At the Missoulian: How Montana’s vote could shape our future

Montana may determine whether Democrats radically transform the United States.

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Should voter IDs be banned?

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Restore voting rights to felons convicted of violent crimes like murder and rape?

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That illegal aliens should have a pathway to citizenship?

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Statehood for D.C. and Puerto Rico?

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Restructure the Supreme Court?

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Ban state right-to-work laws?

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Protect abortion nationwide up until the moment of birth?

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End private health insurance and replace it with Medicare?

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Ban semi-automatic rifles?

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Those are all positions Vice President Kamala Harris has taken. If Democrat Jon Tester wins re-election to the Senate, polls indicate the Senate will very likely be tied 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans. If Harris wins the presidency, and she currently leads in the pollsand the betting odds, Tim Walz will be vice president and will vote to break ties. Democrats will control the Senate.

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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York has promised to eliminate the filibuster, and he would have the unanimous support of Senate Democrats to do just that. News headlines warn: “Chuck Schumer outlines 2025 agenda if Democrats sweep, eying filibuster changes.” When Democrats previously tried to end the filibuster, Tester joined 47 other Democrats in voting. It failed only because Senators Kristin Sinema (AZ) and Joe Manchin (WV) voted “no.”

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As Schumer warned in August, “We got up to 48. Sinema and Manchin voted no; that’s why we couldn’t change the rules. Well, they’re both gone.” Schumer is promising the filibuster will be gone. Harris, who was the most liberal U.S. senator, also supports ending the filibuster.

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Election betting odds have almost two-to-one odds of Democrats also taking control of the House.

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All these bills can pass with Democrat control of the Senate, House of Representatives, and presidency and eliminating the filibuster. Democrats have been known for their unity, but without Sinema and Manchin, who occasionally bucked their party, there would be even less dissent.

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Since no party has at least 60 seats in the Senate, the filibuster’s 60-vote requirement ensures some bipartisanship to get anything passed. It keeps the country from going extremes.

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While voters support government-issued photo IDs for voting by a 74%-to-20% margin and even Democrats by 59%-to-33%, Democrat members of Congress and the Senate will vote unanimously to eliminate them. The filibuster prevents such radical legislation from passing.

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With changes in the voting rules, vote fraud will be more common. With D.C. and Puerto Rico getting statehood, four Senate seats and six more House seats mean Democrats will keep control of the Senate and possibly the House for years.

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But eliminating the filibuster isn’t even necessary for many spending and tax changes. For example, Democrats promise a tax on unrealized capital gains for wealthy people. Montana’s property values have risen dramatically over the last few years. Imagine if your house increased in value from $200,000 to $400,000. A 25% tax on the increased value means you must send a $50,000 check to the federal government even before you sell your house. If you want to drive investment out of the United States, this is a sure-fire way.

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Republicans look certain to flip Joe Manchin’s West Virginia Senate seat, which will leave the Senate tied at 50-50. But a Vice President Walz would still give Democrats control of the Senate. Tim Sheehy needs to beat Tester in November for Republicans to prevent Democrats from controlling the Senate and ending the filibuster.

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The next most vulnerable Democrat Senate seat is Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, but Brown is ahead of his Republican opponent by five percentage points.

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Sen. Tester has already voted with Schumer on the filibuster. Montana may well determine whether the U.S. moves toward radical change.

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John R. Lott, Jr., “How Montana’s vote could shape our future,” Missoulian, September 10, 2024.