in 2022.
Lott’s analysis also challenges recent FBI data, which suggested a decrease in crime rates. According to Lott, less than half of police departments provided complete data to the FBI, which may have skewed the findings. He points out that the FBI’s national crime database shows a 6.1% drop in homicides in 2022 from 2021, but this does not account for other forms of violent crime that were rising sharply during the same period. . . .
