At Real Clear Politics: Law Enforcement Collapse Masks Rising Crime Rates
Dr. John Lott has a new op-ed at Real Clear Politics.
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Law enforcement in the United States has collapsed. Americans in many parts of the country see that products at CVS, Walgreens, and Walmart stores are behind plexiglass, that you must call a clerk to unlock the glass and then wait while you read and examine the different packages. People know these companies have no choice. Americans know that crime is rising, but the true collapse in law enforcement, particularly in large cities, is without precedent.
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A Gallup survey last November showed that 92% of Republicans and even 58% of Democrats believed that crime was rising. In a series of surveys from March 2023 to April 2024, Rasmussen Reports finds a remarkably constant percentage of Americans who believe that violent crime is getting worse – 60% to 61%. Roughly four times as many people think violent crime is rising rather than getting better.
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But the collapse may be even greater than most people realize.
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FBI data shows arrest rates plummeted over the last few years, starting in 2020. For cities with over 1 million people, the arrest rate for reported violent crime averaged 41% in the 24 years from 1996 to 2019, but it dropped to 20.3% in 2022 – a 50% drop. The lowest arrest rate in the preceding 24 years before COVID-19 was 32.6%. That is still 61% higher than the rate in 2022.
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The arrest rate for murder fell by 37%, rape by 58%, robbery by 50%, and aggravated assault by 54%.
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The collapse in the arrest rate for property crime is even more dramatic. The average arrest rate for reported property crime fell from an average of 13% in the 25 years from 1996 to 2021 to 4.5% – a 64% drop. The lowest arrest rate in the preceding 24 years between 1996 and 2019 was 12%. The arrest rate in 2022 was still 61% lower than the previous low rate. The drop in reported larceny theft, the largest property crime category, is dramatic. It declines from an average arrest rate of 14.6% to just 3.8% – a 75% drop.
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But things are even worse than these numbers indicate. All these numbers are from the FBI’s look at reported crimes, and as law enforcement has collapsed, the rate at which crimes have gone unreported has increased. Thus, the effective drop in the arrest rate for crime is even greater than these already stark numbers show. Since property crimes are reported less often than violent crimes, the effective arrest rate for all property crimes or all larceny thefts is extremely low.
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The number of reported crimes has fallen for other reasons. Over the past few years, as the number of police has fallen because of cuts in budgets and a slew of retirements, police departments nationwide – from Charlottesville and Henrico County, Virginia, to Chicago, to Olympia, Washington – stopped responding to non-emergency 911 calls. Instead of police coming out, people can still go to the police station.
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If you look at arrests as a percentage of all crime (reported and unreported), in these large cities only 8% of all violent crime and 1% of all property crime results in an arrest.
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In addition, if there has been a simultaneous drop in the rate at which criminals have been charged and prosecuted, as we have seen with many progressive prosecutors, the punishment rate has dropped even more.
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In her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, Kamala Harris claimed she was a tough-on-crime prosecutor. But she has absolutely no criticism of law enforcement in these Democrat-controlled large cities.
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Despite what the Democrats and the news media keep claiming, the Bureau of Justice Statistics measure of total crime (reported and unreported) has soared under the Biden-Harris administration. The Democrats and the news media only cite the FBI count of reported crime, despite more than half of police departments either not reporting any data or reporting only partial data to the FBI.
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But here is the puzzle: Even if Democrats and the news media want to rely solely on the FBI, the FBI data shows the arrest rates plummeting to unprecedented levels. How can they then ignore the collapse of law enforcement? Why is it surprising that crime rates are rising?
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John R. Lott Jr. is president of the Crime Prevention Research Center. He served as senior adviser for research and statistics in the Office of Justice Programs and the Office of Legal Policy at the Justice Department
