And so, the usual cycle plays out: armed civilian stops active shooter, media steps in (if it even reports it at all) to remind us that the “good guy with a gun” is a myth.
Is it, though? CNN cites ALERRT, which provides the FBI with its data. According to these figures, good guys with guns stopped only 4.4% of shooting incidents in recent years. According to economist John Lott, who runs the non-profit Crime Prevention Research Center, the number is at least 34.4%. Lott contends that errors in reporting and classification keep the FBI’s statistics artificially low.
Lott’s case is convincing, and you can judge it for yourself here. At any rate, it’s unlikely anyone in that mall was second-guessing Dicken’s choice to stay strapped. Perhaps Dicken’s sensible, responsible risk mitigation would be more palatable if we explained it with a metaphor: think of the gunman as one of the unvaxxed, spewing COVID cooties at innocent bystanders, until our hero courageously draws his N-95 mask …
John Lott, head of the Crime Prevention Research Center, has done it again: his latest survey reveals that the number of registered voters now carrying a concealed firearm at least some of the time has tripled in just the last six years. How this might impact the upcoming presidential election was not addressed, but other data from his study prove that the Second Amendment is alive and well in America and could be a factor next November.
Most of the media predictably avoided saying much about his study, but those that did focused on one statistic: the number of permit holders declined last year. Fox News, to its credit, tried to correct the misimpression:
“The number of concealed carry permit holders in the U.S. dropped slightly this year, but the number of Americans carrying a concealed firearm has likely increased overall due to more than half of U.S. states enacting laws that do not require eligible residents to obtain a permit, according to the author of a new study examining gun data. . . .“
That makes perfect sense. As more and more states go “constitutional carry” (i.e., “permitless carry”) why would someone want a permit? A small number would no doubt like to have a permit so they can legally carry in “reciprocal” states, but the rest are free to carry without a permit.
Still, the numbers are staggering, and most encouraging to those in the freedom fight who know how important an armed private citizenry is as a bulwark against confiscation and tyranny.
First, the “decline” is a rounding error. Lott’s study indicated a decline of less than 0.5 percent in the number of those with permits, and he admits that his data isn’t as reliable as he would like it to be.
Second, other factors must be considered in that minimal decline, i.e., the deaths of existing permit holders and inflation putting the cost of a firearm out of reach for some (particularly those in the inner cities, where gun violence is the most rampant and where present gun laws make it nearly impossible for law-abiding citizens to arm themselves). Complacency could also be a factor because of several recent victories of gun owners’ rights over the ATF’s war against them.
Here is more of the good news from Lott’s study:
— The United States unofficially became a “constitutional carry” nation this year after Alabama, Florida, and Nebraska enacted permitless carry laws;
— There are an estimated 22 million Americans with active concealed carry permits;
— One in every 10 U.S. adults now holds a concealed carry permit;
— Women, Asians, and blacks “are increasingly turning to gun ownership,” according to Lott;
— More than 15 percent of general election voters carry a concealed firearm at least part of time, up from just 5 percent who did so in 2017;
— “Permit holders are convicted of any type of firearms-related violations at about 1/12th the rate that police officers are convicted … and police officers are convicted at about 1/20th the rate of the general population … [thus] permit holders are virtually never convicted of firearms-related violations”;
— While the number of permit holders has exploded over the past few years, violent crime, on average, has declined;
— Gun sales “have exploded since 2020, surging to the highest level in a decade”; and
— “Due to old and missing data, 21.8 million is undoubtedly an underestimate of the total number of Americans with permits.” . . .
“It is very likely that any place that allows people to carry a concealed handgun will have someone carrying their gun,” said a new report shared with Secrets from John R. Lott’s Crime Prevention Research Center.
Lott has long followed the explosion in government-issued concealed carry permits. His 74-page report said that the percentage of people carrying guns rose from 5.4% in 2017 to 15.6% today.
Overall, he said, there are 21.8 million permits issued. That’s a decrease of 0.5% from last year.
But that’s not bad news for proponents of the Second Amendment and concealed carry laws.
Lott explained that the leveling off of permits is likely due to the surge in states that now allow citizens to carry their handguns without a permit. The growth of so-called constitutional carry states has reached 27 and is the biggest story in the gun world.
“In other words, people in those 27 states are allowed to carry concealed handguns without permits, representing 65% of the land in the country and 44% of the population in 2022,” his report said. “It is clear that more people are legally carrying.”
“What does this mean in practice? It means that in most places where people are allowed to carry a concealed handgun, there will be someone carrying a concealed handgun. If the probability that any one person has a concealed handgun permit is 5.4%, in a room with 10 people, the probability that at least one person will have a permitted concealed handgun is 43%. In a room with 20 people, that probability goes up to 67%. With 40, that probability rises to 89%,” the report said.
The growth follows the surge in violent crime and increase in gun ownership in America, where for the first time a majority say that they live in gun-owning homes. The state permitting data his team reviewed found that black permitting is up 223%, Asian 163%, and women 23%.
He also said that in states where there is a high number of concealed carriers, crime is down. . . .
More people are packing thanks to constitutional carry: “If you want to reduce crime, you have to make it clear that the likely victims of crime will be carrying.” So says John Lott, who, as president of the Crime Prevention Resource Center and the author of the bestselling More Guns, Less Crime, has done more than perhaps any single American to ensure that proponents of the Second Amendment are armed with the facts. Those facts continue to evolve, too, and in an encouraging direction for Liberty. For example, a new study by Lott indicates that more than half of the states now allow constitutional carry — that is, the right of residents to carry a concealed firearm without a permit. He estimates that 8.4% of American adults now have concealed-carry permits. Criminals tend to go where the guns aren’t, but the American people are growing increasingly tired of being at the mercy of those criminals. As The Washington Times reports, “With the addition this year of Alabama, Florida and Nebraska, 27 states now allow concealed carry without a permit.” As Lott notes, “What that means is it’s a lot less costly, a lot less difficult, for people to carry, and that primarily impacts poor people that live in high-crime urban areas,” adding that these lower barriers mean more racial minorities and women are carrying in high-crime urban areas. If his theory holds, this reality should help reduce crime in the places that need it most.
Robert Card apparently picked two gun-free zones to do his attack. The picture here is from 2021.
The sign for Just-in-Time Bowling Alley, located at 24 Mollison Way, Lewiston, ME 04240, reads: “We kindly ask that you refrain from bringing firearms in this building and we would appreciate it if you left them in your vehicle. Please keep our atmosphere family friendly.” Card murdered seven people (one woman and six men) there. We are working to get a higher-definition picture of the sign.
The bowling alley where Robert Card allegedly shot and killed 7 people has a sign on the front door announcing the premises are gun free.
The location, formerly called Sparetime Recreation, is now called Just-in-Time Bowling Alley.
John Lott Jr.’s Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) noted that the sign says, “We kindly ask that you refrain from bringing firearms in this building and we would appreciate it if you left them in your vehicle. Please keep our atmosphere family friendly.”
Card allegedly shot and killed one woman and six men inside the gun-free bowling alley on Wednesday night.
CPRC pointed out that only “about 6% of the mass public shootings occur in places where guns are allowed.” Gun-free zones and far and away attackers’ favorite places to strike. . . .
The FBI had reported that only 4.6% of attacks were stopped by civilians. However, according to CPRC president John R. Lott Jr, at least 35.7% of those attacks were stopped by civilians.
In 2022 alone, that figure is 41.3%, and excluding gun-free zones, it averaged higher than 63.5%.
Well, it turns out that, as in all states that allow open or concealed carry, individual establishments may ask that people who enter disarm themselves before doing so. In the case of the Maine shooting, at least one of the locations the killer attacked politely required people to disarm themselves before entering. . . .
Moreover, while Democrats can never take their eyes off mass deaths, the reality is that when ordinary citizens are armed, the rate of deaths due to violent crime drops. That’s the whole point of John R. Lott’s excellent More Guns Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws. . . .
The last few years have seen record numbers of gun sales, and thus record numbers of federally mandated background checks conducted through the FBI’s National Instant Background Check System (“NICS”). The FBI performed about 28 million such NICS checks in 2019, while last year that number jumped to nearly 40 million.
Each year, the FBI denies somewhere around 100,000 would-be firearm purchases — a statistic that the FBI is always proud to report. Those on the anti-gun Left, in turn, often tout this ever-increasing number of persons who have been denied the purchase of a firearm since implementation of the Brady Act on November 30, 1998. Through October 31, 2021, that number now exceeds two million NICS denials.
Gun control advocates point to this figure as proof positive that the NICS system works at stopping criminals from getting their hands on firearms. But their flawed assumption is that those who are denied by NICS are actually prohibited persons — something that is far from the case.
Notably, Second Amendment researcher and economist John Lott has claimed that as many as 99 percent of NICS denials are actually false positives — meaning the person denied is not actually a prohibited person.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Department of Justice tries to paint an entirely different picture, claiming that the FBI’s denial accuracy rate is between 99.3 and 99.8 percent — which, if true, would mean that almost no one is wrongly denied. Yet just about every week, GOA hears from its members and supporters who have been wrongly denied when attempting to purchase a firearm, and so the FBI’s claim seems suspect. . . .
Crime researcher Dr. John Lott said Israel allowed private gun ownership specifically to help cover possible terrorist targets, as country loosens gun restrictions in order to arm citizenry.
“In 1972, what happened was Israel realized that they simply couldn’t cover all the possible targets,” said Lott on WBT Charlotte’s “The Vince Coakley Radio Program.” “And so they started to allow civilians to be able to go and carry guns.”
“And over the decades, you’ve had as high as 12 or 14 percent of the adult Jewish population being able to go and carry guns for protection.”
In response to last week’s terrorist attacks by Hamas on Israel, the country announced an “emergency operation” to arm more citizens.
“Today I directed the Firearms Licensing Division to go on an emergency operation, in order to allow as many citizens as possible to arm themselves,” National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted on X, former Twitter. “The plan will take effect within 24 hours.”
That follows a measure in January of this year to loosen gun restrictions following attacks by Palestinians in Jerusalem.
Following Hamas’ attacks last week, the Wall Street Journal reported by the Mefalsim kibbutz, in which private citizens with guns protected themselves against the Hamas terrorists.
“No Mefalsim residents were killed or taken hostage, protected by a dozen residents, many of them former Israeli soldiers, who had prepared for years to defend the kibbutz,” reported the Journal.
Lott, a former official in the U.S. Justice Department, is founder of the Crime Prevention Research Center. He is the former chief economist at the United States Sentencing Commission and holds a Ph.D. in economics from UCLA. Lott has authored ten books, including, “More Guns, Less Crime.”
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