Philly Fed Explodes Higher, Bucks Regional Survey Slump

Against expectations of a modest rebound, Philly Fed Business Outlook survey spiked from a revised 2.4 to 17.0 (crushing expectations of 3.8).

The 17.0 print is more than double the highest analyst estimate of 8.0.

This explosion in the Philly Fed survey reverses the recent trend of regional Fed survey collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood:

• Jan. prices paid rose to 22.1 vs 15.9

• New orders rose to 18.2 vs 11.1

• Employment rose to 19.3 vs 16.8

• Shipments rose to 23.4 vs 15.7

• Delivery time fell to -0.4 vs 12.5

• Inventories fell to -2.3 vs 5.0

• Prices received rose to 14.7 vs 11.0

• Unfilled orders fell to -3.7 vs 8.6

• Average workweek fell to 5.2 vs 8.5

Additionally, hope has resurged…

• Six-month outlook rose to 38.4 vs 34.8

• Six-month outlook for capex rose to 32.9 vs 26.0

Outlier or new (asset-bubble-driven) normal?