CPRC in the News: The Federalist, Hot Air (2), Bearing Arms, Ammoland, and More
John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, has extensively studied the global phenomenon of mass violence. Lott’s research debunks the common misconception that America leads the world in mass shootings or school violence. “While the U.S. had about 4.5 percent of the world’s population during this period, it had just 2.9 percent of the public mass shootings — or even less, since our non-U.S. data is surely missing many cases,” according to Lott and his co-author Carlisle E. Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary who researches the economics of crime.
According to their extensive data analysis, many countries have a higher per capita rates of mass shootings. However, media bias obscures these facts, propagating a skewed and politically expedient narrative that singles out America and guns as uniquely culpable.
Are there countries in Europe with less gun violence than the United States? Yes, but according to Lott’s analysis, when Lott and team looked at data from 89 countries, the United States ranked 58th, and even lower for its murder rate (62nd). In fact, many so-called peer countries — including Finland, Norway, and Switzerland — have higher per capita rates of murder from mass public shootings, a rate up to 45 percent higher than the United States, in direct contradiction to the assertions made by Watts and Everytown. Because these countries have more stringent firearm regulations than the United States, Lott’s analysis calls into question the efficacy of more stringent firearms regulations in reducing mass public shootings. . . .
Conservatives (and pro-Second-Amendment liberals, and yes, they do exist) frequently say “a good guy with gun beats a bad guy with a gun”.
The left poo-poohs that saying.
But new evidence shows the conservatives are right; civilians with firearms are disproportionately effective at stopping spree killings. . . .
John R. Lott Jr.’s book, “More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws,” has long been a lightning rod in the debate over firearms and public safety. The third edition, published in 2010, builds on his earlier research with an expanded dataset and fresh analysis. It nevertheless reinforces his argument that right-to-carry (RTC) laws – which permit individuals to carry concealed weapons – reduce violent crime.
When Lott began his research in the 1990s, only 18 states had such laws. By 2025, that number had surged to 42.
Lott’s original study, conducted with David Mustard, analyzed crime statistics from 1977 to 1992 and found a correlation between RTC laws and declining violent crime rates. The second edition extended this analysis to 28 states, and the third edition broadens the scope further – covering 29 years (1977–2005) and 40 states – providing a wealth of new data to examine.
This vast dataset strengthens his conclusions, showing consistent reductions in violent crime where concealed carry is legal. Beyond confirming his earlier findings, the new edition explores additional gun policies, such as the Castle Doctrine – which removes the duty to retreat before using a gun in self-defense – and the federal assault weapons ban that lasted from 1994 to 2004.
One of the most striking aspects of Lott’s work is its resilience in the face of criticism. He acknowledges the fierce political battles surrounding gun control, and expresses surprise at the hostility directed at his research.
Despite accusations of flawed methodology, bias or selective data, Lott maintains that his findings are robust. He makes his data publicly available and emphasizes that no peer-reviewed study has ever found that RTC laws increase crime.
Critics argue that his results are sensitive to statistical methods or that criminals might shift to other crimes if victims are armed. However, Lott counters that while property crimes like auto theft and larceny rise slightly, the overall decline in violent crime – including murders, rapes and aggravated assaults – far outweighs these effects.
The numbers are compelling. According to Lott’s research, RTC laws lead to an eight percent drop in murders; a five percent reduction in rapes; and a seven percent decrease in aggravated assaults. These figures represent thousands of lives saved and countless injuries prevented.
Additionally, the data refutes common concerns about guns increasing suicides or domestic violence. While accidental gun deaths rise marginally, the change is statistically insignificant. Moreover, there is no evidence linking concealed carry laws to higher suicide or domestic violence rates.
Beyond direct crime reduction, Lott highlights the deterrent effect of armed citizens. Criminals are less likely to target potential victims who may be armed, leading to fewer violent encounters. This is particularly evident in the decline of multiple-victim public shootings after RTC laws are enacted. . . .
The Trump administration has shown how easy it was to close the border. Just Do It. We always hear that illegals commit less crime than Americans. The latest report from the Crime Prevention Research Center based on statistics from the Department of Justice proves that homicide rates are 13 times higher among illegals than citizens.
In the aftermath of tragedies like this, the focus often shifts to gun control. But this narrow lens ignores the root cultural and psychological conditions behind violent acts. As noted in More Guns, Less Crime by Dr. John Lott, responsible gun ownership has been linked with decreased crime rates in areas where moral standards and law enforcement cooperation remain high. Disarming citizens without addressing mental illness, moral decay, and broken institutional frameworks only treats the symptom, not the disease. By the way, FSU is a gun free zone.
Real-world experience with that has proven exactly the opposite. Just as gun prohibitionists in the early days of permitted carry predicted “Dodge City/blood in the streets” carnage which not only never materialized but instead proved a beneficial deterrent to crime (findings by John Lott of the Crime Prevention Resource Center show “ Civilians with permits stopped [active shooter] attacks more frequently and faced a lower risk of being killed or injured than police”) permitless carry is likewise proving to make society safer. Case in point, in my home state, Ohio, “a study has found that gun crime rates have decreased in six of the eight largest cities in the state” since the law was passed seven months ago. . . .
Dr. John Lott’s Crime Prevention Research Center (CRPC) followed up on the AfD-related gun license revocations in Saxony-Anhalt and reports that an administrative court in Magdeburg has dismissed lawsuits by AfD members and former members seeking to overturn the license revocations. The CPRC cites a March 28 newspaper article indicating that the court ruled “that the plaintiffs lacked the legal standing under firearms law because they were AfD members or had supported the party. The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is an association that works against the constitutional order in Germany. The reason for this is the classification of the state association as confirmed right-wing extremist by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.” . . .
But new evidence shows the conservatives are right; civilians with firearms are disproportionately effective at stopping spree killings. John Petrolino at our sister publication Bearing Arms:
Dr. John R. Lott, Jr. from the Crime Prevention Research Center and Dr. Carlisle E. Moody, Professor of Economics, Emeritus from College of William and Mary, aggregated the data. Their paper, “Do Armed Civilians Stop Active Shooters More Effectively Than Uniformed Police?” was released on April 3.
Not only are civilians effective; according to the paper, they are at least incrementally more effective than law enforcement: . . .
John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, has extensively studied the global phenomenon of mass violence. Lott’s research debunks the common misconception that America leads the world in mass shootings or school violence. “While the U.S. had about 4.5 percent of the world’s population during this period, it had just 2.9 percent of the public mass shootings — or even less, since our non-U.S. data is surely missing many cases,” according to Lott and his co-author Carlisle E. Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary who researches the economics of crime. According to their extensive data analysis, many countries have a higher per capita rates of mass shootings. However, media bias obscures these facts, propagating a skewed and politically expedient narrative that singles out America and guns as uniquely culpable. . . .
