Trump Administration Decision Not to Criminally Prosecute Licensed Dealers who Sell Handguns to 18, 19, and 20 Year Olds. Showing that the Victimization Rate for Murder and Rape is Higher for 18 to 20 Year Olds than 21 to 23 Year Olds. That is Relevant if a Gun Ban Primarily Disarms Law-abiding People Relative to Criminals.

Source:

Gun control advocates have condemned the Justice Department’s decision to stop criminally enforcing the nearly 60-year-old federal ban on licensed dealers selling handguns to law-abiding 18-, 19-, and 20-year-olds. Saying it will cause the loss of life. “That’s because young Americans are disproportionately likely to commit gun violence,” claims the GIFFORDS Center’s Executive Director Emma Brown.

It is true that those in the 18, 19, and 20 year old age group commits murder at a higher rate than those 21 to 24, the problem is that a gun ban is likely to disproportionately disarm law-abiding 18, 19, and 20 year olds compared to gang members and other criminals. If so, you would have a drop in self-defense with a relatively small change in crimes like murder.

The data below breaks down the murder and rape victimization rates.

In 2024, according to the CDC WONDER underlying cause of death; injury intent Homicide, there were 1,670 murders of those 18, 19, and 20 years old compared to 1,559 for those 21 to 23. That means that there were 7.12% more murders for those in the younger age group. If one adjusts for the population of the two groups, it still remains at 7%.

In 2024, according to the FBI Crime Data Explorer, 2024 national NIBRS master file there were 11,602 reported rapes for those 18, 19, and 20 years old compared to 8,799 for those 21 to 23. That means that there were 31.86% more reported rapes for those in the younger age group.

CDC WONDER underlying cause of death; injury intent Homicide; U.S. residents; all sexes, races, mechanisms and states; deaths in 2024.
Age Homicide deaths Population Rate per 100,000
< 1 year 232 3,615,598 6.4
1 year 95 3,701,824 2.6
2 years 66 3,768,012 1.8
3 years 52 3,690,129 1.4
4 years 55 3,823,751 1.4
5 years 34 3,880,536 0.9
6 years 31 3,965,148 0.8
7 years 28 4,039,527 0.7
8 years 28 4,139,497 0.7
9 years 25 4,172,964 0.6
10 years 22 4,157,482 0.5
11 years 28 4,140,092 0.7
12 years 35 4,144,127 0.8
13 years 65 4,187,019 1.6
14 years 140 4,272,434 3.3
15 years 223 4,363,695 5.1
16 years 338 4,532,690 7.5
17 years 462 4,538,195 10.2
18 years 573 4,484,083 12.8
19 years 552 4,457,162 12.4
20 years 545 4,485,953 12.1
21 years 537 4,448,786 12.1
22 years 479 4,433,302 10.8
23 years 543 4,521,959 12.0
24 years 507 4,531,936 11.2
25 years 524 4,466,652 11.7
26 years 475 4,458,803 10.7
27 years 436 4,467,098 9.8
28 years 479 4,496,349 10.7
29 years 483 4,570,974 10.6
30 years 503 4,660,190 10.8
31 years 496 4,727,791 10.5
32 years 496 4,825,625 10.3
33 years 496 4,888,155 10.1
34 years 489 4,892,227 10.0
35 years 514 4,747,023 10.8
36 years 429 4,654,566 9.2
37 years 464 4,594,689 10.1
38 years 446 4,593,655 9.7
39 years 411 4,580,139 9.0
40 years 380 4,477,041 8.5
41 years 368 4,530,695 8.1
42 years 352 4,512,020 7.8
43 years 406 4,438,616 9.1
44 years 367 4,410,780 8.3
45 years 316 4,224,803 7.5
46 years 299 4,124,267 7.2
47 years 267 4,066,171 6.6
48 years 229 3,922,082 5.8
49 years 266 3,956,726 6.7
50 years 230 3,874,966 5.9
51 years 240 3,919,253 6.1
52 years 220 4,099,042 5.4
53 years 258 4,333,802 6.0
54 years 199 4,259,244 4.7
55 years 192 4,095,002 4.7
56 years 173 4,001,246 4.3
57 years 158 4,006,737 3.9
58 years 161 4,055,499 4.0
59 years 162 4,201,444 3.9
60 years 149 4,291,837 3.5
61 years 159 4,283,092 3.7
62 years 142 4,285,877 3.3
63 years 136 4,265,138 3.2
64 years 136 4,175,853 3.3
65 years 123 4,084,252 3.0
66 years 99 4,036,168 2.5
67 years 98 3,949,096 2.5
68 years 92 3,760,814 2.4
69 years 85 3,659,141 2.3
70 years 88 3,513,149 2.5
71 years 73 3,348,806 2.2
72 years 72 3,201,975 2.2
73 years 76 3,027,929 2.5
74 years 52 2,863,632 1.8
75 years 60 2,761,456 2.2
76 years 54 2,672,363 2.0
77 years 52 2,783,899 1.9
78 years 40 1,941,012 2.1
79 years 48 1,834,596 2.6
80 years 35 1,751,366 2.0
81 years 37 1,731,062 2.1
82 years 23 1,445,143 1.6
83 years 30 1,260,479 2.4
84 years 19 1,118,437 1.7
85 years 17 N/A N/A
86 years 17 N/A N/A
87 years Suppressed N/A N/A
88 years 15 N/A N/A
89 years Suppressed N/A N/A
90 years 10 N/A N/A
91 years Suppressed N/A N/A
92 years Suppressed N/A N/A
93 years Suppressed N/A N/A
94 years Suppressed N/A N/A
95 years Suppressed N/A N/A
96 years Suppressed N/A N/A
97 years Suppressed N/A N/A
98 years 0 N/A N/A
99 years 0 N/A N/A
100+ years Suppressed N/A N/A
Not Stated Suppressed N/A N/A
Total 20,162 340,110,988 5.9
2024 reported rape victimizations by recorded age Source: FBI Crime Data Explorer, 2024 national NIBRS master file (nibrs-2024.zip), downloaded September 2026.
Recorded age (years) Victimizations
0 130
1 235
2 556
3 1,277
4 1,779
5 1,882
6 1,732
7 1,623
8 1,667
9 1,627
10 1,753
11 2,164
12 3,590
13 5,115
14 6,376
15 7,429
16 6,734
17 5,460
18 4,464
19 3,846
20 3,292
21 3,214
22 2,947
23 2,638
24 2,563
25 2,395
26 2,335
27 2,188
28 2,149
29 2,056
30 2,027
31 1,934
32 1,884
33 1,870
34 1,898
35 1,820
36 1,698
37 1,628
38 1,537
39 1,425
40 1,394
41 1,309
42 1,208
43 1,121
44 1,016
45 1,046
46 882
47 831
48 687
49 660
50 631
51 563
52 544
53 515
54 487
55 403
56 353
57 374
58 379
59 333
60 274
61 252
62 255
63 236
64 195
65 191
66 158
67 159
68 137
69 98
70 103
71 88
72 81
73 76
74 65
75 65
76 56
77 58
78 36
79 43
80 50
81 50
82 46
83 39
84 30
85 27
86 23
87 20
88 22
89 15
90 18
91 14
92 6
93 7
94 10
95 7
96 5
97 6
98 5
99+ 32
Unknown age 925
All ages, including unknown 121,656
Ages 15–30 55,737
0 0 votes
Article Rating

 

Follow John R Lott Jr. on:

VIEW MORE FROM John R Lott Jr.
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments