A Historical Comparison of the Collapse of Law Enforcement in US Cities. The Drop in Arrest Rates over the Last Few Years is without Precedent.

The drop in arrest rates over the last few years from 2020 to 2022 is without precedent, and that is particularly true for the largest cities. For cities with over 1 million people, the average arrest rate for reported violent crime fell from an average of 41% in the 25 years from 1996 to 2021 to 20.3% — a 50% drop. The lowest arrest rate in the preceding 24 years before COVID, between 1996 and 2019, was 32.6%. The arrest rate in 2022 was still 38% lower than the previous low rate.

The collapse in the arrest rate for property crime is even more dramatic. The average arrest rate for reported property crime fell from an average of 13% in the 25 years from 1996 to 2021 to 4.5% — a 64% drop. The lowest arrest rate in the preceding 24 years between 1996 and 2019 was 12%. The arrest rate in 2022 was still 61% lower than the previous low rate. The drop for reported larceny-theft, the largest type of property crime, is dramatic. It declines from an average arrest rate of 14.6% to just 3.8%. Given that property crimes are reported less than violent crimes, the effective arrest rate for all property crimes or all larceny-thefts is extremely low.

Remember all these numbers from the FBI and look at reported crimes, and the rate that crimes have gone unreported has increased, thus the effective drop in the arrest rate for total crime has increased. If there has been a simultaneous drop in the rate that criminals have been charged and prosecuted, as we believe, the rate of punishment has dropped even more.

The bottom line is that the collapse in law enforcement is even greater than these graphs indicate.

The drops across all cities is substantial, though not as large for the largest cities. For reported violent crime, the arrest rate fell by 21% in 2022 compared to the average during the 25 years from 1996 to 2020 (from 44.5% to 35.2%). For reported property crime, the arrest rate fell by 32% in 2022 compared to the average during the 25 years from 1996 to 2020 (from 17.5% to 11.9%).

The breakdown for the largest cities by type of violent crime and the largest category of property crime (larceny) is shown below. Clearly the arrest rates in 2022 are much lower than any previous year for all the different types of violent crimes.