More problems with crime numbers, Oakland greatly exaggerates drop in official crime numbers
As we have pointed out before, there are lots of problems with crime data from across the country. Now comes concern that the reported drop in crimes in Oakland, California might be about half what the city is claiming.
. . . Statistics published by the police department showed year-to-year crime had dropped by 33% overall by the end of April, a dramatic shift after last year’s spike. Mayor Sheng Thao praised the city for turning a corner. Gov. Gavin Newsom quoted the 33% figure in a news release touting Oakland’s partnership with the California Highway Patrol. The news spread through social media posts and optimistic headlines, including stories in the Chronicle.
But a new Chronicle review of Oakland police data finds that the city overstated the improvements actually seen on the streets. More troubling, the analysis found a persistent problem in the Citywide Weekly Crime Reports published by Oakland police, which compare incomplete year-to-date figures from the current year to complete year-to-date figures from past years.
As a result, these counts inevitably, and at all times, create the impression that Oakland’s crime trends — up or down — are better than reality.
Given currently available data, it isn’t possible to know just how much the 33% figure overestimated Oakland’s overall reported crime drop. A Chronicle analysis of Oakland’s underestimates in previous years suggests that though overall crime was almost certainly down in Oakland through April, that reduction may fall to 20%, possibly less, when the data is fully updated. . . .
