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Our research at Real Clear Investigations on the “Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats” continues to get a lot of media attention.
A Crime Spike Revealed
John Lott writes for RealClearInvestigations:
When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.
But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults… It’s been over three weeks since the FBI released the revised data. The Bureau’s lack of acknowledgment or explanation about the significant change concerns researchers.
“I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” Carl Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary who specializes in studying crime, told RealClearInvestigations. “There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data.”
… The FBI did not respond to RCI’s repeated requests for comment.
James Freeman, “Let Bibi be Bibi,” Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2024.
The FBI quietly revised the U.S. crime statistics to show an increase in violent crime.
An investigation by RealClearInvestigations found that the FBI updated its 2022 crime statistics in September, showing that rather than a 2.1% drop in violent crime as originally reported, the United States actually experienced a 4.5% rise in violent crime. The new dataset showed thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.
The more than 6 percentage point change is unprecedented in recent FBI statistic reporting, William & Mary professor Carl Moody told the outlet.
“I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” he said. “There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data.”
The only announcement of the change was a single footnote in the 2023 crime statistic report, where the agency acknowledged, “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.”
“It is up to the FBI to explain what they have done, and they haven’t explained these large changes,” Justec Research President Thomas Marvell added.
The FBI’s September press release doesn’t note the change in crime statistics.
According to crimeresearch.org, the revised FBI statistics show a net increase of 1,699 more murders, 7,780 more rapes, 33,459 more robberies, and 37,091 more aggravated assaults from 2021 to 2022. Some figures from 2021 were decreased.
The increase was recorded despite the fact that data still weren’t collected from some of the most violent precincts. . . .
President Trump has frequently lashed out against the rise in violent crime in the United States throughout the most of his third campaign for office, linking high-profile murders to the millions of new immigrants who have entered the nation in the last two years. Both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have responded by disputing his description of crime, helped along by mainstream media that has, far too frequently, refuted Trump’s claims that violent crime is declining year. According to the FBI, that proved to be untrue.
RealClearPolitics initially reported on a “stealth edit” performed by Bureau officials in their 2022–September 2023 crime figures, which initially indicated a 2.1% decrease in violent crime during that time. According to an FBI data released on Wednesday, violent crime increased by 4.5% during that period, supporting President Trump and the families of murder victims who believe a safe southern border could have prevented their loved ones from dying. The dramatic adjustment was not mentioned by the FBI public relations staff in a press statement last month.
The new numerals don’t stand out right away, even if one knew where to look. According to reporter John R. Lott Jr., he was initially drawn to the mysterious statement, “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023,” in an FBI online update. He wrote that downloading the most recent data and comparing it to the previously provided data—which has since been deleted—was the only way to see the difference. . . .
Dr. John Lott Published Revised FBI Numbers Showing Rising Crime Rates
“Basically what happened was that before they (the FBI) had claimed that violent crime had fallen in 2022 by about 2.1 percent, but when you looked at the new data that they had it had gone up by 4.5 percent, and that’s a pretty significant change,” began Dr. Lott.
Dr. Lott provided more updated national crime numbers.
“Here we’re talking about,” he said. “A net change of over 80,000 violent crimes. We’re talking about a change of 1,699 murders in one year. We’re talking about over 7,000 rapes, over 33,000 robberies, over 37,000 aggravated assaults, and 198,000 property crimes, including 54,000 motor vehicle thefts.”
The Federal Bureau of Investigation has updated its recent crime data reports that initially showed that violent crime rates in the U.S. had dropped after it was revealed that thousands of violent crimes had not been added to the total.
According to Real Clear Investigations, the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, which showed that violent crime in the U.S. fell by 2.1%. This data has been used by political candidates such as Vice President Harris in September to demonstrate to voters that she and President Biden’s administration have been tough on crime over the last four years. However, the bureau’s announcement on Wednesday added previously missed crimes to the report; violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%, as the latest numbers for 2022 show that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were also 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 violent assaults added.
“Today’s new data submitted to the FBI confirms that our dedicated efforts and collaborative partnerships with law enforcement are working; Americans are safer now than when we took office. Last year, we saw the largest ever one-year decrease in the homicide rate, which now stands 16 percent below its 2020 level. Violent crime is at a near 50-year low. Our progress is continuing this year and builds on substantial decreases during the previous years of our administration,” the White House claimed in a statement in September.
RCI spoke to William & Mary crime professor Carl Moody about the updated report, who said, “I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022. There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020 there were small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data.” . . .
On October 16, 2024, Real Clear Investigations noted:
When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.
But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.
The updated FBI data for 2022 shows there were 1,699 more murders than originally reported, 7,780 more rapes, over 33,000 more robberies, and over 37,000 more aggravated assaults.
Professor Carl Moody, crime researcher at the College of William & Mary, observed the FBI has not had to correct crime reports to this degree at any other time during the 21st century. . . .
Real Clear Investigations reports the FBI recently updated its crime database and, like in the state of Connecticut, there was more violent crime than was initially reported.
The FBI claimed crime had decreased year-over-year when it first released the completed crime data for the year 2022. Now, the FBI is reporting that overall violent crime increased by 4%. . . .
Now we learn that the FBI is finally catching up with its backlogged data, and new metrics are being reported. At Real Clear Investigations they noted a very quietly entered notation in the 2023 report saying simply the stats from the previous year had been updated. That becomes a heavy euphemism when you see the new numbers.
Where the initial report had the violent crime rate in the U.S. dipping by -2.1%, the updated numbers show a stark change – violent crime is now shown to have increased by 4.5%. This represents a stark change, and yet the FBI has made no other public announcement about this revision, and the press is content to continue to push its preferred narrative, seemingly resting on the older reports from The Bureau. . . .
Brad Slager, “We Are Proven Correct,” Townhall, October 18, 2024.
David Mastio of the Kansas City Starreached out to the FBI’s press office, asking about RealClearInvestigations‘ scoop that the bureau quietly revised the 2022 crime statistics, “releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5 percent. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.” As Mastio notes, in late September, USA Today reported that “violent crime in the United States declined for the third straight year in 2023,” citing those same FBI statistics.
RealClearInvestigations said the FBI did not respond to RCI’s repeated requests for comment . . . which is bad. When someone notices a discrepancy in the released statistics, the bureau can’t just ignore inquiries it finds inconvenient. . . .
First and foremost, credit must be given where it’s due. John R. Lott Jr., of RealClearInvestigations, was the first to discover and break the news. As he explained, the FBI originally released its “final” crime data for 2022 in September of 2023. At the time, it was reported that the overall violent crime rate had fallen by 2.1%. The Bureau dropped numbers in an October 16, 2023, press release, extolling a 6.1% drop in murders and a 5.4% drop in rapes compared to the previous year – remember this announcement, as it will become relevant soon enough. The Democratic Party and the left-wing media quickly seized it as a talking point. And why shouldn’t they? If true, it certainly makes it seem like the Biden-Harris administration had been cleaning up the streets, so to speak. . . .
The update shows that there were actually 80,029 more violent crimes reported to the FBI in 2022 than in 2021. This includes an increase of 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. So, rather than decreasing by 2.1% in 2022, violent crime increased by 4.5% – a total discrepancy of 6.6%! Now, remember that detailed announcement in 2023? Here’s how the Bureau let everyone know that it had fixed an error in the most recent press release: “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” After numbers like that … nothing?
Indeed, even the media continued the lie. As Lott explained in his report, a USA Today headline – published after the update – read: “Violent crime dropped for third straight year in 2023, including murder and rape.” CNN also ran a deceptive story that completely ignored this change. “New FBI statistics show continued drop in US crime in first six months of 2024,” read the September 30 headline. “Crime in the United States dropped throughout the first six months of 2024, according to preliminary figures released Monday by the FBI, continuing a trend in falling crime rates the bureau recently noted for 2023,” the introductory line reads. The self-declared “most trusted name in news” then went on to detail the drop in 2023 numbers over the previous year, but didn’t once mention 2022 directly or the amended stats at all. As Lott put it at the time his article was published, “It’s been over three weeks since the FBI released the revised data. The Bureau’s lack of acknowledgement or explanation about the significant change concerns researchers.” . . .
El FBI retocó, en secreto, los datos de robos, violaciones y asesinatos de 2022. Así lo reveló una pesquisa de RealClear Investigations (RCI), que descubrió que en vez de una caída del 2,1% en crímenes violentos, hubo un aumento del 4,5%.
En septiembre de 2023, la agencia reportó que el año anterior había cerrado con una caída de más de dos puntos en los crímenes violentos. La cifra fue usada desde entonces por la campaña demócrata como evidencia de los logros en materia de seguridad de la Administración Biden-Harris.
Un año más tarde, sin embargo, el FBI corrigió estos números. Aunque no lo anunció más que con unas escuetas palabras en un pie de página: “La tasa de delitos violentos de 2022 se ha actualizado para su inclusión en CIUS, 2023”. Aquellas despertaron las sospechas del RCI. Al descargar los nuevos datos, notaron el cambio: un aumento del 4,5% en crímenes violentos.
Tras el ajuste, los registros cuentan con 1.699 más asesinatos, 33.459 más robos, 7.780 más violaciones y 37.091 más agresiones con agravantes. En total: 80.029 delitos violentos que habían quedado bajo la alfombra.
El analista John R. Lott Jr, autor del estudio, sostuvo que sus hallazgos plantean cuestiones sobre las metodologías de recopilación de datos, pero remarcó que nada parece justificar estos incrementos “dramáticos”. El mejor ejemplo, explicó, son los asesinatos. A pesar de ser un crimen del que suele haber un registro confiable, porque la mayoría se reportan, “los datos revisados para 2021 y 2022 muestran un aumento neto de 1.699 asesinatos”, sostuvo. “¿Cómo se les escapan 1.699 asesinatos?”. . . .
John Lott — president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former Justice Department senior adviser for research and statistics — in a Wednesday piece for Real Clear Investigations documented how the FBI’s recently released revised data for 2022 showed violent crime increased by 4.5 percent over the previous year. . . .
Randy DeSoto, “Tump was Right,” The Western Journal, October 16, 2024.
John R. Lott, a respected researcher who wrote the article, notes that “while the FBI claims that serious violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took office, the NCVS numbers show that total violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% during Biden’s term. Since the NCVS started, the largest previous increase over three years was 27% in 2006, so the increase under Biden was slightly more than twice as large.” . . .
